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Power Systems Research South America is the leading source of information on engines and power equipment in this dynamic and growing region. We have the broadest and deepest knowledge of South American power product markets available, which provides our customers with the best opportunity for growth. Our local team of industry professionals is supported by our analysts in key markets around the world. Whether you need detailed global data, forecasts or customized local market studies, we can provide you with Powerful Possibilities. Let’s start today.
Chile has announced plans to produce US$ 30 billion in green Hydrogen for export by 2050. This involves using the mining industry equipment traditionally powered by diesel in fuel cell powered equipment to make the bridge for current state to future state.
PSR Analysis: There are several roadblocks as technology improvement needs, energy cost and investment source for the initiative. So far it sounds like a campaign promise rather than a robust initiative. However, the technology use is progressively closer to reality. PSR
Fabio Ferraresi is Director- Business Development South America, for Power Systems Research
Published in Automotive Business, August, 26, 2020
1. INTRODUCTION
The use of diesel in Commercial Vehicles and its alternatives has been studied and discussed globally over the past two decades. We have updated future trends annually based on the new platforms in our data and new models in development allowing us a 10-year horizon. In August 2019 we published an article on the subject for Automotive Business Brazil, which is now updating.
Carlos Briganti
In the 2019 article we said that fossil diesel propulsion for commercial vehicles would be exposed to several alternatives and therefore the 20s decade would be a decade of significant changes, justifying yearly monitoring of the subject.
This whole range of studies was then impacted by COVID-19, a new event at the beginning of this decade that is another factor of change in this complex subject.
With the problems caused by COVID-19, ANFAEA is lobbying to postpone the introduction of PROCONVE P8 – an emissions regulation that will make the Brazil emissions level similar to Euro VI.
Fabio Ferraresi
ANFAVEA argues that the postponement is needed because of delays in testing and engineering development caused by COVID-19. The level of investment necessary also has increased.
PSR Analysis: The Brazilian government is not likely to approve the postponement and the deadline date of 2022 probably will be kept. It is important to Brazil to be current in terms of emissions as Brazil is a hub of production for South America, and the ability to export will be jeopardized if the level of production technology declines. PSR
Fabio Ferraresi is Director Business Development South America for Power Systems Research
The new specs as per ANP 087/20 resolution determines the minimum density of 715 kg/m3 and minimum octanes of 92 RON. In January 2022, it will be 93 RON. The Ethanol mix was kept in 27% for regular gasoline and 25% for premium gasolines.
PSR Analysis: With the use of Ethanol in the mix, Brazil gasoline specs get closer to Europe and USA. The goal is to improve the consumption 6% and reduce failures in engines. This may reduce barriers for imported engines and reduce the cost of “tropicalization” of engines.
Fabio Ferraresi is Director Business Development South America for Power Systems Research
Construction Equipment Internal Sales in Brazil from January thru May grew 35% over the same period of 2019. The Brazilian Machinery Builders´ Association (ABIMAQ) expects 2020 sales to hit 20,000 machines, 15% more than in 2019.
PSR Analysis: The Construction segment was the less affected by the pandemic than some other segments. The interest reduction directed investment to real state, especially housing, and some measures, such as the new regulation for sanitation, recently approved by the parliament, will boost the Construction business in 2020 and more significantly in the coming years. PSR
After the first sale of NG trucks at Fenatran in October 2019, Scania has sold 22 more, including 18 to Pepsico. The forecast of 100 NG Trucks to be sold this year has been reduced because of the pandemic effect.
John Deere announced the start of production of G series of Graders in Brazil in the coming months. It had previously imported these units. With the movement, John Deere will attend the South American Market with 90% of products made in Brazil.
PSR Analysis: The decision of nationalization started in 2018 and makes more sense with recent local currency depreciation. With this movement, Deere will be more competitive in delivery time and it will have some room for margins and pricing variation, what will lead to a moderate growth of share in the market, what is already reflected in our databases forecast.
Power Systems Research published in the June 13 issue of Automotive Business magazine a high level update on perspectives of MHV and Off-Highway segments. See the article at the link below and translated presentation.
PSR Analysis: Although ANFAVEA published a decreased forecast, we believe that the decrease will be lower than the Light Vehicles decrease. Metrics we follow, such as Diesel consumption and the number of Vehicles going through tolls by weight category, show a lower impact in Commercial Vehicles. Other factors: a smaller than expected reduction during the pandemic isolation, agribusiness remaining strong and a lower than expected impact on mining/construction.
Carlos Briganti Is Managing Director, Power Systems Research – SA
Power Systems Research analyzes markets of trucks, buses, agricultural and construction machines
Brazil deaths caused by coronavirus increased sharply in April and May 2020.
Slump Caused by COVID-19 Will Last into 2021
The overall slump in production and sales of heavy commercial vehicles (trucks and buses) as well as for agricultural and construction machines should last throughout this year; these segments won’t recover until 2021. PSR
The first units of the 3.5-ton LCV have been assembled at the GEFCO Plant in Guaíba-RS as the company begins producing under a manufacturing contract for Foton.
Despite this news, the speed of the development of the new line will be reduced by COVID-19 and related factors, including the social restrictions and workforce mobility, the impact in the LCV segment and also the lack of parts from China, major part of the content of these Trucks. PSR
