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Construction Equipment Internal Sales in Brazil from January thru May grew 35% over the same period of 2019. The Brazilian Machinery Builders´ Association (ABIMAQ) expects 2020 sales to hit 20,000 machines, 15% more than in 2019.
PSR Analysis: The Construction segment was the less affected by the pandemic than some other segments. The interest reduction directed investment to real state, especially housing, and some measures, such as the new regulation for sanitation, recently approved by the parliament, will boost the Construction business in 2020 and more significantly in the coming years. PSR
After the first sale of NG trucks at Fenatran in October 2019, Scania has sold 22 more, including 18 to Pepsico. The forecast of 100 NG Trucks to be sold this year has been reduced because of the pandemic effect.
John Deere announced the start of production of G series of Graders in Brazil in the coming months. It had previously imported these units. With the movement, John Deere will attend the South American Market with 90% of products made in Brazil.
PSR Analysis: The decision of nationalization started in 2018 and makes more sense with recent local currency depreciation. With this movement, Deere will be more competitive in delivery time and it will have some room for margins and pricing variation, what will lead to a moderate growth of share in the market, what is already reflected in our databases forecast.
Power Systems Research published in the June 13 issue of Automotive Business magazine a high level update on perspectives of MHV and Off-Highway segments. See the article at the link below and translated presentation.
PSR Analysis: Although ANFAVEA published a decreased forecast, we believe that the decrease will be lower than the Light Vehicles decrease. Metrics we follow, such as Diesel consumption and the number of Vehicles going through tolls by weight category, show a lower impact in Commercial Vehicles. Other factors: a smaller than expected reduction during the pandemic isolation, agribusiness remaining strong and a lower than expected impact on mining/construction.
Carlos Briganti Is Managing Director, Power Systems Research – SA
Power Systems Research analyzes markets of trucks, buses, agricultural and construction machines
Brazil deaths caused by coronavirus increased sharply in April and May 2020.
Slump Caused by COVID-19 Will Last into 2021
The overall slump in production and sales of heavy commercial vehicles (trucks and buses) as well as for agricultural and construction machines should last throughout this year; these segments won’t recover until 2021. PSR
The first units of the 3.5-ton LCV have been assembled at the GEFCO Plant in Guaíba-RS as the company begins producing under a manufacturing contract for Foton.
Despite this news, the speed of the development of the new line will be reduced by COVID-19 and related factors, including the social restrictions and workforce mobility, the impact in the LCV segment and also the lack of parts from China, major part of the content of these Trucks. PSR
Different from the segments with 4 wheels or more, Motorcycles plants worked normally in March. The total production has been of 296 k motorcycles in the first quarter, about 7% above the same period of 2019. However, the stops in this sector started March 30 and will remain until the beginning of May.
Although motorcycles are also a way of delivering packages in big Cities, sales of motorcycles in Brazil have a closer relationship with lower income individuals who see motorcycles as an alternative to bad public transportation or even animal transportation in rural locations.
This segment of the society has a high number of informal jobs, mostly related to service, heavily impacted by the social restriction measurements. Therefore, the impact on this business for the remainder of the year should be considerably high, despite of the growth in the first quarter. PSR
In an interview April 9 with AutoData, the CEOs of 4Truck and Librelato pointed to a heavy recovery for transportation and the trailers business in September. The companies seem optimistic about the recovery from the COVID-19 crisis in Brazil.
The trailer segment, as well as the class 7 and class 8 segments, were enjoying a growth trend before the COVID-19 social restrictions were imposed. In the beginning of the quarantine period, the number of heavy vehicles passing through main roads tolls was not reduced, different from the light and medium segments.
The rational is that a reduction of GDP is concentrated in the Services segment, that does not impact heavily on Transportation. At the same time, Agricultural production, a segment that has more impact on Transportation, should remain stable or grow. In our analysis it is too early to define the impact on Transportation, although some Transportation companies already are reporting reduced business. PSR
Marcopolo started producing again April 13 after a break forced by COVID-19 control measures. The plants of Caxias do Sul and Duque de Caxias are producing again with lowered output. The number of workers is reduced and the space between people is expanded, among other measures for safety purposes. The São Mateus plant has not reopened.
The current scenario points to a heavy impact on the Bus market due to reduced customer traffic that puts reduces fleet owner revenue. On the other hand, this segment is often boosted by government programs, like “Caminhos da Escola” in Brazil.
The actions for recovery after the crisis may lower the impact substantially, especially in a scenario where government spending is no longer limited to the approved budget, there is strong pent up demand for school buses and actions to stimulate industry and jobs are badly needed. PSR
Fabio Ferraresi is Director-Business Development SA
ST. PAUL, MN–A team of international analysts from Power Systems Research (PSR) analyzed the impact of COVID-19 on the global production of Off-Highway Equipment and MH-Duty Vehicles in several regions today.
The team examined the impact of the coronavirus in North America, Europe, Asia, India, and South America for the remainder of 2020 and into Q1 2021. Download your copy of the presentation here.
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