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MotorIndia Sponsors Commercial Vehicle Webinar
MotorIndia Magazine, one of India’s leading publications devoted to commercial vehicles, recently held an important panel discussion on the state of the country’s CV industry.
Jinal Shah The live webinar panel discussion June 3, 2020, was moderated by Jinal Shah, Regional Director-South Asia, for Power Systems Research.
Shah began with a market prediction of a 45-50% drop in CV sales in 2020 over 2019 figures, necessarily taking the industry back by a decade in terms…
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COVID-19 2020 North American Impact: Ag, -12%, Construction, -14%
HDMA-PSR COVID Webinar Presentation
COVID-19 continues to batter production of off-highway equipment as we continue to move through 2020. The effects of the virus on Agricultural and Construction equipment production in North America were analyzed in a June 17 webinar presented by the Heavy Duty Manufacturers Association (HDMA) and Power Systems Research (PSR). The webinar updated information presented in PSR’s webinar in April.
Jim Downey The PSR webinar team was Jim Downey, PSR vice president-global data products , and Yosyf Sherementa, PhD, PSR director-product management and customer experience.
PSR projects AG to be down 9.4% and CN to be down 11.3% when comparing global production for this year (2020) to last year (2019).
China and India which have the largest volumes for ag machinery are the lower side for production percentage drops this year. China which is also the largest producer of construction equipment is not expecting a decline this year.
Yosyf Sheremeta A slight recovery for Construction equipment is expected in 2021, but not until 2022 for Agricultural machinery. Ag sector recovery will ultimately depend on overall economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic.
The construction segment will not return to pre-virus production volumes for another few years, at best. We’re looking out to 2024 or possibly 2025 to get back to 1.48 million units.
We don’t see a V-shaped type scenario on the horizon in North America, but rather recovery will look like something between a “U” and an “L.” Somewhat of a swoosh shape or upward sloping L. Economic activity will slowly return to a sense of normalcy as the curve of new COVID-19 cases flattens.
Government support and intervention will be needed, and stimulus will provide an economic backstop. We expect modest growth in 2021. Pent-up demand and continued economic stimulus should also help with rebound.
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Samuel Libaire Wins Power Systems Research $2,500 Eagan Scholarship
Samuel Libaire, a senior at Eagan High School, Eagan, Minnesota, has received the 2020 Power Systems Research $2,500 academic scholarship.
He will use the scholarship to study Computer Science at Vanderbilt University.
“My favorite subject is computer science,” says Samuel. “It is one of the only subjects that can have multiple solutions to a single problem while also proving instantly that some don’t work. In many sciences, theories are never 100% true, but in computer science, a program either works perfectly or it simply doesn’t.”
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Pandemic Disruptions Hinder Auto Battery Adoption
My other article in this month’s issue of PowerTALK News describes how home battery systems, even though they are not themselves viable products for most consumers, still benefit from a virtuous cycle of product improvement and investment because of the relative success of battery-powered vehicles and other battery-powered products.
Tyler Wiegert But the COVID-19 pandemic has not missed those drivers. Venture Beat magazine reports that investors are largely avoiding lithium this year, preferring to safeguard cash until the economy starts to improve. The delay in funding could have several knock-on effects.
One is consolidation in the industry. Ganfeng Lithium is picking up a lithium project from Lithium Americas, a smaller operation. Fewer, larger players in the market later on might have price consequences for lithium adoption after the economy improves and demand for those goods increases.
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The Lithium Revolution Has Yet To Come Home
This article is being written the week after SpaceX successfully brought two astronauts to the International Space Station, which has been celebrated across the country as a great achievement for the United States Space program.I certainly share the feeling that it is good to be back in space, but there is also this lingering feeling that 50 years after we landed on the moon, we might be somewhere further along than just getting back into space on American-piloted rockets.
Tyler Wiegert Combining that with a pandemic that has brought us to a public health and economic situation more appropriate for the early 20th century than the early 21st century, and protests over racial inequality issues that many hoped we’d be further along with 60 years after the Civil Rights movement, it feels appropriate to reflect on the phenomenon of future-hype.
The blog article Why Have Home Battery Forecasts Been Staggeringly Wrong for Years? examines the future-hype specifically around home battery systems. Specifically, why were predictions made only four years ago, not 50 or 60 or 100 years ago, so wrong about where home battery systems would be now?
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MotorIndia Sponsors Panel Discussion
MotorIndia is sponsoring a panel discussion of leading industry experts across the commercial vehicle value chain to share their insights on the short- to mid-term challenges in the truck industry.
Jinal Shah The event will be held Wednesday, June 3, at 5:00 pm IST.
The panel will be moderated by Jinal Shah, Regional Director, South Asia Operations, for Power Systems Research (PSR), a leading provider of global production data for engines and equipment.
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COVID-19 Webinar Scheduled With HDMA
Power Systems Research will work with the Heavy Duty Manufacturers Association (HDMA.org) to present a one-hour webinar examining the impact of COVID-19 on the industrial segments of Agricultural and Construction in North America.
The webinar will be presented Wednesday, June 17. Watch hdma.org and powersys.com for details. PSR
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A New Class of Hybrids
The word “hybrid” in the power generation universe has generally been understood to mean a fossil-fuel engine supplemented by another power source, usually a renewable.
Tyler Wiegert Then, the word grew to include vehicles and equipment that ran primarily on battery power but could be switched to a smaller engine that would recharge the battery while it ran.
Now, we are entering a time when “hybrid” includes drive systems that are primarily renewable-based and supplemented by an additional renewable system.
In this sphere, alternative power has primarily meant batteries and hydrogen fuel cells; one of the major impediments to wide adoption has always been range.
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Vertical Integration Is Key for Competitive Battery Vehicles
R&D World magazine recently examined the global market for lithium-ion batteries and concluded that there could very well be a shortage in the next decade. They projected that recent investments will ensure supply keeps ahead of demand for at least the next two years, but that the demand for lithium in 2030 will be 2.3x higher than the global output in 2019, and investments may not be happening at the pace needed to meet it.
Tyler Wiegert The main bottleneck is that it takes 5-10 years to bring a new lithium or cobalt mine online, but their low prices right now remove some of the incentive to make those investments.
In the absence or shortage of those investments, control of current resources will play a critical role in the production costs of lithium-powered equipment, including on-highway vehicles. In this area, as in many others, Tesla appears to be a leader. The electric car maker has made a number of moves recently to pursue vertical integration, including, most recently, signing a supply deal with Hanwha for battery production equipment. But they are also making moves to secure ownership of the raw materials needed for battery production.
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PSR’s Coronavirus Special Report
Power Systems Research has created a Coronavirus Special Report detailing the impact of COVID-19 on the global production of Off-Highway and Medium/Heavy Truck Engine and Equipment in 2020.
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