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Near Term Recession Fears Recede in North America
SUMMARY. The North American economy remained stable in 2019 and pure economic conditions as well as fundamentals in the region were favorable. Most industries performed very well, and the short-term outlook remains stable to flat for most market segments. However, we see many new developments that could suggest a shift in the trend.
Yosyf Sheremeta Consumer confidence declined slightly in December, following a moderate increase in November. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index stood at 126.5 in December, 1.4 points higher than in September 2019.
Per Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board: “While consumers’ assessment of current conditions improved, their expectations declined, driven primarily by a softening in their short-term outlook regarding jobs and financial prospects. While the economy hasn’t shown signs of further weakening, there is little to suggest that growth, and in particular consumer spending, will gain momentum in early 2020.”
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PG&E Blackouts Lead to Best Fourth Quarter for Mid-Range Power in Five Years
SUMMARY: Gen-set sales in Q4 2019 rose 3.5% from Q3 2019, driven primarily by growth in the middle power ranges. The 21-50kW range experienced the fastest growth at 7.5%, followed by 10-20kW at 3.7% and 101-300kW at 3.5%.
When looking at this growth by application, we see that standbys were the only application to experience meaningful growth this quarter, ending with a strong 7.5% increase. Unlike previous quarters, this increased demand came from more than residential consumers. Institutional and industrial consumers increased their demand by 2.5% and 3.75%, respectively. This is the strongest fourth quarter showing for these consumer types in the last five years.
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Winter is Coming and Consumers Are Ready
SUMMARY: Gen-set sales in Q3 2019 rose 7% from Q2 2019, due to a continued strong demand for standby power systems. Standby systems in both the residential and commercial sectors drove this growth (the highest QoQ growth of the year so far), with the 10-20kW range increasing sales by nearly 12% and the 21-50kW, 51-100, and 101-300kW ranges growing 5-7%.
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Winter is Coming…(and Consumers are Ready). Q3 2019 Report
SUMMARY: Gen-set sales in Q3 2019 rose 7% from Q2 2019, due to a continued strong demand for standby power systems. Standby systems in both the residential and commercial sectors drove the 7% growth (the highest QoQ growth of the year so far), with the 10-20kW range increasing sales by nearly 12% and the 21-50kW, 51-100, and 101-300kW ranges growing 5-7%.
On a Year-on-Year basis, overall unit sales for Q3 2019 were up 2.9% compared to sales levels in Q3 2018.
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Global Economic Fundamentals Strong, But Uncertainties Linger
This report is excerpted from the Q3 2019 Update Bulletin prepared for clients of Power Systems Research, Oct. 1, 2019.
SUMMARY. If you were to look at the latest global macro-economic fundamentals, you would see a strong and healthy economy and a rosy picture. On the other hand, if you follow the latest updates on key industries and their players worldwide, optimism is not that strong.
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Trouble in India’s Motown
This report first appeared in the September 2019 issue of PowerTALK.
The bad times in the India automobile market started with the slowdown in Q4 2018, triggered by the NBFC (Non-Banking Financial Companies) crisis. Since then it has been 10 consecutive months of hard times for almost all automobile segments. All the segments in the country, be it passenger cars or commercial vehicles, have registered a decline.
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Welcome to the New Gilded Age
This forecast appeared in the September 2019 issue of Diesel Progress magazine.
SUMMARY. The underlying weak conditions in the global economic picture could put pressure on the North American power generation industry for the remainder of 2019 and through most of 2020. We forecast little or no growth for the industry through 2020.
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Welcome to the New Gilded Age of Gen-Sets
This forecast appeared in the September 2019 issue of Diesel Progress magazine.
SUMMARY. The underlying weak conditions in the global economic picture could put pressure on the North American power generation industry for the remainder of 2019 and through most of 2020. We forecast little or no growth for the industry through 2020.
Even though the power generation production market was up slightly (0.9% in 2018-2019), we see it declining about 1% over the next year.
Tyler Wiegert For those of you a few years removed from your high school U.S. History courses, the original Gilded Age was a period covering the 1870s-1890s that was marked by astonishing economic growth. Driven by the expansion of industrialization in the North and West, facilitated by growing railroad networks, real wages grew an enviable 60%.
But Mark Twain dubbed this period the “Gilded Age” rather than the “Golden Age,” because it was also marked by extreme poverty, and he represented it with gilded, decaying apple. The shiny outward appearance of growth was masking a rotten core of massive inequality.
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MotorIndia Magazine: India CV Market Facing Lower Demand in 2019
The India CV market is facing lower demand in 2019, reports MotorIndia magazine in its August 2019 Market Outlook issue.
CV Link is a comprehensive database updated quarterly that covers the CV market.
After a blockbuster growth in 2017 and 2018, writes Shah, growth that was largely driven by demand for tipper trucks due to the new infrastructure, mining projects and fleet replacement; the party ended in Q4 of 2018.
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Seasonal Trends Drive Strong Q2 2019
SUMMARY: Gen-set sales in Q2 2019 rose 4.3% from Q1 2019, due to increases in commercial demand and demand for standbys that are typical for Q2 as construction season and hurricane season begin. Broken out by kW range, sales increases were on the lower end of normal in the 51-100kW and 101-300kW ranges, but overall sales were still driven by typical growth in the 101kW-1MW ranges, typical of the construction season.
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