Reports

St. Paul, MN — The Power Systems Research Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) increased from 113 to 127, or 12.4%, for the three-month period ended June 30, 2018, from the Q1 2018. The year-over-year (Q2 2017 to Q2 2018) gain for the PSR-TPI was 124 to 127, or 2.4%.

The PSR-TPI measures truck production globally and across six regions: North America, China, Europe, South America, Japan & Korea and Emerging Markets.

This data comes from CV Link™, the proprietary database maintained by Power Systems Research.

Global Index: On a global basis, commercial vehicle demand is expected to remain strong through the rest of the year and into 2019. Outside of Japan and Korea, production levels are relatively strong or are showing good improvement in all other regions.

North America: In 2018, medium and heavy commercial truck production is expected to increase by 14.7% over last year, driven by extremely strong class 8 demand along with continued strength in the medium duty (class 4-7) segment.  Production levels for class 8 trucks are expected to increase by 26.6% this year while medium truck production is expected to remain strong and increase by 1.3% over 2017.

Europe: Medium and heavy truck production is expected to increase by 5.4% in Greater Europe this year over 2017.  Production in Western Europe should increase by 2.6% while production in Eastern Europe could increase by 15.2% as the fleets continue to replace their aging trucks.  After weak demand in Eastern Europe over the past few years a recovery in demand is in full swing.  Demand in Western Europe continues to be relatively strong this year.

South Asia: Medium and heavy commercial truck demand in South Asia is expected to improve this year over 2017.  Production for medium and heavy trucks should increase by 15.1%, led by stronger demand in India.  Production in India is expected to increase by 20% this year after a soft 2017 primarily due to the implementation of the BS-IV emission regulations which increased the cost of the trucks.  Additional infrastructure spending is expected to boost demand in India during the next few years.

South America: After several years with very low medium and heavy truck demand, domestic and export sales started to improve last year and production in South America is expected to increase by 20% in 2018 driven by Brazil.  While truck exports are a main reason for this increase, domestic demand has also significantly improved during the past year.  Production in Venezuela has stopped.

Japan/Korea: Medium and heavy truck demand is expected to continue its decline by falling 7.4% this year as softness in domestic demand continues to impede the manufacturers.  Japanese production should decline by 7.5% while production in South Korea should fall by 5.3% compared with last year.  Production continues to be transferred from Japan and Korea closer to their traditional export markets.

Greater China: Through the first four months of 2018, relatively strong medium and heavy truck demand continued in China and is expected to remain at replacement levels through the rest of the year.  Medium and heavy truck production is expected to decline by 8.3% this year while heavy truck production is expected to decline by 11% compared to 2017.  With the introduction of the GB1589 regulations to control overloading of trucks last year, commercial truck demand very strong in 2017. 

Detailed comments are contained for each region with a corresponding regional graph in the attached downloadable PDF.

The PSR Truck Production Index is produced by Chris Fisher, PSR Senior Commercial Vehicle Analyst and Jim Downey, PSR Vice President- Global Data Products.  PSR

The Power Systems Research Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) decreased from 114 to 107, or 6.1%, for the three-month period ended March 31, 2018, from Q4 2017. The year-over-year (Q1 2017 to Q1 2018) loss for the PSR-TPI was one point (108 to 107), or .93%.

The PSR-TPI measures truck production globally and across six regions: North America, China, Europe, South America, Japan & Korea and Emerging Markets.

This data comes from CV Link™, the proprietary database maintained by Power Systems Research.

Global Index: Commercial vehicle demand in 2018, is expected to be particularly strong in North America, Brazil, Russia and India while demand is expected to decline sharply in China after very strong sales in 2017. With the exception of China and Japan/Korea, medium and heavy commercial vehicle demand in the other regions is trending higher this year.

North America: In 2018, medium and heavy commercial truck production is expected to increase by 13.8% over last year, driven by extremely strong class 8 demand combined with continued strength in the medium duty (class 4-7) segment.  Production levels for class 8 trucks are expected to exceed 300,000 trucks this year as a result of a very strong economy and high freight demand.  Demand in the medium duty segment will be driven in part by continued strength in the vocational segment.

Detailed comments are contained for each region with a corresponding regional graph in the attached downloadable PDF.

The PSR Truck Production Index is produced by Chris Fisher, PSR Senior Commercial Vehicle Analyst and Jim Downey, PSR Vice President- Global Data Products.  PSR

The outlook for global truck production in the class 4-8 looks very promising for 2018 as it continues a strong growth pattern established in 2017. Even previously struggling countries such as Russia, Brazil and Turkey saw very positive signs in 2017 and are looking for continued growth this year.  North America and Europe also are expected to have a good year in 2018.

With the exception of Japan Korea and possibly China, all regions are expected to see modest to strong demand for medium and heavy commercial trucks in 2018.

The Power Systems Research Global Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) increased from 111 to 114, or 2.7%, for the three-month period ended December 31, 2017. The year-over-year (Q4 2016 to the Q4 2017) gain for the PSR-TPI was 8.6%, increasing from 105 to 114.

The PSR-TPI measures truck production globally and across six regions: North America, China, Europe, South America, Japan & Korea and Emerging Markets.

This data comes from CV Link™, the proprietary database maintained by Power Systems Research.

Looking at individual regions, this is what we see for 2018:

North America: When final numbers for 2017 are tabulated, production of medium and heavy commercial trucks is expected to increase by 9.3%, compared to 2016.  The class 8 heavy truck segment continues to improve, and production is expected to finish approximately 11.5% higher than 2016, driven by high order intake.   The medium truck (class 4-7) segment is expected to remain strong with production increasing by 6.9% over 2016, primarily driven by a strong vocational segment.  Demand for class 8 trucks declined in 2016 but stabilized in 2017, and production is expected to reach 300,000 trucks in 2018.

Europe: In Greater Europe, production for medium and heavy commercial vehicles is expected to increase by 9.7% in 2017, compared with 2016.  After a relatively strong couple of years in Western Europe, demand has moderated somewhat, but production improved by 5% compared with 2016.  After the past few years of political and economic strife, truck demand improved greatly in 2017 and is expected to finish the year 35.8% higher than 2016.  This is due to a combination of companies upgrading their fleets and economic expansion.

South Asia: With the exception of India, all of the countries of South Asia are expected to have a good year for medium and heavy commercial vehicle demand.  Demand has slowed in India with the strict implementation of the BS-IV emission regulations on April 1, which increased the cost of the vehicles by 6% – 10%.  There was very little truck pre-buy during the Q1 2017, and there was a sharp decline in demand during Q2 2017.  However, demand appears to have stabilized in the third quarter.  For the year, medium and heavy commercial truck demand is expected to decline by 1.8% compared to 2016.

South America: Medium and heavy commercial vehicle production has finally stabilized in Brazil albeit, at historically low levels with production expected to increase by 25% compared to 2016. 

Japan/Korea: Domestic and export demand for medium and heavy commercial vehicles are expected to decline in 2017 compared with 2016.  Production for medium and heavy commercial vehicles is expected to decline by 3.3% in 2017. 

Greater China: Production of medium and heavy commercial vehicles is expected to increase by 28.3% in 2017.  In 2017, China started to strictly enforce the GB1589 regulations to control overloading of trucks. This change will reduce freight hauling capacities by 20% thus driving the need to increase truck capacity in the market.

Detailed comments are contained for each region with a corresponding regional graph in the attached downloadable PDF. PSR

Chris Fisher is the senior commercial vehicle analyst at Power Systems Research

Jim Downey is vice president -global data products at Power Systems Research

St. Paul, MN (October 12, 2017)— The Power Systems Research global Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) deceased from 116 to 105, or -9.5%, for the three-month period ended September 30, 2017, from Q2 2017. However, the year-over-year (Q3 2016 to Q3 2017) gain for the PSR-TPI was 101 to 105, or 3.9%.

Overall, the global commercial truck industry is stronger than it has been in a number of years and is expected to continue to be strong moving into 2018.  While there are still concerns about regional economies such as South America and Greater China, the global economies continue to improve.

The PSR-TPI measures truck production globally and across six regions: North America, China, Europe, South America, Japan & Korea and Emerging Markets.

This data comes from CV Link™, the proprietary database maintained by Power Systems Research.

While production in China also is expected to increase and South Asia also is expected to post gains, India is not expected to do as well. Japan and Korea are expected to decline this year.  

With the exception of India, all of the countries of South Asia are expected to have a good year for medium and heavy commercial vehicle demand.  Demand has slowed in India with the strict implementation of the BS-IV emission regulations on April 1,  which increased the cost of the vehicles by 6% – 10%.  There was very little truck pre-buy during Q1 2017, and there was a sharp decline in demand during the second quarter.  However, demand appears to have stabilized in the third quarter.

Medium and heavy commercial truck demand are starting to see improvements in countries such as Brazil and Russia in which we expect to see double digit growth this year after a number of years with dismal demand levels.  Along with a soft economy and the implementation of Euro VI emission regulations last year, Turkey is still struggling with demand levels.

In North America, medium and heavy commercial truck production is expected to increase by 2.3% this year compared with 2016.  The class 8 heavy truck segment continues to improve and production is expected to finish slightly higher than 2016.   The medium truck (class 4-7) segment is expected to remain strong with production increasing by 5.2% over last year primarily driven by a strong vocational segment.  Demand for class 8 trucks declined last year but demand is improving and is expected to continue into 2018.

Also seeing improvement is Greater Europe. Here, production for medium and heavy commercial vehicles is expected to increase by 5.5% this year compared with 2016.  After a relatively strong couple of years in Western Europe, demand has moderated somewhat, but production has improved 3.6% compared to last year.  After very low demand in Eastern Europe during the past few years, the market has stabilized and is expected to improve by 15.3% this year as fleets continue to upgrade their equipment. 

Detailed comments are contained for each region with a corresponding regional graph in the attached downloadable PDF.   PSR

Chris Fisher is the senior commercial vehicle analyst at Power Systems Research

Jim Downey is vice president -global data products at Power Systems Research

ST. PAUL, MN (JULY 14, 2017)—The Power Systems Research Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) increased from 100 to 114, or 14%, for the three-month period ended June 30, 2017, from Q1 2017. The year-over-year (Q2 2016 to Q2 2017) gain for the PSR-TPI was, 111 to 114, or 2.7%.

The PSR-TPI measures truck production globally and across six regions: North America, China, Europe, South America, Japan & Korea and Emerging Markets. This data comes from CV Link™, the proprietary database of commercial vehicles maintained by Power Systems Research.

SUMMARY: While the global economy is mixed, the overall trend for economic growth remains positive and bodes well for commercial vehicle demand. Commodity prices continue to hinder growth primarily due to overcapacity in the Chinese market.

Regionally, except for South America, India and Turkey regional commercial vehicle demand is typically at historic replacement levels and are expected to remain that way throughout the remainder of the year. After seeing a couple of poor years for demand in Russia, it appears commercial vehicle sales have rebounded.

Detailed comments are contained for each region with a corresponding regional graph in the attached downloadable PDF.

Chris Fisher is the senior commercial vehicle analyst at Power Systems Research

Jim Downey is vice president -global data products at Power Systems Research