PowerTALK May 2018

Autonomous Vehicles Long Way Off

Readers of PowerTALK aren’t looking for autonomous vehicles to hit the roads soon, if our survey published last month is any indication.

In the April issue of PowerTALK, we asked readers, “When do you think a fully autonomous vehicle will be available in the market place?” Only 22.22% of respondents said it would happen within five years. More, 33.33%, said it would happen in the period of six to 10 years.

Other Top Stories in this issue of PowerTALK include

  • Don’t look for autonomous vehicles soon
  • NA power boat demand grows
  • Brazil Agrishow 2018 Report
  • JCB reduces backhoe production
  • Royal Enfield eyes global markets
  • Nissan to drop diesels in Europe
  • Russian car sales climb 18%

Elabuga Plant Begins Production of Bobcat B780

This article initially appeared in the February 2020 issue of PowerTALK News.

Maxim Sakov
Maxim Sakov

In January Bobcat announced local production of its B780 wheel loaders. The model will be assembled in Elabuga, Tatarstan.

“Russia is an important market for Bobcat wheel loaders, and for the company in general,” said Yaroslav Fisher, director of Bobcat’s wheel loader production, Doosan Bobcat EMEA. “(Local production and the certification of the right of mark “Made in Russia” will be done. Bobcat engineers will control all the production processes in the plant to ensure the product quality conforms with company standards.”-

Read The Article

PSR Analysis: One more localized product. At the moment it’s SKD assembly with the prospect of components being produced locally. PSR

Maxim Sakov is a Market Consultant, in Russia for Power Systems Research

CONEXPO Day 3, CONEXPO

Wacker Neuson Plate Tamper and Compactor

The batteries on these machines run 60 minutes and charge in 80 minutes, which Wacker believes is enough for a typical work day. The machines are surprisingly quiet, given the type of work they do, and they have the added benefit of not emitting fumes into deep excavations with no air flow. The shock system is sufficient that the vibrations barely reach the battery, and they’ve had no issues with vibrations affecting the batteries so far. Unlike with other larger construction applications, and more like in the lawn and garden segment, Wacker believes the demand is already there for battery-powered equipment, and customers will be the ones driving a complete transition to battery rather than OEMs.

South Korea: Hyundai and Kia Expand EV Models

According to the Hyundai Motor Group, both Hyundai and Kia plan to offer 44 eco-car models by 2025, more than half of which will be dedicated to EVs (23 models).

Akihiro Komuro
Akihito Komuro

Hyundai revealed in its 2025 strategy announced at the end of last year that it would increase EV and FCV sales to 560,000 and 110,000 units respectively. Kia has set a goal of selling 500,000 EVs and 1 million eco-cars by 2026, with 11 EV models available across all vehicle classes by 2025.

Source:            Yonhap News Agency

PSR Analysis: At present, both vehicle production and exports fell significantly in April due to the impact of COVID-19. In April, production fell 22.2% YOY and exports fell 44.3% YOY. But when we look at eco-cars, exports and domestic sales increased by 11.5% and 28.3% respectively.

Even during the predicament caused by the new coronavirus, the eco-car ratio is showing an increasing trend. Exports of EVs jumped 94.6% to a record 9,761 units. Of course, the entire South Korean auto industry is badly hurt by the ongoing corona shock.

However, even against this huge drop, Korean-branded eco-cars, including EVs, may be beginning to gain international recognition. Growth in external demand for these eco-cars will be a prerequisite for the recovery of Korean automobile production in the future. PSR

Akihiro Komuro is a Research Analyst, Far East and Southeast Asia, for Power Systems Research

AutoVAZ Shows Best Monthly Sales for 6 Years in October

During October 2020 AutoVAZ increased sales of Lada cars (including the Niva brand) by 22.5% to 37,030 vehicles. This is a best result since October 2014, when the company sold 37,788 cars.

Marketing and sales vice-president of the OEM Mr Morne has explained demand and sales growth by State and own support programs.

AutoVAZ plans to work Saturdays and holidays during November to meet low inventories of cars among dealers.    Read The Article

PSR Analysis: It appears that the grim forecast regarding automotive production in Russia related to the epidemy is not going to come true. However, there is one more factor in the growing demand. The devaluation of national currency will force people to spend their Rubles before they lose a big part of its value.    PSR

Makita Engine Products To Be Discontinued in March 2022

Makita, a major power tool company, will discontinue the production of engine products such as engine mowers, engine chainsaws, and other engine products for garden equipment at the end of March 2022. The company will concentrate its resources on its mainstay rechargeable power tools and garden equipment, for which demand is expected to increase in the future. Annual sales of engine products account for less than 2% of the total.

Source: The Nikkei

PSR Analysis: I visited Makita’s booth at the Agri Week exhibition in October. Engine models were not on exhibit and had been removed from their catalog. HIKOKI had the same situation. I forecast that battery models will account for more than 95% of the total hand tool market in 2021.

This is a sign that battery models have evolved to a level comparable to engine models, even in the power-demanding products. The engine model has a better ability in terms of long hours of continuous operation, but this is not a reason to extend the life of the engine model. Long working hours can be done by simply replacing the batteries. The fact that these batteries can be shared across a wide range of products, from chainsaws to impact drivers, has prompted the company to seek user understanding by introducing sales methods that offer lower unit prices when multiple batteries are purchased at once.   PSR

Akihiro Komuro is a Research Analyst, Far East and Southeast Asia for Power Systems Research

Haval Starts Building Motor Plant in Russia

Maxim Sakov
Maxim Sakov

Construction of the new Haval plant is based on an investment contract. The new plant, which is scheduled to start production in 2022, Haval is expected to increase localization of its cars.

The plant is located in Tula region, and its production should be enough to produce engines for more than 90% of the Haval cars sold in Russia.

Investment in the project is estimated to be about US$ 55 million (4 billion Rubles). Planned annual production capacity is 80K engines.  

Read The Article

PSR Analysis: This event is an example of the strategy to develop relationships between the Russian government and large international OEMs. Large car makers are allowed to sell their product in Russian market while they bring production capacities (and technologies) into the country.    PSR

Maxim Sakov, Market Consultant – Russia Operations for Power Systems Research

PowerTALK™ News, February 2021

Chris Fisher, senior commercial vehicle analyst at Power Systems Research, provides a forecast in the February 2021 issue of PowerTALK™ News for MHV. 

Here are more articles in this issue:

  • North America: Electric Motorcycles
  • DataPoint: Global Snowmobiles
  • Europe: Volvo Penta Plans Zero Emissions
  • South America: Brazil Vehicle Exports Up 22%
  • Taiwan: Innovation Powers Gorgoro Network
  • Japan: Honda Launches Electric Bike
  • South Korea: Hyundai Offers Custom EVs
  • Indonesia: New Tesla Investment?
  • India: Union 2021 Budget Misses Mark
  • Russia: KAMAZ Plans EV Buses

DATAPOINT: 2021 NA Production of Tractors

101,500 units is the estimate by Power Systems Research of the number of tractors to be produced in North America  during 2021. In this report, we consider North America to include Canada, Mexico and the United States.

This information comes from industry interviews and from two proprietary databases maintained by Power Systems Research: EnginLink™ , which provides information on engines, and OE Link™, a database of equipment manufacturers.

Market Share: With combined plant totals of 75% Deere leads in production of AG tractors in North America with about 63,200 units. In second position is Kubota (8,000 units) with 9.5%. Third is Case with about 8%.

Worldwide Distribution: Canada exports about 75% of its North American Ag Tractor production, Mexico, about 60%, and the United States, up to 45% of its total production.

Trends: In 2020, production of Ag tractors in North America decreased nearly 24% to only 84,600 units.  Production is expected to rebound 20% in 2021 to more than 101,500 units.  COVID-19 related factors played a role in the decline last year, especially for parts availability and equipment inventory levels. Expect production to increase 10% by 2025.      PSR

Carol Turner is Senior Analyst, Global Operations, for Power Systems Research

North American Rollers 2021 Production: 6,245 Units

DATAPOINT

6,245 units is the estimate by Power Systems Research of the number of rollers to be produced in North America (U.S., Canada and Mexico)  during 2021.

This information comes from industry interviews and from two proprietary databases maintained by Power Systems Research: EnginLink™ , which provides information on engines, and OE Link™, a database of equipment manufacturers.

Market Share:  With 48.5% of total units produced, U.S. based Wacker Neuson leads in production of Rollers in North America.  In second position is Caterpillar’s combined plant totals of 21%; third, is Volvo Construction with 15.5%. 

Export: Collectively, up to 50% worldwide.

Trends: In 2020, production of Rollers in North America dropped 31.5%, but production is expected to rebound 16% in 2021 over 2020.  The decline in 2020 is solely based on COVID-19 related factors that impacted the global supply chain.  There are material shortages (parts/supplies), shipping issues (moving goods is slow paced), material prices increased and workforce matters (due to company shutdowns or can’t find workers).

With supply chain problems gradually being resolved, the 2021 increase is also attributed to the launching and demand for new, more versatile products, along with the stabilization of the overall economy, mostly regarding the housing/construction markets.  The demand for rental machinery is also on the rise.  

Many new models are boasting increased fuel efficiency that are desirable to operate.  Tandem drum vibratory rollers account for nearly half of all compactors produced and sold each year that range from 5-8 metric tons.  Expect the production of rollers in NA to increase an additional 10% by 2025.   PSR

Carol Turner, is Senior Analyst, Global Operations, for Power Systems Research