Published in Automotive Business, August, 26, 2020
1. INTRODUCTION
The use of diesel in Commercial Vehicles and its alternatives has been studied and discussed globally over the past two decades. We have updated future trends annually based on the new platforms in our data and new models in development allowing us a 10-year horizon. In August 2019 we published an article on the subject for Automotive Business Brazil, which is now updating.
Carlos Briganti
In the 2019 article we said that fossil diesel propulsion for commercial vehicles would be exposed to several alternatives and therefore the 20s decade would be a decade of significant changes, justifying yearly monitoring of the subject.
This whole range of studies was then impacted by COVID-19, a new event at the beginning of this decade that is another factor of change in this complex subject.
In November, Volkswagen’s TRATON group and Navistar announced a merger agreement in which TRATON will acquire all outstanding shares of Navistar. Previously, TRATON held 16.7% of Navistar’s common shares. The deal is valued at $3.7 billion and is expected to be finalized in mid-2021.
Navistar has been in collaboration with TRATON’s brand MAN for a number of years, primarily with regard to engine development. PSR believes additional engine offerings will be one of the primary goals to improve profitability and long-term market share improvement within the class 8 truck segment.
The U.S. Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) recently released economic data from the Outdoor Recreation Satellite Account for the year 2022, showing the largest economic impact in its history and outdoor recreation’s economic impact on the U.S. economy.
These new figures reveal that outdoor recreation generates $1.1 trillion in economic output (2.2% of GDP), 4.98 million jobs and comprises 3.2% of U.S. employees.
From 2021 to 2022 the GDP contribution from outdoor recreation increased by 4.8% and employment increased by 7.4%, according to the report.
Outdoor recreation remains a significant sector of the U.S. economy. A wide range of activities—from hiking, boating, and hunting to golf and tennis—result in outdoor recreation jobs in a wide variety of industries
FAW Jiefang and CATL have set up a joint venture company, Jiefang (Jilin) New Energy Technology Co., Ltd., to do business in the new energy segment. The company is wholly-owned by Jiefang shidai New Energy Technology Co., Ltd., which is a joint venture between FAW and CATL with each party holding 50% of the JV’s shares.
The JV was established to sell new energy vehicles, batteries, battery parts, and electric vehicle charging equipment charging stations; Information system integration services; and Intelligent control system integration. It also will manufacture power transmission and distribution and control equipment.
In August 2022, CATL reached a strategic cooperation agreement with FAW Jiefang, proposing to invest 500 million yuan to establish a subsidiary for cooperation. CATL’s battery business mainly focuses on the passenger car market, and the cooperation between the two sides marks the beginning of CATL’s in-depth launch into the new energy commercial vehicle market.
Fabio Ferraresi Dir. Business Development South America
Fabio Ferraresi holds a Bachelor degree in Mechanical Engineering from the University of São Paulo, and he received his MBA in Business Management from Fundação Getúlio Vargas. He also holds CMQ-OE and CQE certifications from American Society for Quality. He has experience in automotive business in South America and Asia. He has worked for Eaton Corporation for 12 years in Brazil and China in positions such as supplier development manager, supply chain manager, factory manager and quality manager. Fabio also serves as business development director of Grupo Engenho, a consulting company with activities in business management and Operational excellence. Fabio joined the Power Systems Research team in 2014.
Today, Fabio Fabio Ferraresi, Director of Business Development in South America, discusses Brazil MH vehicle production and trends in MHV propulsion and powertrains.
Transcript
Welcome to the PSR PowerTALK podcast produced by Power Systems Research.
00:06 Joe Delmont
From Power Systems Research I’m Joe Delmont, editor of PSR PowerTALK. Today we’ll talk with Fabio Ferraresi about transportation trends in Brazil, especially as they apply to medium and heavy vehicles. We’ll discuss 2021 Brazil production forecasts, and we’ll also look at trends in propulsion and powertrains for medium and heavy vehicles.
Natasa Mulahalilovic is PSR MarineLink Product Manager
Emiliano Marzoli is Senior Business Development Manager – Europe
Dalibor Sablic is Senior Business Development Manager – Europe
SUMMARY: The general mood at Boot 2020 this year was very positive. Most builders said they had a very successful nautical 2018/2019 year, and most said they are looking forward to a good year in 2020. The show drew 240,000 visitors who had an opportunity to meet 1,900 exhibitors from 71 countries.
The Sailing boats segment is coming back on track, motorboats of all sizes are doing well, the super yachts segment remains strong, and inflatable boats and tenders have gained in popularity. The optimistic view for 2020 is based on good year-end results, continuous investments in new technologies, materials, equipment, design and exciting new boat concepts.
Natasa Mulahalilovic
Modern designs, completely new looks, use of light and solid material, work on multi-functionality and openness of the boats is visible everywhere and in all segments. Boats are open more than ever, providing more space and light, and bringing riders closer to the water.
The environmental awareness is growing, and a new generation of boaters is looking for cleaner solutions, not just comfort. That’s why the sailing segment is gaining ground, electric boats are appealing to the general curiosity, and small and medium motorboats are more attractive than in last 10 years when the trend was towards bigger motor yachts and super yachts.
17 Halls of Boats, Boats and More Boats
Duesseldorf, Germany–The Power Systems Research (PSR) team spent several days exploring the 17 halls at this year’s Boot 2020 Show, reviewing products and talking with pleasure boat builders, traders and other industry professionals about the latest achievements, innovations and trends.
The 51st edition of Boot 2020, Europe’s largest boat show, wrapped up January 26, after drawing attendance of 240,000 for the nine-day event. People came mainly from Europe, but they came from all over the world, as well.
Toyota has launched the Corolla Altis, India’s first flex-fuel engine. This car will be able to run on petrol or ethanol as well as electric power. It is part of a pilot project developing Flexi-Fuel Strong Hybrid Electric Vehicles in India.
Because of the great diversity in India’s consumer population, especially its per-capita income disparity, and multiple applications of vehicles, India might not use one technology but might use a combination of technologies involving various fuel types.
The Indian market can’t simply shift from petrol/ diesel engines to EVs over the next few years. Hence, many OEMs are working on CNG/ hydrogen/ hybrid vehicles. Toyota has launched this new vehicle for the Indian market as part of these efforts.
VW’s US Innovation Hub just announced four breakthroughs in electric mobility and sustainable transport. First, the team used artificial intelligence on University of Tennessee’s high-performance computer cluster to develop a modular structure in the shape of tiny pyramids; the structure can be 3D-printed from liquid resins and can hold 30K times its own 0.15 lb weight (68g), so this frame would be up to 60% lighter than the steel frame.
Second, they have developed a method of using paper as a recyclable alternative to plastic parts and foils for EV interiors.
The pandemic bike boom boosted e-bike sales 145% from 2019 to 2020, more than double the rate of classic bikes, according to the market research firm NPD Group.
Research by Power Systems Research estimates the global e-bike market size at US$ 23.2B in 2022 and expects the market to reach US$ 78B by 2030, exhibiting a CAGR of 10.5%.
E-bikes are bicycles equipped with electrical motors for transforming electrical energy into mechanical energy to assist pedaling. They use rechargeable batteries that require minimum maintenance and provide power to the motor.
After continued positive market trends which started towards the end of 2020, as well as good progress in their initiatives for integration and sustainability, the Finnish quarrying and mining equipment group Metso Outote grew their order intake in the second quarter by 43%. Supported further by a robust recovery fuelled by infrastructure investments in Europe and the US, and the quarterly orders were higher than in the first quarter.
They believe that many of these new order intakes are a direct result from their “Positive planet portfolio”. This new initiative has been designed help customers improve the sustainability and productivity of their operations. This initiative performed even better than expected, they have already estimated a value of €105m end of June, out of the predicted €120m for 2021. This highlights the ecological trend that we are seeing across most industries.
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