North American Economy Should Be Strong in 2022 But Grow at Slower Pace

Yosyf Sheremeta
Yosyf Sheremeta

SUMMARY.  2021 was a year of big hopes for economic recovery and pandemic management, and, overall, the economic rebound was strong.  Looking at the state of the economy in general, and the key economic indicators such as GDP, interest rates, employment levels, etc., the North America market finished the year on a very high note. At the same time, development of new pandemic variants as well as ongoing issues with supply chains have led to manufacturing issues.

The second half of 2021 brought steady economic activities and strong economic recovery.  Despite this strong performance, many existing and new challenges were seen.  Problems from pandemic-related supply chain disruptions, logistics backlogs, and semiconductor shortages to new virus variations and labor market issues have contributed to slower growth in Q4 2021 than during the first half of last year. 

Let’s break it down.  The “Great Resignation” means companies must make themselves more attractive to new hires, and it provides those workers who remain more leverage to change corporate cultures from the inside.

With help of government support and targeted fiscal policies, the US economy showed a strong comeback in 2021.  Furthermore, the growth trajectory is well positioned to continue to expand into the next few years, however, at much slower pace, than in 2021. 

At the same time, there are many reasons for us to be optimistic about this trend.  Our positive outlook is based on the reviews of key economic indicators, including GDP, unemployment, and inflation.  In our previous forecasts, we discussed recovery trends for the post-pandemic period, and called for a return of demand for most markets in 2021.   Last year, we witnessed a strong level of activities and an economic  rebound for

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Fabio discusses YTD Ag Equipment Outlook 2021

Fabio Ferraresi directs PSR new business development efforts in South America. Today, he discusses the outlook for Ag Equipment Production in Brazil. Production in the first quarter of 2021 was the best since 2013 and he sees annual growth of about 25% moving forward.

Transcript

Welcome to the PSR PowerTALK podcast, produced by Power Systems Research.

00:06 Joe Delmont:

From Power Systems Research I’m Joe Delmont, editor of PSR PowerTALK. Today we’re talking with Fabio Ferraresi about the outlook for ag equipment production in Brazil.

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Edge Computing: Microgrids

In part 3 of “Living on the Edge” John Krzesicki examines microgrids with his guest Thomas Bourgeois, Deputy Director of the Pace Energy and Climate Center.

Transcript

Welcome to the PSR PowerTALK podcast produced by Power Systems Research.

00:06 John Krzesicki

Hello, my name is John Krzesicki. Today it’s my pleasure to host the Power Systems “Living on the Edge” series. The show we have conversation with industry experts on their insight into the future of intelligent technology.

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Q2 2018 Shows Further Evidence of Paradigm Shifts Following 2017 Hurricanes

SUMMARY: Gen-set sales climbed 5% over Q1 2018 levels in anticipation of the camping season and end of fiscal year for many government and industrial consumers. While fewer dealers commented on specific-storm related residential demand this quarter, the 5% growth this quarter does seem to indicate that last year’s hurricanes may have raised the gen-set market up to a new normal, especially when compared to the 1.8% growth reported in Q2 of 2017.

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Coronavirus Has Major Impact on Global Production of Off-Highway Equipment and Medium & Heavy-Duty Vehicles

Download Your PDF Copy of the Presentation

ST. PAUL, MN–A team of international analysts from Power Systems Research (PSR) analyzed the impact of COVID-19 on the global production of Off-Highway Equipment and MH-Duty Vehicles in several regions today.

The team examined the impact of the coronavirus in North America, Europe, Asia, India, and South America for the remainder of 2020 and into Q1 2021.  Download your copy of the presentation here.

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The Future of Commercial Vehicles. Perspectives for Brazil

Published in Automotive Business, August, 26, 2020

1. INTRODUCTION

The use of diesel in Commercial Vehicles and its alternatives has been studied and discussed globally over the past two decades. We have updated future trends annually based on the new platforms in our data and new models in development allowing us a 10-year horizon. In August 2019 we published an article on the subject for Automotive Business Brazil, which is now updating.

Carlos Briganti
Carlos Briganti

In the 2019 article we said that fossil diesel propulsion for commercial vehicles would be exposed to several alternatives and therefore the 20s decade would be a decade of significant changes, justifying yearly monitoring of the subject.

This whole range of studies was then impacted by COVID-19, a new event at the beginning of this decade that is another factor of change in this complex subject.

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Korean Battery Companies Increase Sales Significantly

FAR EAST: SOUTH KOREA REPORT

The consolidated financial results for the April-June period of the three major Korean battery companies show significant sales growth. LG Energy Solution’s sales grew 73% y/y and operating profit was 2.4x y/y. SK On’s sales grew 2.9x y/y due to the expansion of EV production. Samsung SDI’s sales grew 23% y/y.

LG Energy, the world’s second largest automotive battery maker, posted a 73% y/y increase in sales to KRW 8.774 trillion (approximately $6.6 billion) and a 2.4x y/y increase in operating profit to KRW 461 billion (approximately $340 million), while its joint production with GM of the U.S., which will begin operations in 2022, also contributed to the continued growth in sales and profit.

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We Expect 2020 NA Overall OEM Production To Be Flat

This article initially appeared in the February 2020 issue of PowerTALK News.

SUMMARY.  The North American economy remained stable in 2019 and pure economic conditions as well as fundamentals in the region were favorable. Most industries performed very well, and the short-term outlook remains stable to flat for most market segments. However, we see many new developments that could suggest a shift in the trend.

Yosyf Sheremeta
Yosyf Sheremeta

Consumer confidence declined slightly in December, following a moderate increase in November.  The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index stood at 126.5 in December, 1.4 points higher than in September 2019. 

Per Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board: “While consumers’ assessment of current conditions improved, their expectations declined, driven primarily by a softening in their short-term outlook regarding jobs and financial prospects. While the economy hasn’t shown signs of further weakening, there is little to suggest that growth, and in particular consumer spending, will gain momentum in early 2020.”

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Edge Computing in Smart Cities and Communities

In part 2 of his “Living on the Edge” series, John Krzesicki continues his discussion about edge computing with Carrie Goetz. In this podcast they delve deeper into smart cities/communities.

Transcript

Welcome to the PSR PowerTALK podcast produced by Power Systems Research.

00:05 John Krzesicki

My name is John Krzesicki.

Today it’s my pleasure to host this Power Systems’ “Living on the Edge” series smart city discussion. The show where we have conversations with industry experts on their insights into the mobility’s future and impact on cities and industries.

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