MHV Production Growth Expected in 2022-2023

Chris Fisher
Chris Fisher

Summary: Global demand for Medium and Heavy Commercial Vehicles (MHV) rebounded in 2021 but overall growth in the segment was flat.  Going forward, we expect the growth to accelerate in 2022 and 2023.   The exceptions to this rebound trend are in China and India, which continue to decline and sharply drive overall global production numbers into negative territory. 

We expect global production volumes in 2022 to gain 3.7% vs 2021, with a positive trend in all regions, except for China, where we expect production volumes to be down -3.6% in 2022 vs 2021.  China experienced a surge in demand during 2020 due to the change in emissions regulations, so 2021 was down significantly, about 20%. 

North America: While supply chain disruptions continue to negatively impact the commercial vehicle market, medium and heavy commercial vehicle production is expected to finish 2021 15.8% higher than 2020.  The forecasted production growth rate is expected to continue to show improvement through 2023 as supply chain disruptions ease and truck capacity in the market begins to align with demand.  The disruption in the supply chain and on-going issues with Covid will continue to impact the market this year.

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Recharging Slows Electrification of HD Trucks

CHINA REPORT
Jack Hao
Jack Hao

In 2022, the penetration rate of new energy units in the commercial vehicle market exceeded 10%, and the penetration rate of heavy-duty trucks was close to 5%. The new energy subsidy policy was scheduled to be withdrawn at the end of 2023, but data for the January to October period is basically the same as the previous year. The share of new energy units for the commercial vehicle segment is far lower than the market share of 30.4% for new energy passenger vehicles.

With the accelerated adjustment of China’s transportation structure, it is expected that by 2025, the national railway and water freight volume will increase by 10% and 12%, respectively, compared to 2020, while the road freight volume will relatively decrease. In this context, bulk and ultra long-distance road transportation will gradually exit the market, and the advantages of short and point-to-point road trunk transportation with radii of around 500 kilometers and 300 kilometers will be further highlighted.

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Strong E-Bike Market Growth Seen

The pandemic bike boom boosted e-bike sales 145% from 2019 to 2020, more than double the rate of classic bikes, according to the market research firm NPD Group.

Research by Power Systems Research estimates the global e-bike market size at US$ 23.2B in 2022 and expects the market to reach US$ 78B by 2030, exhibiting a CAGR of 10.5%.

E-bikes are bicycles equipped with electrical motors for transforming electrical energy into mechanical energy to assist pedaling. They use rechargeable batteries that require minimum maintenance and provide power to the motor.

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Japan Sees Hydrogen as Main Fuel by 2030

Akihiro Komuro
Akihiro Komuro

The government of Japan has set a target of 10 million tons of hydrogen to be used in Japan by 2030, enough to operate more than 30 nuclear power plants. This would be more than 10% of the total electricity capacity in Japan.

It will also hasten the practical application of hydrogen power generation and accelerate the spread of FCVs. The government will provide support through a newly established 2 trillion Yen fund and tax incentives for capital investment.

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Pandemic Disruptions Hinder Auto Battery Adoption

My other article in this month’s issue of PowerTALK News describes how home battery systems, even though they are not themselves viable products for most consumers, still benefit from a virtuous cycle of product improvement and investment because of the relative success of battery-powered vehicles and other battery-powered products.

Tyler Wiegert
Tyler Wiegert

But the COVID-19 pandemic has not missed those drivers. Venture Beat magazine reports that investors are largely avoiding lithium this year, preferring to safeguard cash until the economy starts to improve. The delay in funding could have several knock-on effects.

One is consolidation in the industry. Ganfeng Lithium is picking up a lithium project from Lithium Americas, a smaller operation. Fewer, larger players in the market later on might have price consequences for lithium adoption after the economy improves and demand for those goods increases.

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COVID-19 Cuts Results at Harley-Davidson, Polaris

Harley-Davidson Q1 2020 Sales Plunge 15.5%

Harley-Davidson said US sales were up 6.6% in the quarter before the pandemic ground the economy to a halt in mid-March. But sales wound up plunging 15.5% in America compared to a year ago and 20.7% internationally. Overall revenue slipped 8% from last year’s first quarter.

For the quarter, Harley-Davidson posted earnings of $69.7 million compared with $127.9 million in the same period a year ago.

Michael Aistrup
Michael Aistrup

Harley-Davidson’s share in the U.S. heavyweight motorcycle market share was down 2.2 percentage points, to 48.9% and the company’s share of the heavyweight motorcycle market in Europe was 7.6% in the first quarter.

In response to the COVID-19 crisis, Harley has reduced planned capital spending, frozen hiring, temporarily reduced salaries, eliminated merit increases for employees in 2020 and changed the timing of new product launches in order to preserve $250 million in 2020.

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TADA Raises US$5 Million To Enter EV Tuk Market

Singapore-based MVLLabs, the operator of car dispatch service TADA, has raised US$5 million. MVLLabs is a company that operates a mobility ecosystem based on the blockchain protocol. TADA, a no-fee car dispatch platform built on MVL’s blockchain, launched in Singapore in 2018.

In 2020 they are also expanding into Cambodia and Vietnam. MVLLabs plans to use the funds raised to facilitate continuous expansion and further develop the mobility ecosystem.

According to them, mobility data such as transactions, journeys, accidents and vehicle maintenance are recorded and connected within a single MVL ecosystem. Users can interact with the MVL ecosystem on the blockchain through connected services such as TADA and other upcoming services. Operating in Singapore, Cambodia and Vietnam, TADA has over 50,000 drivers and more than 500,000 users.

Source: BRIDGE (The original article was partially revised by the author.)

PSR Analysis: Unicorn companies in Southeast Asia have been raising large amounts of capital. Tech companies are solid. They are cleverly combining sophisticated business strategies with promotion to attract investors.

There has been a noticeable trend in the past for foreign companies with huge capital to invest in Southeast Asia, and the Southeast Asian governments have also been eager to attract factories in the region in anticipation of this. But now, in addition to that trend, homegrown companies are making their presence felt by challenging the local market. As COVID-19 is bringing globalization to a standstill, the trend of local companies growing as a local economic base will accelerate further.

Three-wheeled taxis with various names such as Tuk, Bajaj, Tricycle, etc. can be found in many cities in Southeast Asia. For example, there are about 22,000 registered tricycle taxis in Thailand. In the Philippines, there are an estimated 2.5 to 3 million tricycle taxis. However, air pollution due to exhaust emissions and noise pollution due to engine noise are two of the main problems, and there are calls for the adoption of EVs as a solution to these problems.

Several companies have carried out test deliveries of EV Tuk Tuks, but there have been a number of breakdowns in the past because of exposure to heavy rain during the rainy season. It will be interesting to see what strategies companies with no previous experience in vehicle development will adopt to enter this field, where durability is strongly demanded. PSR

Akihiro Komuro is Research Analyst, Far East and Southeast Asia, for Power Systems Research

Case New Holland(CNH) To Halt Sales of Construction Machinery

CHINA REPORT
Jack Hao
Jack Hao

CNH Industrial Group says it is stopping the sales of construction machinery and equipment in the Chinese market after Dec. 31, 2022. This is another significant development by foreign brands in the Chinese market.

John Deere withdrew from the Chinese market after the original industrial structure was changed by the merger of the Chinese plant of Kobelco Construction Machinery Co., Ltd. At the same time, Hitachi Construction Machinery also made changes to Hitachi Construction Machinery (Shanghai) Co., Ltd., which is responsible for sales and services in China, and set up a new sales and service company, “Hitachi Construction Machinery Sales (China) Co., Ltd.”, which began operating Nov. 1, 2022.

On Dec. 29, 2020, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment announced that from Dec. 1, 2022, all off-road mobile machines below 560kw (including 560kw) produced, imported and sold and their diesel engines installed shall meet the requirements of the Chinese IV emission standard. The implementation time of Chinese IV emission of off-road mobile machinery above 560kw and its installed diesel engines has not been announced.

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Unprecedented Times Call for Extraordinary Measures

Download our special report CORONAVIRUS, Impact on the global production for engines and powered equipment. Available April 15, 2020.

Joe Zirnhelt
Joe Zirnhelt

Over the first quarter of 2020 the concern over the coronavirus has grown each week.  Since first hearing the news out of China and the virus’ spread to South Korea, we have been able to observe the effects on supply chains and production.  

Time is of the essence

Although news and concern increased since that time, the week of March 10 and the classification of the coronavirus as a pandemic by the World Health Organization dramatically shifted many measures into action across the globe.

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