CHINA REPORT
In 2022, the penetration rate of new energy units in the commercial vehicle market exceeded 10%, and the penetration rate of heavy-duty trucks was close to 5%. The new energy subsidy policy was scheduled to be withdrawn at the end of 2023, but data for the January to October period is basically the same as the previous year. The share of new energy units for the commercial vehicle segment is far lower than the market share of 30.4% for new energy passenger vehicles.
With the accelerated adjustment of China’s transportation structure, it is expected that by 2025, the national railway and water freight volume will increase by 10% and 12%, respectively, compared to 2020, while the road freight volume will relatively decrease. In this context, bulk and ultra long-distance road transportation will gradually exit the market, and the advantages of short and point-to-point road trunk transportation with radii of around 500 kilometers and 300 kilometers will be further highlighted.
The main factors currently promoting the new energy transformation of trunk logistics are the economic advantage of oil and electricity, as well as the improvement of energy replenishment facilities. Research has shown that when the economic gap between oil and electricity exceeds 20%, and the range of a single vehicle exceeds 300 kilometers, the advantages of new energy heavy-duty trucks are more prominent.
At present, there are no more than 400 replacement stations for heavy-duty trucks nationwide, distributed in a dotted pattern. It is expected that over 1000 buildings will be built by 2025, with some gradually developing on a point basis and covering some trunk line scenarios, which will promote the penetration rate of new energy in trunk logistics heavy trucks.
Source: Sohu Read The Article
PSR Analysis. By 2030, it is expected that pure electric heavy-duty trucks will account for 70% of new energy heavy-duty trucks, in a market of an estimated 350,000 vehicles. Among them, battery swapping heavy-duty trucks will account for 70% -80% of pure electric heavy-duty trucks. China aims to achieve a sales volume of 100,000 fuel cell vehicles and 50,000 zero carbon internal combustion engine hybrid heavy-duty trucks by 2030.
The Development Plan for China’s New Energy Vehicle Industry (2021-2035) clearly states that starting from 2021, the proportion of new energy vehicles in the public areas of national ecological civilization pilot zones and key areas for air pollution prevention and control, such as newly added or updated buses, taxis, logistics and distribution vehicles, shall not be less than 80%.
The construction cost of battery swapping stations is relatively high, and battery swapping standards are not unified. Each heavy-duty truck battery swapping station can only swap batteries for specific heavy-duty truck models and cannot fully achieve battery swapping between different vehicle manufacturers.
Due to this limitation, scaling up is difficult to achieve, as it is not only difficult to ensure stable profitability, but it also hinders the rapid growth of electric trucks as most of the exchange stations operate at a loss. PSR
Jack Hao is Senior Research Manager – China for Power Systems Research
