Vertical Integration Is Key for Competitive Battery Vehicles

R&D World magazine recently examined the global market for lithium-ion batteries and concluded that there could very well be a shortage in the next decade. They projected that recent investments will ensure supply keeps ahead of demand for at least the next two years, but that the demand for lithium in 2030 will be 2.3x higher than the global output in 2019, and investments may not be happening at the pace needed to meet it.

Tyler Wiegert
Tyler Wiegert

The main bottleneck is that it takes 5-10 years to bring a new lithium or cobalt mine online, but their low prices right now remove some of the incentive to make those investments.

In the absence or shortage of those investments, control of current resources will play a critical role in the production costs of lithium-powered equipment, including on-highway vehicles. In this area, as in many others, Tesla appears to be a leader. The electric car maker has made a number of moves recently to pursue vertical integration, including, most recently, signing a supply deal with Hanwha for battery production equipment. But they are also making moves to secure ownership of the raw materials needed for battery production.

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VinFast Ends Sales of Two Gasoline Vehicles

VIETNAM REPORT
Akihiro Komuro
Akihiro Komuro

VinFast, an automotive subsidiary of Vingroup, the largest conglomerate in Vietnam, announced that it ended orders for two types of gasoline-powered vehicles in early July. The models covered are SUVs and sedans, and the company now will only sell the Fadil, a compact gasoline-powered vehicle. The company has announced its plan to withdraw from the production of gasoline-powered vehicles by the end of this year and is hastening its shift to EV production.

VinFast states that the reason for the suspension of orders for the two models is that “procurement of parts has become difficult and the number of units delivered to customers was not as large as expected.” The company did not mention the timing of the suspension of orders for Fadil. The company began selling EVs in Vietnam in December 2021.

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Russian Government To Pay 60% of Expenses for Switching Vehicles to NG

The Russian government subsidies now will cover 60% of individuals’ and small business’ expenses for switching vehicles from gasoline to NG fuel. That’s up from 30%.

Maxim Sakov
Maxim Sakov

The minister of Power Industry has offered to increase subsidies for switching vehicles belonging to individuals and small business two times – from 30% to 60%. Another 30% will be paid by Gazprom at the expenses of its marketing program. Therefore, vehicle owners should pay only 10% of the cost to switch.

The government will assign US$ 0.7 billion (50 billion Rubles) for development of the NG fuel industry during the period 2020-2024. This includes an annual assignment of 3.5 billion rubles for gas fuel stations and 0.7 billion rubles for fleet modification.

There are 484 gas stations in Russia (May 2020), 329 of them belong to Gazprom. In 2019, the fuel sales on gas stations increased 30%.     Read The Article

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DATAPOINT: 2021 Tactical Military Vehicles

Today Joe Delmont presents the 2021 forecast for Tactical Military Equipment production in North America. This forecast has been developed by Carol Turner, Senior Analyst of Global Operations, at Power Systems Research. Carol provides annual production forecasts for important equipment applications.

Transcript

Welcome to the PSR PowerTALK podcast produced by Power Systems Research.

00:06

From Power Systems Research I’m Joe Delmont, editor of PSR PowerTALK.

Today we’ll discuss a datapoint covering 2021 North American production of tactical military equipment.

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Protests Affect Columbia Vehicles Market

Sales of vehicles in Colombia were affected by protests and roadblocks in May. Because of the protest, dealers were closed and vehicles are blocked at the ports of Cartagena and Barranquilla. Even with the reduction from April to May, when 14,700 units were sold, below the 18,000 in April, the YTD result in 2021 is 50.2% better than 2020.

Source: AutoData     Read The Article

PSR Analysis: The recovery of the Colombia economy, seen in light of the vehicle market, is faster than expected, even with the continued health crisis due to the pandemic and the social and politic problems. For the full year, there is a significant amount of uncertainty with a bias for increase in the forecasts.    PSR

Fabio Ferraresi is Director-Business Development, South America, for Power Systems Research

Hino Motors’ Engine Fraud Covers 560,000 vehicles

FAR EAST: JAPAN REPORT
Akihiro Komuro
Akihiro Komuro

Hino Motors has announced that the falsification of diesel engine emission values, which was previously announced in March, had been taking place since at least 2003 or earlier. The company had previously stated that the fraud began in the fall of 2016. In 2016, the company also revealed that it had falsely reported to the MLIT (Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport, and Tourism) in response to its request for a fact-finding survey on exhaust gas and fuel efficiency tests.

Source: The Nikkei

PSR Analysis: Although I do not wish to make such negativity a theme, I cannot overlook this issue. The impact on the industry of the fraud at Hino, which has the top share of the medium- and heavy-duty truck sector in Japan, is significant. Isuzu has suspended shipments of four bus models that use Hino engines. Not limited to the automotive field, Tadano cranes, Kobelco hydraulic excavators, Hitachi Construction Machinery wheel loaders, and Kato rough terrain cranes have also been forced to suspend shipments after the problem came to light.

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Honda To Discontinue Two-Wheeled Gasoline Vehicles

FAR EAST: JAPAN REPORT

On Sept. 13, 2022, Honda announced it will eliminate gasoline-powered motorcycles by the mid-2040s. All new vehicles will be EV motorcycles; 3.5 million, or 15% of global sales, are to be EV motorcycles by 2030. Honda has already declared that all its four-wheeled vehicles will be EVs by 2040, but this is the first time the company has laid out a concrete strategy for decarbonization on two wheels.

From now on, Honda will pursue electrification exclusively with EVs. First, it will launch at least 10 EV motorcycle models by 2025. Since investment in new vehicle development and production facilities will be a heavy burden, Honda will use a common platform for batteries, motors, and other components for three large motorcycle models to be launched in Japan, the United States, and Europe between 2024 and 2025.

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Brazilian Production and Sales of Commercial Vehicles Won’t Recover Until 2021

Power Systems Research analyzes markets of trucks, buses, agricultural and construction machines

Brazil deaths caused by coronavirus increased sharply in April and May 2020.

Slump Caused by COVID-19 Will Last into 2021

The overall slump in production and sales of heavy commercial vehicles (trucks and buses) as well as for agricultural and construction machines should last throughout this year; these segments won’t recover until 2021.  PSR

Automotive Business – April 2020 – English version

Bus Fleets Convert To Zero Emission Vehicles

During the past few years, many cities and states have committed to full adoption of their transit bus fleets to zero-emission vehicles.  While the implementation dates vary, most are aiming to have the transition completed by 2040. 

Chris Fisher
Chris Fisher

Since transit buses typically have pre-defined routs and access to recharging infrastructure, they are good candidates for adoption.  It also helps that this segment is not-for-profit, and a short-term payback is not required.  The significant barriers to adoption appear to have been overcome. 

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Increased Utilization Fees for Vehicles Planned

Russian authorities plan to increase vehicle utilization fees in 2021, according to automotive sources.

Utilization fees could be increased by as much as 25-30% for all types of vehicles, including special machinery, according to industry sources. This measure would be accompanied by a comparable devaluation of the national currency, which would reduce trade barriers.

Utilization fees were implemented in 2012. It was always considered as a compensation of Custom’s tax reduce after Russia’s entry into WTO. It was set in Russian Rubles. Initially, the fees were paid by the importers only. However, they later were expanded to everybody, but then local OEMs started receiving industrial subsidies, compensating for this fee.

Read The Article

PSR Analysis: With reduced tax collection and increased State expenses in 2020, Russian authorities are seeking sources to compensate for income losses. Increasing utilization fees is one way to do this.    PSR

Maxim Sakov is Market Consultant – Russia Operations for Power Systems Research