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The agricultural and construction equipment sectors in Brazil are poised for significant growth in coming years, according to data compiled by Anfavea (National Association of Automotive Vehicle Manufacturers) in conjunction with the IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics).
A comprehensive survey identified 5.1 million agricultural establishments nationwide, of which 14.5% possessed tractors and 2.4% had harvesters, indicating substantial potential for expansion provided farmers have access to both public and private financing avenues for equipment acquisition.
COVID-19 continues to batter production of off-highway equipment as we continue to move through 2020. The effects of the virus on Agricultural and Construction equipment production in North America were analyzed in a June 17 webinar presented by the Heavy Duty Manufacturers Association (HDMA) and Power Systems Research (PSR). The webinar updated information presented in PSR’s webinar in April.
Jim Downey
The PSR webinar team was Jim Downey, PSR vice president-global data products , and Yosyf Sherementa, PhD, PSR director-product management and customer experience.
PSR projects AG to be down 9.4% and CN to be down 11.3% when comparing global production for this year (2020) to last year (2019).
China and India which have the largest volumes for ag machinery are the lower side for production percentage drops this year. China which is also the largest producer of construction equipment is not expecting a decline this year.
Yosyf Sheremeta
A slight recovery for Construction equipment is expected in 2021, but not until 2022 for Agricultural machinery. Ag sector recovery will ultimately depend on overall economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic.
The construction segment will not return to pre-virus production volumes for another few years, at best. We’re looking out to 2024 or possibly 2025 to get back to 1.48 million units.
We don’t see a V-shaped type scenario on the horizon in North America, but rather recovery will look like something between a “U” and an “L.” Somewhat of a swoosh shape or upward sloping L. Economic activity will slowly return to a sense of normalcy as the curve of new COVID-19 cases flattens.
Government support and intervention will be needed, and stimulus will provide an economic backstop. We expect modest growth in 2021. Pent-up demand and continued economic stimulus should also help with rebound.
Scania displayed CNG trucks and biogas production systems at its booth as a clear bet on this technology growing against Diesel in Brazil. At FENATRAN, the 22nd International Road Cargo Transport Trade Show, it sold its first regular production R 410 fueled by CNG to RN Logistics. The truck will operate at the São Paulo – Rio de Janeiro route.
In the past three months, the aggregate investments announced by automotive manufacturers in Brazil have reached a total of US$ 14.3 billion. The largest individual investment came from Stellantis, committing US$ 6 billion to the country between 2025 and 2030, marking a record sum among major vehicle manufacturers operating within the nation. A significant portion of this investment will be directed towards the development of flex-hybrid models.
This investment influx began in December, with Renault earmarking US$ 500 million for the production of a new SUV in Paraná, featuring engine variants that blend ethanol, gasoline, and electricity. In January this year, General Motors (GM) unveiled investments totaling US$ 1.4 billion aimed at product rejuvenation.
John Deere, has announced the acquisition of the condominium housing the company’s regional office in Indaiatuba (SP) and the Parts Distribution Center for South America (SA-PDC) in Campinas (SP), along with adjacent land for future expansion. The company also recently has acquired two plots in the Montenegro Industrial District (RS). These investments are part of the company’s ongoing commitment to development and expansion in the national market.
Mercedes says it has committed an investment of US$ 20 million for the launch of the eO500U, the first electric bus by the German OEM, the market leader in Brazil. Roberto Leoncini, Sales Director said that Mercedes opted for beginning the electrification of the MHV segment by the Bus products because it has higher impact on the population.
One of the key drivers for this launch is the new legislation for São Paulo city that aims to convert 50% of the fleet to electric by 2027. This means 7,000 electric buses will be sold by 2027. Sales forecast starts with 50 to 150 units by 2022.
PSR Analysis: With new legislation, OEMs rush for e-bus chassis launch to keep market share. Meanwhile, BYD celebrates the opportunity to grow with the lack of competitors, but it needs an improved in business model and strategic aspects to grow. PSR
Fabio Ferraresi is Director-Business Development, South America, for Power Systems Research
Construction Equipment Internal Sales in Brazil from January thru May grew 35% over the same period of 2019. The Brazilian Machinery Builders´ Association (ABIMAQ) expects 2020 sales to hit 20,000 machines, 15% more than in 2019.
PSR Analysis: The Construction segment was the less affected by the pandemic than some other segments. The interest reduction directed investment to real state, especially housing, and some measures, such as the new regulation for sanitation, recently approved by the parliament, will boost the Construction business in 2020 and more significantly in the coming years. PSR
The increase in global demand for clean energy is accelerating investments in the exploration of reserves of so-called critical or strategic minerals in Brazil. Over the next five years in Brazil, companies are expected to invest approximately US$ 8 billion in key strategic minerals. In copper the expectation is that the resources will reach US$ 4.47 billion, while nickel is in second place, with investments of US$ 2.3 Billion forecast.
PSR Analysis: A significant part of the investment will take place in Construction and Mining Equipment such as Hydraulic Excavators, Heavy Duty Wheel loaders and Graders that helps to sustain and increase the growth in the segment in Brazil. PSR
Fabio Ferraresi is Director-Business Development South America for Power Systems Research
The Brazil Government has published a law starting the Truck and Buses Scrappage Policy, aiming to renew fleets, increase productivity and efficiency, reduce emissions and improve safety. Depending on the effectiveness of the program, it may affect the MHV market. See complete article translated in our webpage and the original from Automotive Business.
PSR Analysis: The launch of the Renovar program is a positive sign on the path of improving safety, logistics efficiency and environmental impact for Brazil, with genuine and relevant objectives.
Because it is a voluntary program, operating in phases, with regulations and parameters yet to be defined, it is too early to project the effectiveness and impact on the vehicle market.
We believe that Brazil still needs broader legislation for a long-term program with a gradual and geographically differentiated process to restrict the movement of older, less safe trucks and buses with lower efficiency and higher emission levels. Fleet owners, autonomous carriers, OEMs and the entire production chain need predictability for long-term planning to prepare for and assure feasibility for a broad and scheduled fleet renewal. PSR
By Fabio Ferraresi, Director Business Development South America, for Power Systems Research
XCMG has signed a letter of intent to invest in Pouso Alegre, in the south of the state. XCMG also plans to invest in the creation of a research and development center in the state.
PSR Analysis: The letter of intent reaffirms the intention of XCMG to gain market share in Brazil, not only on the Off Highway Electric Truck segment, but also in Brazil’s On Highway Truck segment they entered in May 2023. XCMG, the world’s third largest CE producer, threatens CAT, Komatsu and Volvo in the OH Tuck segment and plans to become a player in the On Highway market. It should be noted that XCMG already has a 500,000 square meter plant in Pouso Alegre and probably has enough space to make the investment only for equipment and tools for assembly. PSR
Fabio Ferraresi is Director, Business Development South America, for Power Systems Research
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