North American Economy Should Be Strong in 2022 But Grow at Slower Pace

Yosyf Sheremeta
Yosyf Sheremeta

SUMMARY.  2021 was a year of big hopes for economic recovery and pandemic management, and, overall, the economic rebound was strong.  Looking at the state of the economy in general, and the key economic indicators such as GDP, interest rates, employment levels, etc., the North America market finished the year on a very high note. At the same time, development of new pandemic variants as well as ongoing issues with supply chains have led to manufacturing issues.

The second half of 2021 brought steady economic activities and strong economic recovery.  Despite this strong performance, many existing and new challenges were seen.  Problems from pandemic-related supply chain disruptions, logistics backlogs, and semiconductor shortages to new virus variations and labor market issues have contributed to slower growth in Q4 2021 than during the first half of last year. 

Let’s break it down.  The “Great Resignation” means companies must make themselves more attractive to new hires, and it provides those workers who remain more leverage to change corporate cultures from the inside.

With help of government support and targeted fiscal policies, the US economy showed a strong comeback in 2021.  Furthermore, the growth trajectory is well positioned to continue to expand into the next few years, however, at much slower pace, than in 2021. 

At the same time, there are many reasons for us to be optimistic about this trend.  Our positive outlook is based on the reviews of key economic indicators, including GDP, unemployment, and inflation.  In our previous forecasts, we discussed recovery trends for the post-pandemic period, and called for a return of demand for most markets in 2021.   Last year, we witnessed a strong level of activities and an economic  rebound for

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The Green Future Has Big Oil’s Backing

BP’s action might be a pivotal moment where the green revolution stops being something, we are all dragged into and starts being an opportunity for the most responsive and agile innovators to rebrand themselves and capture new markets.  

Tyler Wiegert
Tyler Wiegert

For many people, the moment when COVID-19 became real was when the NBA announced the cancellation of the rest of its season. I was sitting at the counter of the coffee shop in the lobby of my Las Vegas hotel at CON-EXPO. My colleagues and I had been talking for a couple days about the odds of catching the virus at the show, but we all had made the decision that we would be ok attending.

And then we saw that announcement. By the end of the day, we had all decided to go home as soon as possible, and the show had announced it was ending a day early. As a 26-year-old who just caught the tail end of the millennial generation, there haven’t been a lot of things in my memory where I can look back and say, in the moment, it felt like things were different now. I was too young to remember 9/11, and I wasn’t politically engaged enough to understand what the first African-American president meant historically. But this morning as I was catching up on the news and thinking about the subject of this article, I read that BP had made an announcement about a major environmental initiative, and as I read it, I had a feeling like at that coffee bar in Las Vegas.

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North American Economic Outlook – July 2021

Yosyf Sheremeta, PhD, Director of Product Management and Customer Experience, analyzes the North American economic outlook by industry segment.

Transcript

Welcome to the PowerTALK podcast produced by Power Systems Research.

00:06 Joe Delmont

From Power Systems Research, I’m Joe Delmont, editor of PSR PowerTALK.

Today, we’ll talk with Yosyf Sheremeta about the economic outlook for North America. Yosyf is Director of Product Management and Customer Experience for Power Systems Research.

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NA Economic Outlook: Slower H1 2021, But Much Stronger H2 2021 Expected

Yosyf Sheremeta
Yosyf Sheremeta

SUMMARY.  In our previous forecasts, we have discussed some hope for a V-shaped recovery, it did not materialize.  Our conclusion was based on several factors, such as the current economic cycle, overall strength of the economy, fiscal policy, political landscape in the US and globally, etc. After managing through the early stages of the pandemic in H1 2020, we saw good trends in H2 2020 and we had reasons to be optimistic for a quick recovery.

However, the recovery took a slight pause during the last few months.  Unemployment continued to increase, and regional lockdowns prevented the necessary demand for a significant year-end growth.  Now that the elections are over, we’ll have yet to see what the new administration will be able to achieve during the next two years.  Specifically, if the long awaited infrastructure reform can be passed.  However, fiscal policy with near zero interest rates, which government has promised to keep in place for the near future, will provide a good platform for the economic recovery and allow us to look optimistically into 2021-2022.

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Strong Post-pandemic Growth Expected into 2022-23 for North America

Yosyf Sheremeta
Yosyf Sheremeta

SUMMARY.  After the GDP declined 3.5% last year, the worst performance in almost 75 years, the US economy is set for a strong comeback.  There are many reasons to be optimistic about the economy for the next few years, including strong readings of macro-economic factors combined with the economic cycle reset backed by government initiatives and policies.

Our positive outlook is based on the reviews of key economic indicators, including GDP, unemployment, and inflation. 

During H1 2021, we witnessed a strong level of activities and a rebound for many industries.  As local governments eased lockdown restrictions, service-oriented industries gained traction and that translated to an overall increase of economic activities across many industries. 

We expect this level of rebound to continue and we now expect even stronger overall growth for 2021.  The US economy is on track to reach or even surpass the growth level of 1984 – the highest one since 1950s.  In the near term, consumer spending will help drive demand and support the strong growth trend.

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Near Term Recession Fears Recede in North America

SUMMARY.  The North American economy remained stable in 2019 and pure economic conditions as well as fundamentals in the region were favorable. Most industries performed very well, and the short-term outlook remains stable to flat for most market segments. However, we see many new developments that could suggest a shift in the trend.

Yosyf Sheremeta
Yosyf Sheremeta

Consumer confidence declined slightly in December, following a moderate increase in November.  The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index stood at 126.5 in December, 1.4 points higher than in September 2019. 

Per Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board: “While consumers’ assessment of current conditions improved, their expectations declined, driven primarily by a softening in their short-term outlook regarding jobs and financial prospects. While the economy hasn’t shown signs of further weakening, there is little to suggest that growth, and in particular consumer spending, will gain momentum in early 2020.”

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Innovation Was the Name of the Game at Agritechnica 2019

HANNOVER, Germany–For many years, Agritechnica has been growing and strengthening its role as the top European agricultural trade show. Despite the struggles that the industry is facing, with declining order books and a less than enthusiastic outlook for 2020, Agritechnica 2019 held here Nov. 11-16, 2019, reaffirmed its position as the most important ag tech event in Europe.  The show reported 2,820 exhibitors and 450,000 visitors, more than 130,000 of them from outside Germany.

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PowerTALK™ News, November 2020

If you use construction equipment, or if it’s important for you to know what’s happening in the construction segment in Europe or North and South America, you’ll want to participate in the free one-hour Construction Outlook Webinar produced by Power Systems Research and JCB Power Systems on Monday, Nov. 30, 2020, at 9:00 am CST. You’ll find the details in the November issue of PowerTALK News.

You’ll also find an analysis by Chris Fisher, senior commercial vehicle analyst at Power Systems Research, of the TRATON-Navistar merger. Other top items in this issue include:

  • NA: New Powerboat Sales Up
  • NA: MC Sales Climb
  • NA: B&S Exits Chapter 11
  • NA: Green Power Acquisition
  • NA: Zero MC Partners With Polaris
  • NA: Harley Launches E-Bike Brand
  • DataPoint: US Excavators
  • Europe: Marine Pleasure Market
  • Brazil: First E-Bus Operation
  • SA: Ford Transit Production
  • SA: Columbia Auto Sales Up
  • Japan: Makita Drops Products
  • Japan: Kawasaki Spins Off MC Business
  • Korea: Hyundai Plans Unmanned Plane
  • Thailand: EV Incentives Offered
  • India: Production Incentives
  • Russia: New Diesel Production
  • Russia: AutoVAZ Posts Sales Gains
  • Russia: KAMAZ Develops E-6 Engine

MWM Launches Family of NG Engines

MWM Engines and Power Gen, part of the Navistar group, has announced the launch of a new line of Acteon Engines powered by Natural Gas. The engine family has been developed in Brazil and features 4 cylinders and 6 cylinders with 4.8L and 7.2L displacement.

Source: Automotive Business     Read The Article

PSR Analysis: With this move, MWM meets Power Gen customers demand or NG powered Gen Sets and increases portfolio to attend OEMs aiming to launch NG powered vehicles and equipment without investment in Engines Development. As NG becomes a competitive and cleaner fuel alternative for Brazil, MWM put the bets on the right place to attend better the customers demand. PSR

Fabio Ferraresi is Director, Business Development-South America, for Power Systems Research

Forecast: Component Shortages and Supply Chain Disruptions

Chris Fisher
Chris Fisher

Since the latter part of last year, North American heavy commercial truck orders have been extremely strong as freight rates remain very high.  Both contract rates and spot rates are in record territory, primarily driven by consumer spending, a strong housing market and an improving manufacturing sector. 

The anticipation of the stimulus spending and increasing vaccination rates for Covid-19 are also driving optimism in the economy.  However, rising inflation could derail the improving economy.

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