Chris Fisher Truck News – February 2021

In this episode of the PSR PowerTALK Podcast Chris Fisher, Power Systems’ Senior Commercial Vehicle Analyst, discusses the Q4 2020 global production facts and related forecasts for medium and heavy trucks.

Transcript

Welcome to PowerTALK Truck podcast February 2021. Produced by Power Systems Research, the leading supplier of global production data and forecasts to the engine power products and Components industries. Here’s today’s host, Emiliano Marzoli, Manager of Power Systems Research, European Operations.

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Tesla Poised To Start the Engine…as Competitors Close In

Even though Tesla’s “Battery Day” was held Sept. 22, 2020, it didn’t produce the wildly exciting results that Elon Musk had promised would “blow your mind.”

Tyler Wiegert
Tyler Wiegert

During its event, Tesla unveiled plans to develop a “million mile” battery that could last an electric car’s entire lifetime on the road. It also outlined plans to dramatically reduce the cost of its battery cells and packs to $100 per kilowatt-hour, at which point experts believe electric cars will become comparable in price to combustion engine vehicles.

Bill Gates-backed QuantumScape, the first US battery company to go public in a decade, announced that it has overcome two major hurdles to create an all-metal lithium battery, which, if true, would allow electric vehicles to go up to 50% further on a single charge. Those hurdles were metallic lithium’s propensity to explode when it comes into contact with liquid and its needle structure that has historically punctured plastic separators between electrodes and caused shorts.

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Makita Engine Products To Be Discontinued in March 2022

Makita, a major power tool company, will discontinue the production of engine products such as engine mowers, engine chainsaws, and other engine products for garden equipment at the end of March 2022. The company will concentrate its resources on its mainstay rechargeable power tools and garden equipment, for which demand is expected to increase in the future. Annual sales of engine products account for less than 2% of the total.

Source: The Nikkei

PSR Analysis: I visited Makita’s booth at the Agri Week exhibition in October. Engine models were not on exhibit and had been removed from their catalog. HIKOKI had the same situation. I forecast that battery models will account for more than 95% of the total hand tool market in 2021.

This is a sign that battery models have evolved to a level comparable to engine models, even in the power-demanding products. The engine model has a better ability in terms of long hours of continuous operation, but this is not a reason to extend the life of the engine model. Long working hours can be done by simply replacing the batteries. The fact that these batteries can be shared across a wide range of products, from chainsaws to impact drivers, has prompted the company to seek user understanding by introducing sales methods that offer lower unit prices when multiple batteries are purchased at once.   PSR

Akihiro Komuro is a Research Analyst, Far East and Southeast Asia for Power Systems Research

Hino Motors’ Engine Fraud Covers 560,000 vehicles

FAR EAST: JAPAN REPORT
Akihiro Komuro
Akihiro Komuro

Hino Motors has announced that the falsification of diesel engine emission values, which was previously announced in March, had been taking place since at least 2003 or earlier. The company had previously stated that the fraud began in the fall of 2016. In 2016, the company also revealed that it had falsely reported to the MLIT (Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport, and Tourism) in response to its request for a fact-finding survey on exhaust gas and fuel efficiency tests.

Source: The Nikkei

PSR Analysis: Although I do not wish to make such negativity a theme, I cannot overlook this issue. The impact on the industry of the fraud at Hino, which has the top share of the medium- and heavy-duty truck sector in Japan, is significant. Isuzu has suspended shipments of four bus models that use Hino engines. Not limited to the automotive field, Tadano cranes, Kobelco hydraulic excavators, Hitachi Construction Machinery wheel loaders, and Kato rough terrain cranes have also been forced to suspend shipments after the problem came to light.

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KAMAZ Starts Development of Euro-6 Engine

Project “Tibet” is going on in R&D center of KAMAZ. Within this project, OEM is performing work on creation of an inline 6 cylinder engine, the KAMAZ-910.40 that meets the Euro-6 Emission standard. The initial prototype of the engine has been assembled.

New engine should have NOX reduced in 5 times, particles – in 2,5 times, ammonia – in 2,5 times, comparing to its predecessor. There are also stricter requirements to engine diagnostics.

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Scania Tests Euro VI Engine in Brazil

SOUTH AMERICA REPORT

The 13 liters with Scania Twin SCR aftertreatment developed in Sweden is tested in Brazil for the new Proconve P8 products, already in place for new models and mandatory for all models by January 2023. The homologation process at IBAMA is already advanced but may show adaption needs to Brazilian environment. This engine is part of a completely new powertrain and brakes system with higher efficiency and lower emission. The power range vary from 420 to 560 hp and it is prepared for HVO use.

Source: Automotive Business     Read The Article

PSR Analysis: The use of edge technology at Scania Trucks in Brazil is in line with the amount of exports Scania makes to Europe and to lower emission regions. The higher efficiency will bring increased sales to South America as fleet owners seek lower fuel consumption. PSR

Fabio Ferraresi is Director, Business Development-South America, for Power Systems Research

Sollers-Ford Restarts Engine Plant in Elabuga

Maxim Sakov
Maxim Sakov

JV Sollers-Ford will resume production at its engine plant in Elabuga; the plant was closed in the summer of 2019 after Ford has left the Russian Passenger Car market. The engine plant in Elabuga is again owned by JV. Total investment in new project is expected to exceed US$ 8 million (627 million rubles).

The plant will produce diesel engines for LCV Ford Transit units. Mass production is planned for 2023, and production capacity will be 25,000 engines per year.

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New Russian 653hp Engine for Grain Combines

RUSSIA REPORT 
Maxim Sakov
Maxim Sakov

Tutaev Motor Plant has completed creation of 18.5 liter 8 cylinder Vee diesel engine TMZ-8807.10 with two turbochargers, electronic operation system and iron cast cylinder block heads. The powertrain pushes out 653 hp and is a part of new engine family, the TMZ-880. The development of the TMZ-880 family was started in 2016.

The new engine will be tested on the AG combine Palesse KVK-8060 made in the Belorussian Gomselmash plant in 2022. It will replace the German Mercedes OM-502LA. Decisions about mass production will be made, depending on test results

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PSR Analysis: A few years ago, Tutaev Motor plant became part of the KAMAZ structure. Since then, it has received a good boost in development. Among the new projects of TMZ are a joint venture with Chinese Weichai, and a new HHP engine range. PSR

Maxim Sakov is Market Consultant – Russia Operations for Power Systems Research