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2022-10-21

Mexico Truck & Bus Update. Alternative Power Sources Displayed

Show Report: Expotransporte 2022
PSR-Show-Reports-Expotransporte-2022_F2Download

Editor’s Note: This report includes a conversation with Miguel Elizalde Lizárraga, the executive president of ANPACT (the National Association of Bus, Truck and Engine Manufacturers) and a visit to the Expotransporte 2022, the largest truck show in Latin America.

Lorena Violante
Lorena Violante

ANPACT represents the trucks, buses and engine manufacturers in Mexico. It participates actively with government organizations and other important related associations to ensure the truck and bus industry gets enough support, incentives, alliances, agreements and information to grow in the local market. Also, to continue with their outstanding role as one of the most important exporters of heavy duty vehicles globally.

The ANPACT gathers the most important trucks, buses and engine manufacturers in Mexico such as Kenworth, Freightliner, International, Mercedes Benz, Man, Volkswagen, Scania, Dina, Mack, Volvo, Isuzu, Hino, Detroit and Cummins.

During our conversation, Elizalde provided timely insights into the Mexican transportation industry and the major market challenges this country is facing today.

Chris Fisher
Chris Fisher

Vehicles manufactured in Mexico produce an important impact on the country’s economy, logistics and mobility. For example, 71% of the foreign trade value is moved to the US through heavy duty trucks. Much of the movement of goods in Mexico is through trucks, and people use buses as their main transportation.

According to ANPACT´s August statistics, manufacturers produced a total of 127,858 heavy duty vehicles from January through August this year. This is 18% more than 2021 production. Through August, export volumes increased by 15.7% (106,824 units) compared to 2021. Retail demand has increased so far by 20.5% (25,196 units).

Current challenges the transportation industry is facing today in Mexico include road safety, environmental regulations implementation, supply chain lead times, driver shortage, e-commerce, vehicles renewals, safety and energy infrastructure.

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2021-05-24

Powersports Recreational Equipment Update

EDITOR’S NOTE. Power Systems Research tracks the global trends powersports recreational equipment, especially the electrification of these units. This is one of a series of reports on these trends.

Michael Aistrup
Michael Aistrup

HARLEY-DAVIDSON LAUNCHES LIVEWIRE. Harley-Davidson has announced the launch of LiveWire as an all-electric motorcycle brand.  With LiveWire, H-D hopes to redefine electric, delivering a better experience for the urban rider.

The first LiveWire branded motorcycle is scheduled to launch on July 8, 2021, and to premiere at the International Motorcycle Show in Irvine, Calif., on July 9, 2021.

Harley-Davidson’s LiveWire strategy includes these key take-aways:

  • Unique lineage: LiveWire draws on its DNA from the lineage of Harley-Davidson, capitalizing on a decade of experience in the EV sector.
  • Motorcycles + beyond:  with an initial focus on the urban market.  
  • Virtual HQ: LiveWire will be headquartered virtually, with initial hubs in Silicon Valley, CA (LiveWire Labs) and Milwaukee, WI.
  • Marketplace: LiveWire will work with participating dealers from the Harley-Davidson network as an independent brand. A go-to-market model will blend digital and physical retail formats.
  • Dedicated showroom: LiveWire will operate dedicated EV showrooms in select locations, starting in California.
  • Technology focus: LiveWire plans to develop the technology of the future and to invest in the capabilities needed to lead the transformation of motorcycling. LiveWire expects to benefit from Harley-Davidson’s engineering expertise, manufacturing footprint, supply chain infrastructure, and global logistics capabilities.  
  • Technology sharing: Harley-Davidson and LiveWire intend to cooperate and share their technological advancements to ensure an industry leading application in their respective core segments.

POLARIS FIRST QUARTER 2021 EARNINGS RESULTS. Polaris released first quarter 2021 results with reported sales of $1,951 million, up 39% from reported sales of $1,405 million for the first quarter of 2020. The company reported first quarter 2021 net income of $134 million compared with a net loss of $5 million for the 2020 first quarter.

Gross profit increased 64% to $481 million for the first quarter of 2021 from $293 million in the first quarter of 2020. Reported gross profit margin was 24.6% of sales for the first quarter of 2021.

Polaris Product Segment Highlights:

  • Off-Road Vehicles (“ORV”) and Snowmobiles totaled $1,232 million for the first quarter of 2021, up 50% compared to $824 million for the first quarter of 2020. PG&A sales for ORV and Snowmobiles combined increased 51% in the first quarter of 2021 compared to the first quarter last year.
  • Motorcycles totaled $166 million, up 31% compared to the first quarter of 2020, driven primarily from increased sales of Slingshot, Indian Motorcycles. 
  • Global Adjacent Markets segment sales, including PG&A, increased 27% to $125 million in the 2021 first quarter compared to $98 million in the 2020 first quarter driven by increases in demand in North America and EMEA.
  • Aftermarket segment sales of $230 million in the 2021 first quarter increased 14% compared to $202 million in the 2020 first quarter. Transamerican Auto Parts (TAP) sales of $193 million in the first quarter of 2021 increased nine percent compared to $177 million in the first quarter of 2020.
  • Boat segment sales increased 29% to $199 million in the 2021 first quarter compared to $155 million in the 2020 first quarter, driven by sales growth in all three brands, Bennington, Godfrey and Hurricane.

POWERSPORTS MARKET ANALYSIS. The powersports market observed a slowdown during the first two quarters of 2020 driven by the spread of the COVID-19. Shortages of labor and materials in the first quarter led to many industry challenges. Governments began lifting the lockdown restrictions to stabilize the economic activities in the third quarter of 2020. During this period, the powersports industry witnessed steady growth owing to the rising inclination of individuals toward participating in outdoor recreational activities while complying with social distancing norms. 

Powersports market size exceeded $34 billion in 2020 and is expected to grow at around 6% CAGR between 2021 and 2027. The global power sports unit sales are anticipated to reach over 3 million units by 2027.     PSR

Michael Aistrup is Senior Analyst covering Recreational Products for Power Systems Research

2020-05-23

COVID-19 Update: ARGO Tractors Resumes Manufacturing

Production has resumed in ARGO Tractors plants after being shut down for almost two months.  Different measures were put in place in order to comply with government health regulations.  In April ARGO started to sanitize the factories and prepare to resume operations.  Protection equipment is distributed to workers who must keep social distancing and whose temperature is registered at the entrance of the factories. 

Source: Argo Tractors      Read The Article

Source: PSR OE Link™

PSR Analysis: The prolonged halt in production and the continuous uncertainty related to the development of the coronavirus pandemic had a significant impact on the global agricultural industry and on ARGO tractor volumes.   Despite that, with the re-opening of the production lines the Italian OEM was able to address the orderbook received before the start of the lockdown, and at the same time, collect new orders. 

According to our forecast, we expect production to be down 16% this year.  However, this performance might turn a bit less bitter if the current pandemic evolution does not result in a second wave of lockdowns in the coming months. PSR

Emiliano Marzoli is Senior-Business Development Manager-Europe

2021-04-25

NA Powersports EV Update

Read the complete report in April PowerTALK™ News

EDITOR’S NOTE. Power Systems Research tracks the global trend of electrification of industrial equipment. This is one of a series of reports on these trends.

Michael Aistrup
Michael Aistrup

Polaris INDUSTRIES, Minneapolis, is planning to debut a new electric Ranger utility side-by-side in December 2021. The Ranger will be the first electric vehicle Polaris has developed through their partnership with Zero Motorcycles. 

The electric Ranger is the first product in Polaris’s long-term plan to accelerate its leadership in powersports electrification. Production will take place in Polaris’s Huntsville, AL facility.

Bombardier Recreational Products Inc. (BRP), which owns popular brands such as Can-Am, Rotax, Sea-Doo and Ski-Doo, plans to offer electric models in each of its product lines by the end of 2026. The company is investing $300 million in product development and production facilities.

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2022-06-25

E-Motorcycles Market Update

NORTH AMERICAN REPORT
Michael Aistrup
Michael Aistrup

The global e-motorcycle market has experienced high growth in the last couple of years, fueled in part by the declining price of Lithium-ion batteries. The battery is one of the most expensive components of an e-motorcycle, and changes in the price of Li-ion batteries affect the entire cost of an e-motorcycle. The cost of Li-ion batteries has been steadily declining, and this trend is likely to continue.

Power Systems Research has forecasted the global CAGR for electric motorcycles, at 11% for the years 2022 – 2027.

Drivers-of-Demand for this forecasted growth are:

  • Increased environmental concerns.
  • Higher fuel efficiency of e-motorcycles compared to conventional motorcycles.
  • Increased demand for sustainable transportation.
  • New incentive programs for e-motorcycles driven by government units.
  • Advancements in technology such as high-speed handling, smaller/compact size, quicker acceleration, and reduced motor weight.
  • Introduction of fast-charging stations.
  • COVID-19 virus played a vital role in increasing the demands for the e-motorcycle. Pandemic halted the manufacturing of vehicle components and OEM parts for conventional motorcycles and available e-motorcycles in the market became the first choice among the consumers.
  • Expanding dealer and distributor network promoting the e-vehicle and its advantages.
  • Consistent research and technological advancements in the automobile industry to provide advanced technologies to e-motorcycles

Two factors hampering the growth of the market are the comparatively higher initial cost for e-motorcycles and the lack of a developed charging infrastructure. PSR

Michael Aistrup is Senior Analyst specializing in Recreational Products at Power Systems Research

2020-04-25

COVID-19 Update: Europe Slowly Resuming Production

April 21, 2020–After four weeks of lockdown, some European countries are slowly lifting restrictions, allowing industrial production and some commercial operations to restart, and restoring some freedoms to their citizens.  

Emiliano Marzoli
Emiliano Marzoli

In Italy, this week represents a key moment as some industries can resume production.  Agricultural and Lawn&Garden OEMs can reopen their factories, although respecting strict regulations that will reduce factory capacity.  The same is happening in Spain starting April 13, with all segments resuming work, but with differences across regions.  Moreover, many OEMs were not able to meet the new working regulations and could not resume production.

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2023-03-26

Cummins Agnostic ICE’s and Hydrogen Fuel Update

NORTH AMERICA REPORT
Chris Fisher
Chris Fisher

Cummins plans to introduce their agnostic ICE engine platforms with testing to begin in 2024 and series production to start in the 2026/2027 timeframe.  The engine platforms use a common base engine.  Below the head gasket the engines will mostly have similar components and above the head gasket the engine will have different components for different fuel types.  The new platforms will include the B6.7, X10 and the X15 engines.  The X10 will ultimately supersede the current L9 and X12 engine platforms.  

In North America, Cummins plans to introduce the agnostic engine platforms starting in 2026.  Diesel and natural gas will be the first fuel types introduced and hydrogen versions will soon follow.

Sources:  FleetOwner  Cummins X Series Agnostic Engines  Cummins Agnostic Overview

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2023-09-15

Hydrogen Fuel Cell MH Commercial Vehicle Update

Chris Fisher
Chris Fisher

With regards to zero-emission medium and heavy vehicles, we have heard during the past few years that battery electric commercial trucks will ultimately replace the diesel-powered internal combustion engine for commercial trucks.  At some point in the future this might be true for short and regional haul freight carriers but what about the long-haul heavy truck segment? 

Currently, the lack of charging infrastructure, range anxiety and the extreme weights associated with the batteries will be a significant deterrent to mass adoption of long-haul battery electric trucks.  However, hydrogen fuel cell trucks for long-haul applications appear to be a viable option in this segment.  Even though fuel cell trucks currently have a greater range and lighter weight than battery electric trucks, they have the same problem as electric trucks due to a lack of a power infrastructure.

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2020-06-22

COVID-19 2020 North American Impact: Ag, -12%, Construction, -14%

HDMA-PSR COVID Webinar Presentation

COVID-19 continues to batter production of off-highway equipment as we continue to move through 2020. The effects of the virus on Agricultural and Construction equipment production in North America were analyzed in a June 17 webinar presented by the Heavy Duty Manufacturers Association (HDMA) and Power Systems Research (PSR). The webinar updated information presented in PSR’s webinar in April.

Jim Downey
Jim Downey

The PSR webinar team was Jim Downey, PSR vice president-global data products , and Yosyf Sherementa, PhD, PSR director-product management and customer experience.

PSR projects AG to be down 9.4% and CN to be down 11.3% when comparing global production for this year (2020) to last year (2019).

China and India which have the largest volumes for ag machinery are the lower side for production percentage drops this year. China which is also the largest producer of construction equipment is not expecting a decline this year.

Yosyf Sheremeta
Yosyf Sheremeta

A slight recovery for Construction equipment is expected in 2021, but not until 2022 for Agricultural machinery. Ag sector recovery will ultimately depend on overall economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic.

The construction segment will not return to pre-virus production volumes for another few years, at best. We’re looking out to 2024 or possibly 2025 to get back to 1.48 million units.

We don’t see a V-shaped type scenario on the horizon in North America, but rather recovery will look like something between a “U” and an “L.” Somewhat of a swoosh shape or upward sloping L.  Economic activity will slowly return to a sense of normalcy as the curve of new COVID-19 cases flattens.

Government support and intervention will be needed, and stimulus will provide an economic backstop. We expect modest growth in 2021. Pent-up demand and continued economic stimulus should also help with rebound.

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2022-01-22

In 2025, China’s Construction Machinery Electric Drive Products May Reach 25%

CHINA REPORT
Jack Hao
Jack Hao

Electrification has become one of the important directions of green development within China’s construction machinery segment. Domestic construction machinery leaders have increased the development of equipment electrification and have launched a variety of electrification products.

Some professional organizations predict that by 2025 the penetration rate of main products may reach 25%. The electrification of construction machinery initially replaces conventional diesel engine drive with electric drive and then the hydraulic device is replaced by an electric device. Concrete mixers, truck cranes, muck trucks, excavators and wheel-loaders are the most easily electrically driven products, especially for small construction machinery.

Source:  CLS     Read The Article

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