Q2 2023 Economic Update Is Mostly Positive

News: Regions

2023-07-27

Q2 2023 Economic Update Is Mostly Positive

GLOBAL REPORT
Guy Youngs
Guy Youngs

SUMMARY. There are several factors that could contribute to modest growth in the second half of this year as we await final numbers for the quarter. This should lead to total production globally growing at +2.6% in 2023 (vs 2022). Given this 2023 growth, the outlook for the years into 2028 remains positive.

Apart from Russia and Ukraine, the main country to show a decline is South Korea, while Japan is barely positive. However, the segment picture shows some differences.

  • Fuel prices have eased recently, but they remain a serious concern.
  • Supply chains remain constrained.
  • The war in Ukraine shows no sign of a speedy conclusion, despite recent successes by Ukraine.
  • Ukrainian exports of wheat, other grains and fertilizer continue but are still low compared to pre-war levels.
  • Inflation continues to be a concern and central banks are raising their interest rates. This will pose a risk to economic growth in all regions. Inflation and price increases are putting OEMs in a tricky situation.
  • Risk of recession appears in several countries including the USA and Germany.
  • Covid is still lingering with global deaths now at over 6.9 million, but the death rate has slowed considerably.
  • Latent demand for machinery keeps bursting out into the open.
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VW Claims New Dry Battery Process Is Money-Saver

Battery technology is constantly evolving as scientists, and vehicle and battery manufacturers seek to improve battery technology that will lead to less expensive electric cars with longer range and faster charging times. In the latest development, Volkswagen says it has come up with a new dry coating process that will allow it to lower the price of its electric cars by several hundred dollars. Dry coating reduces energy consumption in the production of battery cells by 30%, which could lower the cost of electric cars by several hundred dollars per vehicle.

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What Is the Future of Alternative Power?

Guy Youngs
Guy Youngs

Making the switch from diesel powered machines to a low carbon option is not as simple as some would argue. Switching to electric has drawbacks such as their modest power density, which currently holds back their ability to power heavy equipment for a full working day. Cost is another important consideration.

So, what about HVO (Hydrotreated Vegetable Oil)? HVO, which is of particular interest to many equipment manufacturers, is obtained from cooking oil waste, grease and fat residues, waste fats and vegetable oil. The manufacture and use of HVO is nearly climate-neutral when only renewable energy sources are used in the production process. The problem with this fuel is its availability.

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BYD Expands Production in Brazil

BRAZIL/SOUTH AMERICA REPORT 
Fabio Ferraresi
Fabio Ferraresi

BYD announced the installation of an industrial complex in Camaçari, Bahia. The largest manufacturer of electric vehicles in the world, the Asian giant will invest, in five years, about US$ 600 Million (R $ 3 Billion) in the installation of three factories at the Bahia complex, generating about 5,000 direct and indirect jobs. In addition to passenger vehicles, electric bus and truck chassis will be made on site, as well as a battery split.

The company will take over Ford’s facilities. The deal, however, has not yet been officially announced. The Camaçari pole is the last factory that still belonged to the North American brand in Brazil. The automaker, which announced the end of its local production in 2021, has already sold its facilities in Taubaté (SP) and São Bernardo do Campo (SP).

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First VW Truck Produced in Argentina

The first Volkswagen truck has just left the new exclusive area for the assembly of commercial vehicles of the Industrial Center of Córdoba, Argentina. The vehicle, a VW Delivery 11,180, will be used in the validation of the manufacturing process and for the training of employees. Then it will be part of the fleet that will run tests around the country. The agreement announced by Volkswagen Caminhões e Ônibus and Volkswagen Argentina in December 2022 provides for the manufacture of five models of the brand in that country from 2024.

The new assembly line in Córdoba occupies an area of 15,000 square meters to produce the VW Delivery 9,170 and 11,180 trucks, the VW Constellation 17,280 in chassis-cab and horsepower versions, as well as the Volksbus 15.190 OD bus chassis.

Source: Press Release   Read The Article

PSR Analysis. This production is an important milestone for VW’s plan to produce in scale in 2024 and forward. Forecasts of introduction and production/sales ramp ups are available in PSR’s OE Link/OE Link Sales databases. PSR

Fabio Ferraresi is Director Business Development-South America for Power Systems Research

Alternative Propulsion MHVs Down 55% YTD in Brazil

Unlike what happened with automobiles, in which new propulsion technologies registered an increase of almost 60% in the first half of 2023, heavy vehicles powered by electricity or gas dropped 55.5% in this period.

From the 604 units licensed in H1 2022, the volume fell to 269 from January to June this year. The survey was released by the National Association of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers (Anfavea).

Source: Automotive Business    Read The Article

PSR Analysis. Although OEMs say the drop is in line with the overall market reduction, the ICE market does not account for the significant decrease in sales. Sales from January to June 2023 are only 1% below 2022 in the same period. The small volumes and the size of orders can explain the oscillation with orders postponed from Q1 2023 and Q2 2023 with expectations for incentives and better credit in the second half of 2023.

Fabio Ferraresi is Director Business Development-South America for Power Systems Research

Offshore Hydrogen Could Be 10x Cost Of LNG

European energy policy makers apparently are taking a DNV report on offshore hydrogen manufacturing seriously. But this doesn’t stand up to scrutiny, in either its assumptions or its conclusions, according to this article.

DNV is an international classification organization that sets standards for ships and offshore structures, according to Wikipedia.

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BYD Establishes JV To Produce Sodium-Ion EV Batteries

Guy Youngs
Guy Youngs

Chinese automotive conglomerate BYD is establishing a joint venture with Huaihai Holding Group to establish themselves as the world’s largest supplier of sodium-ion batteries for small EVs. Previously, we’ve seen CATL (BYD’s main competitor), announce plans to produce sodium-ion cells.

Sodium-ion batteries deliver a lower energy density than traditional lithium-ion cells but cost notably less to produce. Their main component (sodium) is also safer and more abundant than lithium. The chemistry is ideal for smaller EVs that generally deliver less range and have less demand on a daily mobility basis.

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Scania Launches HV Truck with 900km Range

The X-gas line, presented by Scania in June 26, in Piracicaba (SP) will have versions with powers of 280, 340 and 410 horsepower, and has a range of 900 kilometers, 400 km more than Scania’s debut version in the gas segment.

The longer range was made possible by increasing the number of cylinders that store fuel in the chassis of the vehicles. There are 16 tanks, eight on each side, with a capacity ranging between 118 and 95 liters. In the gas truck previously launched by Scania, there were eight tanks in total.

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