Forecast: Component Shortages and Supply Chain Disruptions

Chris Fisher
Chris Fisher

Since the latter part of last year, North American heavy commercial truck orders have been extremely strong as freight rates remain very high.  Both contract rates and spot rates are in record territory, primarily driven by consumer spending, a strong housing market and an improving manufacturing sector. 

The anticipation of the stimulus spending and increasing vaccination rates for Covid-19 are also driving optimism in the economy.  However, rising inflation could derail the improving economy.

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DATAPOINT: NA Scooters, 2021 Production, 431,900

431,900 units is the estimate by Power Systems Research of the number of Scooters to be produced in North America (Mexico and the U.S.) in 2021.

This information comes from industry interviews and from two proprietary databases maintained by Power Systems Research: EnginLink™ , which provides information on engines, and OE Link™, a database of equipment manufacturers.

Market Share: Dominating the NA market for Scooter production is Mexico-based Italika with 89% of total units produced.  In second position is Honda-Mexico with 11%; third is US-based Go-Ped with 178 units.

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Enhancements Made in MHV Segment Data

Joe Zirnhelt
Joe Zirnhelt

As we move through the 2021 year, we at Power Systems Research are working to include enhancements within the data for our Medium and Heavy Vehicles segment that is available in OE Link™, CV Link™ and PartsLink™.

We have added several new fields to increase the value of the data to users as they analyze and further segment the markets.  These enhancements, now available as of March 31, 2021,  include:

OEM Assembly Information for Knockdown (Kit) Production. New fields including OEM Assembly Type (Kit vs. Full),  OEM Assembly Plant and OEM Assembly Country which will help in the analysis of OEMs involved in knockdown production (i.e. Kit) where initial production of the engine and chassis are different from the final OEM Country.

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Thuy Trinh Nguyen Wins $2,000 Scholarship from Power Systems Research

Thuy Trinh Nguyen, a senior at Eagan High School, Eagan, Minnesota, is the recipient of the 2021 Power Systems Research $2,000 academic scholarship. This scholarship is awarded to a student who will be attending a four-year college with a career objective in Science, Technology, Engineering or Mathematics.

She will use the scholarship to study biology and sociology (Pre-Med) at Harvard College.

“My favorite subject,” says Thuy, “is AP Physics–it not only taught me how to calculate my initial velocity, but also helps me recognize the fundamentals of life. Everything is organized with a plan.”

Thuy’s favorite pastime is shopping for the best deals at the Mall of America, and never being tired of shopping. (“Sorry, Dad!”) She also enjoys watching One Direction music videos and crocheting.

Her favorite high school memory: “After the Chemistry finals for Trimester 2, Mr. Elliott somehow allowed me to make ramen in his class. It certainly made up for the headache I got from balancing chemical equations.”

This year, 112 students will receive scholarships totaling $129,950 through the program.

Power Systems Research has been supporting high school science and engineering programs for many years. It has been donating to the Eagan Foundation Scholarship program since 2013.

Another program PSR funds is the Experimental Vehicle Team at St. Thomas Academy in suburban St. Paul, Minnesota. The school successfully competes in international competitions with high schools and universities to build the most energy efficient vehicles. PSR

PSR-HDMA Present Webinar April 21, 2021

Current and Future Supply Chain Concerns For Medium and Heavy Vehicles Will Be Discussed

Erik Martin
Erik Martin
Chris Fisher
Chris Fisher

Power Systems Research April 21, 2021, produced a one-hour webinar with the Heavy Duty Manufacturers Association (HDMA) discussing current and future supply chain concerns, especially as they affect Medium and Heavy Commercial Vehicles. 

The presenters included:

  • Chris Fisher – Senior Commercial Vehicle Analyst, Power Systems Research
  • Erik Martin – Director, Asia Region, Power Systems Research
  • Richard Anderson – Director, Market Research & Analysis, HDMA

NA Powersports EV Update

Read the complete report in April PowerTALK™ News

EDITOR’S NOTE. Power Systems Research tracks the global trend of electrification of industrial equipment. This is one of a series of reports on these trends.

Michael Aistrup
Michael Aistrup

Polaris INDUSTRIES, Minneapolis, is planning to debut a new electric Ranger utility side-by-side in December 2021. The Ranger will be the first electric vehicle Polaris has developed through their partnership with Zero Motorcycles. 

The electric Ranger is the first product in Polaris’s long-term plan to accelerate its leadership in powersports electrification. Production will take place in Polaris’s Huntsville, AL facility.

Bombardier Recreational Products Inc. (BRP), which owns popular brands such as Can-Am, Rotax, Sea-Doo and Ski-Doo, plans to offer electric models in each of its product lines by the end of 2026. The company is investing $300 million in product development and production facilities.

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Fastest NA Economic Growth Expected Since 1980s

Read the complete report in April PowerTALK™ News.

Yosyf Sheremeta
Yosyf Sheremeta

(April 1, 2021)–After the GDP declined 3.5% last year, the worst performance in almost 75 years, the US economy is set for a strong comeback.  In fact, we could see GDP growth exceeding 6% this year.

There are many reasons to be optimistic about 2021.  Strong readings of macro-economic factors combined with the economic cycle reset backed by the government initiatives and policies support our estimates for the current year and beyond. 

Our positive outlook is based on the reviews of the key economic indicators, including GDP, unemployment, and inflation.   In our previous forecasts, we discussed recovery trends for the post-pandemic period, stating a return of demand for most markets in 2021, especially during H2 2021.  

Based on our analysis of the expected growth trend and the economic reviews in major publications, we think US growth can surpass the growth level from 1984 – the highest one since 1950s. 

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DATAPOINT: 2021 US ATV Production, 301,000 Units

301,000 units is the estimate by Power Systems Research of the number of ATVs to be produced in Mexico and the U.S. in 2021.

This information comes from industry interviews and from two proprietary databases maintained by Power Systems Research: EnginLink™ , which provides information on engines, and OE Link™, a database of equipment manufacturers.

Market Share: With 28% of total units produced, Polaris Industries leads in production four-wheeled ATVs in North America.  In second and third positions are Honda and Yamaha Motor with 22% and 19%, respectively.

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PSR Partners With HDMA In Webinar

Current and Future Supply Chain Concerns For Medium and Heavy Vehicles Will Be Discussed

Erik Martin
Erik Martin
Chris Fisher
Chris Fisher

Power Systems Research will produce a one-hour webinar with the Heavy Duty Manufacturers Association (HDMA) discussing current and future supply chain concerns, especially as they affect Medium and Heavy Commercial Vehicles. 

When? Wednesday, April 21, 2021 from 1:00 – 2:00 pm ET

What? Future areas of supply chain concerns, secondary effects of logistic and shipping issues, and current economic conditions and demand drivers.

How much? FREE for HDMA members; $100 for non-members

The scheduled presenters include

  • Chris Fisher – Senior Commercial Vehicle Analyst, Power Systems Research
  • Erik Martin – Director, Asia Region, Power Systems Research
  • Richard Anderson – Director, Market Research & Analysis, HDMA

How do I register? By clicking below!

Space is limited, so please register as soon as possible using the REGISTER NOW button on the HDMA website at www.hdma.org. If you are not a PSR Client or HDMA Member, an individual registration is $100.

Hope you can participate. During the session, we’ll discuss the future areas of supply chain concerns, secondary effects of logistic and shipping issues, and current economic conditions and demand drivers, especially as they apply to Medium and Heavy Vehicles. 

Richard Anderson will present the latest findings from his current PULSE member survey, and the session will conclude with a participant Q&A. PSR

DATAPOINT: Global Snowmobiles, 2021 Production, 107,250 Units

107,250 units is the estimate by Power Systems Research of the number of Snowmobiles to be produced in Canada, Finland, Italy, Japan, and the U.S. in 2021.

This information comes from industry interviews and from two proprietary databases maintained by Power Systems Research: EnginLink™ , which provides information on engines, and OE Link™, a database of equipment manufacturers.

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