COVID-19 2020 North American Impact: Ag, -12%, Construction, -14%

HDMA-PSR COVID Webinar Presentation

COVID-19 continues to batter production of off-highway equipment as we continue to move through 2020. The effects of the virus on Agricultural and Construction equipment production in North America were analyzed in a June 17 webinar presented by the Heavy Duty Manufacturers Association (HDMA) and Power Systems Research (PSR). The webinar updated information presented in PSR’s webinar in April.

Jim Downey
Jim Downey

The PSR webinar team was Jim Downey, PSR vice president-global data products , and Yosyf Sherementa, PhD, PSR director-product management and customer experience.

PSR projects AG to be down 9.4% and CN to be down 11.3% when comparing global production for this year (2020) to last year (2019).

China and India which have the largest volumes for ag machinery are the lower side for production percentage drops this year. China which is also the largest producer of construction equipment is not expecting a decline this year.

Yosyf Sheremeta
Yosyf Sheremeta

A slight recovery for Construction equipment is expected in 2021, but not until 2022 for Agricultural machinery. Ag sector recovery will ultimately depend on overall economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic.

The construction segment will not return to pre-virus production volumes for another few years, at best. We’re looking out to 2024 or possibly 2025 to get back to 1.48 million units.

We don’t see a V-shaped type scenario on the horizon in North America, but rather recovery will look like something between a “U” and an “L.” Somewhat of a swoosh shape or upward sloping L.  Economic activity will slowly return to a sense of normalcy as the curve of new COVID-19 cases flattens.

Government support and intervention will be needed, and stimulus will provide an economic backstop. We expect modest growth in 2021. Pent-up demand and continued economic stimulus should also help with rebound.

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Southeast Asia: COVID-19 Stalls China’s Belt and Road Initiative

Southeast Asia’s infrastructure development has begun to stall. China, which has been supporting the project, has been unable to proceed with its Belt and Road initiative for a broad economic zone due to restrictions on movement caused by the new coronavirus.

Akihiro Komuro
Akihito Komuro

Southeast Asian countries also are prioritizing infection control and curbing the funds and human resources they invest in development. A major delay in the construction of infrastructure, which is the foundation of growth, could force foreign investors to reconsider their investment plans.

In Indonesia, work on a high-speed railway (about 140 kilometers) linking the capital Jakarta with the major city of Bandung was recently halted. The project is financed by a Chinese bank, and the state-owned company is involved in the construction. The opening is expected to be postponed from the scheduled 2021.

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JAPAN REPORT: The Impact of COVID-19 on Manufacturers

Japanese OEMs are struggling to adapt to the COVID-19 problem. Plants are being temporarily shut down and production adjustments are being made.

Akihiro Komuro
Akihiro Komuro

While domestic plants are generally operating quietly, overseas bases are being affected in various ways, depending on the country. Here is a summary of announcements by the major companies.

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Impact of COVID-19 in India on Engine-driven Applications

As of today, India is relatively less impacted by COVID than other nations. Because of the very bold and unprecedented move of a complete lockdown for about 40 days, India has managed to restrict the number of positive cases to 17,000.

Ritvik Kulkarni
Ritvik Kulkarni

Considering that India is a country with a population of over 1 billion persons living in challenging on-ground conditions, it is a phenomenal effort of proactive and timely response from the government as well as restraint observed by citizens.

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DataPoint: 2020 Production Estimate, NA Skid Steer Loaders

105,900 units is the estimate by Power Systems Research of the number of Skid Steer Loaders to be produced in North America (Canada and the United States) in 2020.

This information comes from industry interviews and from two proprietary databases maintained by Power Systems Research: EnginLink™ , which provides information on engines, and OE Link™, a database of equipment manufacturers.

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Komatsu Launches SMARTCONSTRUCTION Retrofit Kit

This article appeared in the March 2020 issue of PowerTALK™ News

March 23, 2020–Komatsu has launched the SMARTCONSTRUCTION Retrofit kit, the add-on kit to offer ICT capabilities, such as 3D machine guidance and payload measurement, to conventional construction equipment in Japan in late April through LANDLOG Ltd.

Akihiro Komuro
Akihito Komuro

Conventional construction equipment with no ICT capabilities account for over 98% of all construction equipment working on construction sites in Japan. When the SMARTCONSTRUCTION Retrofit kit is added to conventional equipment, it will enable the equipment to use ICT functions, such as 3D machine guidance and payload measurement, about on par with ICT-intensive equipment.

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CHINA REPORT, March 2020

This article appeared in the March 2020 issue of PowerTALK News

Beijing Municipal Passes Emission Off-Road Regulation

The  Beijing Municipal government officially published an emission regulation paper March 9, 2020.  The regulation is effective May 1, 2020.

Source: Beijing Municipal Government    Read The Article

PSR Analysis: Coronavirus has changed many things in China, but it is not going to delay the implementation or reduce the determination of the Beijing local government to curb air pollution.

Starting in May, we will see more stringent emission regulations and more law enforcement of off-road machines. The regulation gives local government more authority and convenient access to emission device details.  For the first time, this regulation provides regional coordination among Beijing and its neighboring provinces like Hebei and Tianjin.  They are not the only region to do this; more and more cities in Yangtze and Zhujiang Delta region are coordinating on legislation and law enforcement in efforts to curb air pollution. PSR

Qin Fen is Business Development Manager-China

CONEXPO Day 3, CONEXPO

Wacker Neuson Plate Tamper and Compactor

The batteries on these machines run 60 minutes and charge in 80 minutes, which Wacker believes is enough for a typical work day. The machines are surprisingly quiet, given the type of work they do, and they have the added benefit of not emitting fumes into deep excavations with no air flow. The shock system is sufficient that the vibrations barely reach the battery, and they’ve had no issues with vibrations affecting the batteries so far. Unlike with other larger construction applications, and more like in the lawn and garden segment, Wacker believes the demand is already there for battery-powered equipment, and customers will be the ones driving a complete transition to battery rather than OEMs.