The Current Status of Electric Commercial Vehicles
During the past decade, PSR has followed the progress of alternative fuels and technologies such as gas and diesel hybrid, natural gas, and electric along with other renewable fuels. To date, alternative fuels have been relegated to more niche segments and have not penetrated the larger end of the market.
Chris Fisher
Segments such as transit and school buses along with short distance segments like refuse have been the primary adopters of natural gas since they tend to be close to their terminals for refueling and recharging. The bus market along with pickup and delivery trucks are the target segments for electric vehicles in the near term.
Late last year, Amazon placed an order for 100,000 light commercial “Prime” vans from Rivian that will likely be the beta test for the viability of light electric commercial vehicles. These vehicles are expected to begin deliveries next year.
Audi and the utility EnBW are pioneering an energy storage facility built on retired electric vehicle (EV) batteries. This partnership is being billed as the solution to a major problem in each industry.
Tyler Wiegert
For automobile manufacturers, the question of how to recycle retired batteries has been pressing for some time. Utilities have been struggling with the perverse problem that excess generation from renewable sources has been slowing adoption, as surges from those sources can disrupt the stability of power grids.
EV batteries have a functional life of 3-10 years after they are retired from vehicle use, making them a ready tool for use by utilities.
Portland General Electric Company (PGE) also is seeking to create a more resilient grid for the utilization of renewable energy sources. They are launching a pilot program to incentivize the installation of home battery systems to act as a virtual power plant.
In a statement released June 30, Daimler announced it will be investing “a very substantial sum” in achieving a CO2-neutral future for the transportation sector. Hydrogen fuel cell production facilities are currently in development, with an eye toward mass production of fuel cells and their component parts.
Tyler Wiegert
Some of the hurdles Daimler is working to overcome are the needs for highly-filtered air and stable ambient temperature and humidity. The materials and components used in fuel cell production do not allow for an easy transfer in process from conventional engine manufacturing.
MotorIndia Magazine, one of India’s leading publications devoted to commercial vehicles, recently held an important panel discussion on the state of the country’s CV industry.
Jinal Shah
The live webinar panel discussion June 3, 2020, was moderated by Jinal Shah, Regional Director-South Asia, for Power Systems Research.
Shah began with a market prediction of a 45-50% drop in CV sales in 2020 over 2019 figures, necessarily taking the industry back by a decade in terms of progress. While touching upon a clutch of challenges plaguing the CV industry, he claimed the scenario as ‘VUCA’ (short for volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity) in nature – a new normal that we have to accustom to.
“The world is no different. The global CV industry will also see lower demand and output in the short to medium term, which makes it all the more imperative for the domestic industry to become more competitive and grab as much as opportunities,” he said.
At the same time, Shah said, change and uncertainties have always been part of the CV landscape, yet the time frame available for stakeholders to adapt and thrive has shortened recently. “Times like that of COVID-19 have exposed numerous susceptibilities across the value chain that warrants a 360-degree overhaul,” he said.
Other leading industry executives participating in the panel were Anuj Kathuria, Chief Operating Officer, Ashok Leyland; Jayant Davar, Founder, Co-Chairman and MD, Sandhar Technologies; Sushil Rathi, COO (Transport and Procurement), Mahindra Logistics, and Siddharth Bhandari, Chairman of Federation of Automobile Dealers Association (FADA) – Bengal Region, and CEO, Bhandari Automobiles.
In his closing remarks, Shah said all stakeholders should become a change catalyst themselves, and should not wait for the external demand drivers to turn positive. Becoming competitive and collaborative is paramount, he said, thereby focusing more on solutions for the challenges.
“Our businesses have to move from build-to-print models to innovation and R&D-driven enterprises,” he said. “Since the traditional demand drivers are not promising, we need to do a lot internally as an industry to move beyond the uncertainties to make a winning strategy.”
This is neither the first nor the last crisis for this industry, he said, but a crisis of this kind cannot be wasted without gaining good experiences and key learning. “We have to stop playing individually, but join others to perform a symphony to make the difference,” he added.
The symposium of battery change mode for new energy vehicle was held June 15 in Xuzhou, Jiangsu. Data from National Big Data Alliance of New Energy Vehicles suggests that over 3 million new energy vehicles were in the system in 2019 and 900,000 vehicles are running daily. Data also suggest that new energy vehicle GVW range primarily falls under 4.5 tons.
PSR Analysis: Many numbers are in the article, some contradictory. As one of the truck OEMs, XCMG does make some excellent points on the daily use of the battery-powered vehicle, using data collected from end-users, such as working hours, range anxiety and surprisingly, maintenance and downtime.
But I want to point out one potential issue that might travel under the radar: operating cost, more specifically, fuel cost. For large fleet owners like JD.com Inc. or SF Express, fuel cost might be a key factor in choosing a battery-powered vehicle over ICE-powered vehicle for urban delivery.
There are energy companies already working with large industrial businesses to install wind or solar power onsite to address their electricity bill issue. Once completed, giant companies like JD or SF Express will significantly cut down their operating expenses on fuel, in this case, electricity.
There is one game changer out there now. How will ICE-powered light duty trucks compete with battery-powered vehicles, when the latter runs free of charge and free of emission? What will happen to all the components suppliers for light duty trucks, especially urban delivery trucks? PSR
Qin Fen Is Business Development Manager in China for Power Systems Research.
PSR Analysis: A win-win situation for CAMC and Geely. There are still some legal proceedings to finish, but once it’s done, CAMC will save itself from financial trouble and Geely will add an asset to its commercial vehicle lineup. PSR
Qin Fen Is Business Development Manager for Power Systems Research
After the first sale of NG trucks at Fenatran in October 2019, Scania has sold 22 more, including 18 to Pepsico. The forecast of 100 NG Trucks to be sold this year has been reduced because of the pandemic effect.
Power Systems Research published in the June 13 issue of Automotive Business magazine a high level update on perspectives of MHV and Off-Highway segments. See the article at the link below and translated presentation.
PSR Analysis: Although ANFAVEA published a decreased forecast, we believe that the decrease will be lower than the Light Vehicles decrease. Metrics we follow, such as Diesel consumption and the number of Vehicles going through tolls by weight category, show a lower impact in Commercial Vehicles. Other factors: a smaller than expected reduction during the pandemic isolation, agribusiness remaining strong and a lower than expected impact on mining/construction.
Carlos Briganti Is Managing Director, Power Systems Research – SA
MotorIndia is sponsoring a panel discussion of leading industry experts across the commercial vehicle value chain to share their insights on the short- to mid-term challenges in the truck industry.
Jinal Shah
The event will be held Wednesday, June 3, at 5:00 pm IST.
The panel will be moderated by Jinal Shah, Regional Director, South Asia Operations, for Power Systems Research (PSR), a leading provider of global production data for engines and equipment.
The development of fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) that use hydrogen as a fuel for heavy-duty trucks is accelerating. Since the start of 2020, major manufacturers such as Hino, Isuzu, and Daimler have been announcing cooperation with other companies one after another.
Akihito Komuro
In April, Daimler and Volvo announced that they would establish a 50-50 joint venture to develop and mass produce fuel cell heavy-duty trucks.
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