Global Economy On the Path To Economic Recovery, Despite Increased Uncertainty

Yosyf Sheremeta
Yosyf Sheremeta

The global economy is on a healthy rebound trend, but issues with supply chain, logistics and the re-surgency of COVID-19 during Q3 2021 remained.  Power Systems Research witnessed a strong economic recovery globally in H1 2021; however, many challenges still remain.  The rebound will continue to vary widely among different regions/countries, but a complete recovery is not expected until the global pandemic is under control.   With some minor changes among regions and market segments globally, our overall forecast from last quarter remains in place, and that is good news to our industry players, OEMs, powertrain, and component suppliers.

The global economic performance last quarter was in line with our initial projections from earlier this year.  As we projected last quarter, we did not expect any rapid economic recovery in H2 2021, however, we continued to witness a steady increase in economic activities.  During the last quarter of 2021 Power Systems Research expects this trend to remain in place.

Government support in the form of fiscal policies and public health management are driving the economic rebound and largely explain variations in performance across countries. With the targeted monetary support to consumers and certain industries, the demand for products and services globally is coming back, and we expect this trend to carry over into Q1 2022.

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DATAPOINT: 2021 NA Production of Tractors

101,500 units is the estimate by Power Systems Research of the number of tractors to be produced in North America  during 2021. In this report, we consider North America to include Canada, Mexico and the United States.

This information comes from industry interviews and from two proprietary databases maintained by Power Systems Research: EnginLink™ , which provides information on engines, and OE Link™, a database of equipment manufacturers.

Market Share: With combined plant totals of 75% Deere leads in production of AG tractors in North America with about 63,200 units. In second position is Kubota (8,000 units) with 9.5%. Third is Case with about 8%.

Worldwide Distribution: Canada exports about 75% of its North American Ag Tractor production, Mexico, about 60%, and the United States, up to 45% of its total production.

Trends: In 2020, production of Ag tractors in North America decreased nearly 24% to only 84,600 units.  Production is expected to rebound 20% in 2021 to more than 101,500 units.  COVID-19 related factors played a role in the decline last year, especially for parts availability and equipment inventory levels. Expect production to increase 10% by 2025.      PSR

Carol Turner is Senior Analyst, Global Operations, for Power Systems Research

DATAPOINT: 2021 North America Combines

Today Joe Delmont presents the 2021 forecast for Combine production in North America. This forecast has been developed by Carol Turner, Senior Analyst of Global Operations at Power Systems Research. Carol provides annual production forecasts for important equipment applications.

Transcript

Welcome to the PSR PowerTALK podcast produced by Power Systems Research.

00:06

From Power Systems Research, I’m Joe Delmont, editor of PSR PowerTALK.

Today we’ll discuss a data point covering 2021 North American production of combines. When we talk about North America in this podcast, we mean the United States only.

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Jacto Announces Hybrid Self-Propelled Planter

Jacto has entered the planter segment with three products, Uniport 500, Lumina 400 and Meridia 200. Uniport is the first hybrid self-propelled planter in Brazil. It has a Diesel ICE working as an electric power generator and independent electric drives in the four wheels of the equipment. This design promises less fuel consumption, because of a better traction system and uniform planting speed, and consequent better uptime since it reduces stops for refueling.

Source: Press Release / SAE Brazil Mobility Forum   Read the Article

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Rostselmash Increases Investment Program More Than 40%

Rostselmash, the largest Russian AG machine maker, during the period into 2024 will increase investments for production development from US$ 275 million to US$ 390 million (19.9 billion Rubles to 28.5 billion Rubles, respectively).

Initially, the transmission plant was scheduled to make 90,000 gear units per year, but as soon as the plan of tractor production was corrected, planned output of the transmission plant was increased to 150,000 gear units per year. Also, three new painting lines were added.

In the beginning of September Rostselmash started building a new plant in Rostov-Don. It will make tractors, road construction and communal machines. The new plant will make 5,000 machines per year.

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PSR Analysis: With the increased harvest in Russia, increased prices for grain and the remaining State support program, Rostselmash has increased resources for a larger investment program. However, another reason for increasing investment is the growing inflation, which requires additional spending.    PSR

Maxim Sakov is Market Consultant – Russia Operations for Power Systems Research

Sales of Agriculture Machines in Russian Increase 50%

The Russian market for AG machines has increased by 1.5 times during the first six months of this year, reaching 93.9 billion rubles (US$ 1.27 billion). Production volume has increased by 45% to 112.7 billion rubles (US$ 1.54 billion).

The largest growth has been in the output of plows, climbing to 1,800 units and AG tractors – by 43% to 2,800 units. Production of sprayers has increased by 37.3% to 953 units. There has been a modest gain in production of grain combines, increasing 10.2% to 3,800 units, and self-propelled mowers, gaining 2.6% to 228 units.

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Strong Post-pandemic Growth Expected into 2022-23 for North America

Yosyf Sheremeta
Yosyf Sheremeta

SUMMARY.  After the GDP declined 3.5% last year, the worst performance in almost 75 years, the US economy is set for a strong comeback.  There are many reasons to be optimistic about the economy for the next few years, including strong readings of macro-economic factors combined with the economic cycle reset backed by government initiatives and policies.

Our positive outlook is based on the reviews of key economic indicators, including GDP, unemployment, and inflation. 

During H1 2021, we witnessed a strong level of activities and a rebound for many industries.  As local governments eased lockdown restrictions, service-oriented industries gained traction and that translated to an overall increase of economic activities across many industries. 

We expect this level of rebound to continue and we now expect even stronger overall growth for 2021.  The US economy is on track to reach or even surpass the growth level of 1984 – the highest one since 1950s.  In the near term, consumer spending will help drive demand and support the strong growth trend.

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Rostselmash Starts Building Tractor Plant in Rostov-Don

Maxim Sakov
Maxim Sakov

Russia’s largest maker of AG machines – Rostselmash Group of Companies – in July 2021 starts construction of a tractor plant located near Rostselmash’s main production site. Rostselmash plans to invest US$ 66 million (5 Bln Rubles).

Construction must be completed within two years, and the plant will reach its annual production capacity of 3,000 units in 2023.

The plant will consist of a production building of 62,000 sq. meters, and a building for engineering and commercial departments. Total territory of new plant will reach 14 hectares. Rostselmash plans to assemble five tractor models with rigid and articulated frame.

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Second Wave COVID Will Have Limited Impact on India Ag Sector

Aditya Kondejkar

“COVID-19 cases started spreading in the rural areas with the beginning of the month of May, and agriculture activity in the month of May is bare minimal, particularly land-based activities,” says Niti Aayog Member (Agriculture) Ramesh Chand.

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PSR Analysis: The second wave of COVID-19 started spreading in the rural areas in May 2021, but agriculture activities in May are minimal, and are mainly land-based activities. Agri activities peak in March or the middle of April, after which it drops significantly and again peaks with the arrival of monsoon.

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Edge Computing Brings Data Closer To Home

John Krzesicki
John Krzesicki

It’s often said that there’s nothing new under the sun, only new ways of doing old things. That may be especially true in how we handle data.

Ever since Power Systems Research began tracking global production of engines and powertrains in 1976, its analysts have been alert to new trends surrounding power and data movement.

Today, as three essential metrics in data handling change— cloud costs, volume and processing time—, the structure of data networks also is changing. In many cases, it’s not practical to send vast amounts of data to the cloud to be processed and then wait for the results. Now, it’s often necessary to have smaller data centers located near the activity, at the edge of the action, if you will.

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