Follow PSR’s ongoing global coverage of eMobility across a wide range of segments, including electric cars, commercial vehicles, electric motorbikes and e-buses.
Hydrogen fuel cells are still a bit mysterious and likely are unattainable in the near future, but you can actually buy them right now, whether in vehicles or as parts. To demonstrate how practical they are, Alfonso Delgado Ollero built a miniature hydrogen fuel cell to power an RC truck.
The practical concerns of producing the hydrogen in the first place and the energy density being relatively low are relevant when talking about the future of the automotive industry, but according to Alfonso Delgado Ollero, they shouldn’t prevent makers from experimenting with hydrogen fuel cells.
With the exception of 2022 (+7.6%), Battery Electric as a power source is expected to grow between 10% and 17% throughout the forecast period, while ICE growth rates start the period at -2.3% and then grow at less than 1% for 2023 to 2025.
Battery Electric is expected to grow from 12.8% of the market in 2022 to 21.2% by 2027, while during the same period ICEs are expected to decline from 85% of the market to 75%. PSR
Guy Youngs is Forecast & Adoption LeadAnalyst at Power Systems Research
Consumer adoption of EVs has gathered momentum this year, spurred by higher global oil prices. The Russia-Ukraine war has made EVs suddenly more appealing to many car buyers, accelerating adoption globally. The higher oil prices are driving EVs closer to cost parity with internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles. In Bloomberg New Energy Finance’s most recent Electric Vehicles Outlook 2022 report, it projected EV sales to hit 20.6 million units by 2025.
On Tesla’s most recent earnings call, Elon Musk admitted, “We do not have a demand problem but a production problem.” Other car manufacturers such as Ford, for instance, says it can build its F150 Lightning and the Mustang Mach E fast enough to keep up with demand
Cummins $24 million stake in the startup VoltStorage gives them a foot in the door with new iron redox flow technology. There is nothing wrong with lithium-ion energy storage but global demand for energy storage has nowhere to go but up, and so are lithium prices. While lithium is relatively abundant in the ground, but current supply is falling behind demand. At the same time, lithium extraction is messy and has significant environmental impact, causing local opposition to new mines and other facilities which could stall development. Aside from accessing a recyclable supply chain that can avoid conflict issues, flow battery fans note a long list of advantages over lithium-ion technology including lower cost, longer duration, and ease of scalability
PSR Analysis: Cummins has been making investments into EVs (such as the purchase of Brammo in 2017 and Meritor in 2022) for some time and this low cost, long duration, grid scale energy storage battery is part of their plan. This diversifies their portfolio of alternative power systems and helps them in the gid scale storage market. One of the major advantages for flow batteries is that they aren’t lithium-based and are therefore not subject to the same massive and sustained price increases that lithium material is seeing. PSR
Guy Youngs is Forecast & Adoption LeadAnalyst at Power Systems Research
Vinfast has announced plans to export approximately 5,000 EVs to the U.S., Canada, and Europe by the end of 2022. This is the first time for them to export EVs. The company also plans to start construction of a new EV plant in the U.S. by the end of this year, accelerating its global strategy.
According to the plan, exports to the U.S. and other countries will begin in early November, with delivery to customers starting in December. Vinfast’s CEO revealed that the company has orders for approximately 65,000 EVs worldwide.
On Sept. 13, 2022, Honda announced it will eliminate gasoline-powered motorcycles by the mid-2040s. All new vehicles will be EV motorcycles; 3.5 million, or 15% of global sales, are to be EV motorcycles by 2030. Honda has already declared that all its four-wheeled vehicles will be EVs by 2040, but this is the first time the company has laid out a concrete strategy for decarbonization on two wheels.
From now on, Honda will pursue electrification exclusively with EVs. First, it will launch at least 10 EV motorcycle models by 2025. Since investment in new vehicle development and production facilities will be a heavy burden, Honda will use a common platform for batteries, motors, and other components for three large motorcycle models to be launched in Japan, the United States, and Europe between 2024 and 2025.
Formerly using chassis built by other companies, mainly BYD, Marcopolo has announced plans to build its own EV chassis. It plans to produce and offer a complete set of bus chassis and bus body. It plans to deliver of 30 units in different setups for Brazilian cities in 2023.
PSR Analysis: Marcopolo is betting that its own chassis is more competitive for the market from an engineering and product standpoint. While preparing to compete with its chassis suppliers and partners in the EV segment, it still depends on them for the main volume of transit and intercity buses that is ICE powered. PSR
Fabio Ferraresi is Director Business Development-South Americafor Power Systems Research
Volvo’s EV bus is now in the homologation phase in Brazil. Initially it will be produced in Sweden, with plans to be produced in Brazil for the South America market. The Curitiba plant engineering has participated significantly in the Bus Development.
PSR Analysis: Volvo adapt its line-up to compete in the Brazil and South America market that will demand significant part of the volume for the EV models. It is slightly behind Mercedes and Marcopolo with its own bus, but still able to catch-up and compete in main markets. PSR
Fabio Ferraresi is Director Business Development-South Americafor Power Systems Research
Global auto supplier, BorgWarner has announced it is buying EV charging company Rhombus Energy Solutions. The deal will boost its EV charging presence in North America while adding to its European market and will accelerate its charging business by leveraging its existing capabilities. This is the latest in a round of EV related acquisitions the company has made. In August 2021 it took control of AKASOL,(a German EV battery company) and in March 2022, BorgWarner acquired 100% of Santroll Automotive Components (a light vehicle eMotor business).
PSR Analysis: This acquisition will generate good revenue for BorgWarner and continues their move into this market. It’s also a good example of the many acquisitions that OEMs are making into the broad arena of electric power as they see future opportunities. Other recent examples include: Nikola acquiring Romeo Power to bring its battery supply inhouse, Terex investing in Acculon Energy, and Cummins acquiring Meritor (Cummins believes eAxles will be a critical integration point within hybrid and electric drivetrains). PSR
Guy Youngs is Forecast & Adoption Leadat Power Systems Research
Tesla has linked up with bk World to provide its Supercharger stations to offer services to customers while their vehicles charge. Tesla has been trying to deploy its Supercharger stations at properties that include amenities that offer food, coffee, and restrooms, but that is not always easy. At a few locations, Tesla has deployed its own lounges to offer those amenities, including one test site in Germany which even has a swimming pool, and another has a restaurant.
PSR Analysis: With over 300 lounges planned in Europe, Tesla is trying to make the recharge wait time more enjoyable for customers, and at the same time generate another revenue stream. Providing customers with activities while they wait could encourage charger use and could develop charging stations into a destination location like selling customers of IKEA meatballs when they visit a store. Anything to help relieve the boredom of a charge waiting time that can run to an hour or more is an improvement. PSR
Guy Youngs is Forecast & Adoption Leadat Power Systems Research
