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Follow PSR’s team of analysts as they track the rapidly expanding global battery electric power market, including, battery technology, transportation, eMobility, mergers and acquisitions and more.
This article is being written the week after SpaceX successfully brought two astronauts to the International Space Station, which has been celebrated across the country as a great achievement for the United States Space program.
I certainly share the feeling that it is good to be back in space, but there is also this lingering feeling that 50 years after we landed on the moon, we might be somewhere further along than just getting back into space on American-piloted rockets.
Tyler Wiegert
Combining that with a pandemic that has brought us to a public health and economic situation more appropriate for the early 20th century than the early 21st century, and protests over racial inequality issues that many hoped we’d be further along with 60 years after the Civil Rights movement, it feels appropriate to reflect on the phenomenon of future-hype.
The blog article Why Have Home Battery Forecasts Been Staggeringly Wrong for Years? examines the future-hype specifically around home battery systems. Specifically, why were predictions made only four years ago, not 50 or 60 or 100 years ago, so wrong about where home battery systems would be now?
According to the Hyundai Motor Group, both Hyundai and Kia plan to offer 44 eco-car models by 2025, more than half of which will be dedicated to EVs (23 models).
Akihito Komuro
Hyundai revealed in its 2025 strategy announced at the end of last year that it would increase EV and FCV sales to 560,000 and 110,000 units respectively. Kia has set a goal of selling 500,000 EVs and 1 million eco-cars by 2026, with 11 EV models available across all vehicle classes by 2025.
PSR Analysis: At present, both vehicle production and exports fell significantly in April due to the impact of COVID-19. In April, production fell 22.2% YOY and exports fell 44.3% YOY. But when we look at eco-cars, exports and domestic sales increased by 11.5% and 28.3% respectively.
Even during the predicament caused by the new coronavirus, the eco-car ratio is showing an increasing trend. Exports of EVs jumped 94.6% to a record 9,761 units. Of course, the entire South Korean auto industry is badly hurt by the ongoing corona shock.
However, even against this huge drop, Korean-branded eco-cars, including EVs, may be beginning to gain international recognition. Growth in external demand for these eco-cars will be a prerequisite for the recovery of Korean automobile production in the future. PSR
Akihiro Komuro is a Research Analyst, Far East and Southeast Asia, for Power Systems Research
The word “hybrid” in the power generation universe has generally been understood to mean a fossil-fuel engine supplemented by another power source, usually a renewable.
Tyler Wiegert
Then, the word grew to include vehicles and equipment that ran primarily on battery power but could be switched to a smaller engine that would recharge the battery while it ran.
Now, we are entering a time when “hybrid” includes drive systems that are primarily renewable-based and supplemented by an additional renewable system.
In this sphere, alternative power has primarily meant batteries and hydrogen fuel cells; one of the major impediments to wide adoption has always been range.
R&D World magazine recently examined the global market for lithium-ion batteries and concluded that there could very well be a shortage in the next decade. They projected that recent investments will ensure supply keeps ahead of demand for at least the next two years, but that the demand for lithium in 2030 will be 2.3x higher than the global output in 2019, and investments may not be happening at the pace needed to meet it.
Tyler Wiegert
The main bottleneck is that it takes 5-10 years to bring a new lithium or cobalt mine online, but their low prices right now remove some of the incentive to make those investments.
In the absence or shortage of those investments, control of current resources will play a critical role in the production costs of lithium-powered equipment, including on-highway vehicles. In this area, as in many others, Tesla appears to be a leader. The electric car maker has made a number of moves recently to pursue vertical integration, including, most recently, signing a supply deal with Hanwha for battery production equipment. But they are also making moves to secure ownership of the raw materials needed for battery production.
Recently I was at a dinner with visiting members of my family discussing the noble transition that many manufacturers are making from producing their typical goods to producing essential goods and equipment for the coronavirus fight.
Tyler Wiegert
One that came up was Tesla’s transition to making ventilators, and one member of my family began to say that they wouldn’t want a Tesla ventilator if they were hospitalized, because it would probably catch fire and explode.
My fiance is in medicine rather than in our industry, so she took that to be a serious comment about the risk of ventilators sparking in an oxygen-rich environment. But it quickly became clear that this critic just has a deep and abiding skepticism of battery technology, because they repeatedly brought the conversation back to battery fires and cars exploding, despite there having been only 14 reported cases of Tesla vehicles catching fire between 2013 and 2019, with most of those happening after accidents.
Haval, the Chinese manufacturer, said it plans to build its own
engine plant in the Tula region of Russia. Work is scheduled start this month (March
2020). The planned investment in the project is US$ 270 million. This information
comes from press-service of Haval Motor Rus.
Maxim Sakov
It’s expected that the new plant will produce 80,000 engines
annually, increasing the localization level of SUVs by several thousand units
annually. Total personnel number in automotive plant exceeds 1000 people. Read
The Article
PSR Analysis: The first Russian Haval plant opened in May of 2019. Current production capacity is 80 Haval SUVs. The plant will be located on a 10,000 sq.m. site next to the Haval automotive plant. It will provide more than 300 jobs.
Claas is Shifts Production of Tucano 320 Harvester To Russia.
In April 2020, Russian plant Claas in Krasnodar will start
producing the Tucano 320 grain combine. During the first two years, this model
will be produced simultaneously in Germany and in Russia. Beginning in 2022,
the plant in Krasnodar will became the sole maker for this model. The move
opens opportunities to increase production and export volumes for the Russian
plant.
Based on the capacity of EV-equipped batteries sold in
January 2020, the three largest Korean battery companies (LG Chem, Samsung SDI
and SK Innovation) have a combined share of 30.8%, exceeding 30% for the first
time. In the ranking of total power consumption of EV batteries, China’s CATL is
in the top place for the third consecutive year, LG Chem is in third place,
Samsung SDI is in fifth place, and SK Innovation is in tenth place. For the
first time, SK Innovation has joined the Top 10.
HANNOVER, Germany– The impressive Gold Award for Innovation at the Agritechnica 2019 Show was awarded to John Deere for its electro-mechanical power split gearbox.
Stepless transmissions with a hydrostatic-mechanical power split have been used in agricultural tractors for over 20 years. Previously, additional generators for electric drives with a higher power requirement were installed on tractors (fan, compressed-air/air conditioner compressor, etc.) or on implements.
Batteries Are Coming. We Saw Lots of Them at CONEXPO and GIE+Expo 
