Brazilian bus chassis production reached 16,200 units in the first half of 2026, up 3.2% year-over-year, but June output fell 20.8% from May and 15.1% from June 2025, signaling a possible reversal in the production curve. Registrations totaled 10,200 units in the first half, down 11.6% year-over-year, despite a June rebound supported by subsidized credit from Move Brasil 2.
Anfavea revised its 2026 outlook downward, projecting 22,500 registrations, 25,000 chassis produced, and 4,400 exports, reflecting weaker demand, high interest rates, public procurement delays, and the electoral calendar.
Source: AutoData Read The Article
PSR Analysis. Anfavea’s revised projections are now converging with the scenario anticipated by PSR in Q4 2025, based on high interest rates and a decline in the volumes of public funding programs. The segment’s production level is dependent on subsidized credit and government procurement, while delays in Caminho da Escola reduced volumes for the year. Move Brasil 2 supports short-term demand, but the structural outlook remains constrained by financing conditions, public budget timing, and weaker exports. PSR
Fabio Ferraresi is Director, Business Development, South America, for Power Systems Research
