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US Tariffs Could Hurt Japan GDP
Akihiro Komuro On April 12, as I write this, things are still in flux. There is a lot of media coverage every day, with reports on the tariffs reaching almost hysterical levels. The reciprocal tariff rate for Japan announced by the U.S. is 24%, which is an unexpectedly high level given the past relationship between the two countries.
As a result, Japan’s real GDP is expected to fall by about 0.6% in the short term (2025) and 1.8% in the medium term (2029). This will have a huge impact on Japan, which has maintained a growth rate of around 3% per year. It has been reported that Japan is currently negotiating with the Trump administration, but it is doubtful whether the current Japanese government will be able to negotiate effectively with the US. We will see whether the terms will be reconsidered after the negotiations in the future.
I would just like to point out one thing: President Trump talks about Japan’s failure to buy American cars as unfair and negligent, but this is a clear mistake. It is true that American cars do not sell well in Japan. GM is the only company with a formal dealer network in Japan, and it is even hard to find GM dealer shops in Japan. Chrysler pulled out in 2018 and Ford in 2016.
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Kubota Plans Tractor Plant in India, Doubling Production
Akihiro Komuro Kubota plans to build a tractor factory in India, open that will be operational by 2030. The investment is expected to be in the tens of billions of yen. The annual production volume will be increased to approximately 240,000 units, double the current volume.
India accounts for about half of the global tractor market in terms of volume, but Kubota’s market share in the country is only about 25%. The company aims to increase sales by developing new products in cooperation with the local manufacturer it has acquired.
Currently, it produces about 120,000 units a year at three factories, including Escorts, which it acquired in April 2022 for about $953,020,000 USD (140 billion yen). Its production capacity is 170,000 to 180,000 units, but it is expected to fall short of that in the next five years.
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Kanadevia To Build Plant for Hydrogen Equipment
Akihiro Komuro Kanadevia (formerly Hitachi Zosen) said it plans to build the first mass-production plant for water electrolysis equipment, which produces hydrogen by electrolyzing water, in Yamanashi Prefecture.
A company announcement said, “We want to develop this as an important production base that contributes to the realization of a hydrogen society. The company will invest approximately 8 billion yen ($52,000,000 USD) to build a mass production plant for water electrolysis equipment with an annual production capacity of 1 gigawatt (157,000 tons of hydrogen produced).
Construction is scheduled to begin about June 2026, with completion and operation by the end of fiscal 2028. The company plans to position this as a domestic mother plant, and in the future, it envisions gradually expanding its hydrogen production equipment manufacturing bases both in Japan and overseas.
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Tadano Electrifies World’s Largest Cranes
JAPAN REPORT
Akihiro Komuro Tadano, a major manufacturer of cranes, has converted one of its crawler cranes, which can lift up to 1600 tons, to electric power. By changing the power source from a diesel engine to an electric motor, the company has been able to maintain the performance of the existing product while reducing CO2 emissions to zero. The company converted its CC 88.1600-1 lattice boom crawler crane to electric power. This is a large crane equipped with crawlers instead of tires, and is used in plant and bridge construction, as well as wind power installation.
The electrified crane is connected by cable to the main unit and power supply equipment, and two 390-kilowatt electric motors drive the hydraulic pump. There are no CO2 emissions during operation. Compared to existing products powered by diesel engines, this crane will reduce CO2 emissions by approximately 55 tons per year. The crane itself will be manufactured in Germany, while the electrification equipment will be produced in Japan. The crane is expected to go on sale in the summer of 2025 as part of the company’s EVOLT line of electrified products.
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Hyundai To Double Number of Hybrid Models
SOUTH KOREA REPORT
Hyundai Motor in August announced plans to expand its lineup of hybrid vehicles from seven to 14 models in response to slowing global demand for electric vehicles. The company will also use HVs for the first time in its Genesis luxury car brand. The company also announced plans to increase its annual global sales volume by 30% from 2023 to 5.55 million units by 2030, and to invest 120.5 trillion won (about 13 trillion yen) in R&D and capital investment over the 10 years out to 2033. The company will focus on advanced technologies such as next-generation HVs, in-vehicle batteries and automated driving technology.
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Thoughts About FCVs and Hydrogen Stations
Akihiro Komuro I traveled recently in the Toyosu area of Tokyo, an upscale residential area, and while there I stopped at a Hydrogen refueling station. While there, I spoke with one of the station’s staff, and I found his comments interesting.
He told me that the only FCVs on the market in Japan are the Toyota MIRAI sedan and Crown FCEV. Honda used to sell the Clarity FCV, but it has been discontinued and few are seen on the road. There are also no FCVs in trucks. There are about 80 hydrogen buses in Tokyo, but they don’t stop at this station because there is a hydrogen station is in the bus company’s office.
On weekends, maybe four or five cars come to the station each day, but on weekdays there are often days when not even one car comes. It’s very quiet. Filling up with hydrogen requires a person with a national qualification, so it’s not possible to operate it like a self-service gas station.
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