Forecast: Component Shortages and Supply Chain Disruptions

Chris Fisher
Chris Fisher

Since the latter part of last year, North American heavy commercial truck orders have been extremely strong as freight rates remain very high.  Both contract rates and spot rates are in record territory, primarily driven by consumer spending, a strong housing market and an improving manufacturing sector. 

The anticipation of the stimulus spending and increasing vaccination rates for Covid-19 are also driving optimism in the economy.  However, rising inflation could derail the improving economy.

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Q1 2021 Power Systems Research Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) Falls 42.5%

St. Paul, MN (April 13, 2021)— The Power Systems Research Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) dropped 42.5% for the three-month period ended March 31, 2021, declining from 186 to 107, from the fourth quarter of 2020. The year-over-year (Q1 2020 to Q1 2021) improvement for the PSR-TPI was 15%, in which it climbed from 93 to 107.

The PSR-TPI measures truck production globally and across six regions: North America, China, Europe, South America, Japan & Korea and Emerging Markets.

This data comes from OE Link™, the proprietary database maintained by Power Systems Research.

Global Index. While the decline in commercial vehicle demand in China will lower global vehicle demand this year, improved demand is expected in all other regions.

All Regions. Except for China, demand for medium and heavy commercial vehicles has bottomed out and is expected to increase this year and into 2022 as the various economies improve and Coronavirus vaccinations increase.  The market will also experience periodic supply chain disruptions primarily due to the impact from the Coronavirus.

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Edge Computing: Microgrids

In part 3 of “Living on the Edge” John Krzesicki examines microgrids with his guest Thomas Bourgeois, Deputy Director of the Pace Energy and Climate Center.

Transcript

Welcome to the PSR PowerTALK podcast produced by Power Systems Research.

00:06 John Krzesicki

Hello, my name is John Krzesicki. Today it’s my pleasure to host the Power Systems “Living on the Edge” series. The show we have conversation with industry experts on their insight into the future of intelligent technology.

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Q3 2017 Power Systems Research Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) drops 9.5%

St. Paul, MN (October 12, 2017)— The Power Systems Research global Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) deceased from 116 to 105, or -9.5%, for the three-month period ended September 30, 2017, from Q2 2017. However, the year-over-year (Q3 2016 to Q3 2017) gain for the PSR-TPI was 101 to 105, or 3.9%.

Overall, the global commercial truck industry is stronger than it has been in a number of years and is expected to continue to be strong moving into 2018.  While there are still concerns about regional economies such as South America and Greater China, the global economies continue to improve.

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KAMAZ Introduces Hercules Articulated Truck

The first pictures of the new KAMAZ articulated mining truck have been published, showing a configuration of the truck with a 6×6 chassis. It will compete with the Caterpillar 740 and Volvo A40F.

The articulated frame will increase maneuverability and off-road characteristics of the truck. Hercules will be equipped with a hybrid powertrain. The new truck will use a KAMAZ R6 engine of 450 hp, and the nominal output of every electric motor will be 517 hp. The load capacity of Hercules is 40 tons, and the full weight is 75 tons. A light option with 4×4 format and 25-ton capacity are also in the plans.

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Global Recovery: Opportunities and Challenges

SUMMARY. The global economy, especially within the Engine, OEM and Components industries, has felt the immediate impact from COVID: assembly line shutdowns, labor issues, supply chain issues, logistics and transportation to name a few.  The pandemic has exposed many weak links in the global economic chain. However, by end of summer, most of these challenges were either completely resolved or temporary solutions had been put in place. 

Yosyf Sheremeta
Yosyf Sheremeta

Diversification has become the theme during the pandemic recovery, and we expect this trend to continue.  Not only are companies looking for new markets and suppliers to grow top and bottom line revenue as well as to minimize risks, but we see a shift into new industries.  Furthermore, rapid developments of new technologies create massive opportunities for OEMs and suppliers as well as posing real threats to OEMs that solely rely on traditional products that are powered by fossil fuels. 

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KAMAZ Launches First Dump Truck Sharing Service

The KAMAZ truck sharing service works on the classic vehicle sharing model. The company provides a ready-to-use vehicle; the client just needs to fuel it. Optionally, the client can rent the truck with the driver.

It’s possible to take a truck for a period of one day up to one year. The fleet available for rent includes modern dump trucks KAMAZ-65801 up to 32 ton capacity, which is one of most popular models on the market.

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Power Systems Research Truck Production Index drops 13.7%

Global Truck Production REPORT

St. Paul, MN (October 24, 2022)— The Power Systems Research Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) dropped from 110 to 101, or 8.2%, for the three-month period ended September 30, 2022, from Q2 2022. The year-over-year (Q3 2021 to Q3 2022) loss for the PSR-TPI was, 117 to 101, or 13.7%.

The PSR-TPI measures truck production globally and across six regions: North America, China, Europe, South America, Japan & Korea and Emerging Markets.

This data comes from OE Link™, the proprietary database maintained by Power Systems Research.

All Regions. Medium and heavy commercial vehicle production will be mixed this year due to a variety of issues.  In China, truck overcapacity continues to hinder demand while the Russian-Ukraine war is significantly impacting demand and production in Eastern Europe.  The global supply chain will remain a problem through at least the end of this year for all regions.  There is serious concern about a major slowdown in the North American and European economies as a direct result of higher fuel and energy prices and overall inflation which doesn’t appear to be going away anytime soon.

Global Index. Global medium and heavy vehicle production is expected to decline by 13% this year primarily due to a significant drop in heavy truck demand in China.  A slowing global economy along with continued supply chain disruptions will continue to place pressure on demand moving forward.

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Hino Motors and Mitsubishi Fuso To Merge

FAR EAST: JAPAN REPORT

The announced reorganization of several commercial vehicles companies came suddenly and was one that few in the industry expected.

On May 30, Toyota Motor Corporation and Daimler Trucks of Germany announced a business merger between Toyota-owned Hino Motors and Daimler-owned Mitsubishi Fuso Truck and Bus Corporation. The merger is expected to be completed by the end of 2024.

The four companies have reached a basic agreement that calls for Toyota and Daimler to establish a holding company by the end of 2024 with the aim of going public. Hino Motors and Mitsubishi Fuso will become part of the holding company. Toyota and Daimler will hold the same percentage of shares in the holding company, and Hino Motors will cease to be a consolidated subsidiary of Toyota after the merger.

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Q4 2022 Power Systems Research Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) gains 3.7%

St. Paul, MN (Janaury 23, 2023)— The Power Systems Research Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) increased from 101 to 105, or 3.7%, for the three-month period ended Dec. 31, 2022, from Q3 2022. The year-over-year (Q4 2021 through Q4 2022) loss for the PSR-TPI was, 122 to 105, or -13.2%.

The PSR-TPI measures truck production globally and across six regions: North America, China, Europe, South America, Japan & Korea and Emerging Markets.

This data comes from OE Link™, the proprietary database maintained by Power Systems Research.

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