St. Paul, MN (October 12, 2017)— The Power Systems Research global Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) deceased from 116 to 105, or -9.5%, for the three-month period ended September 30, 2017, from Q2 2017. However, the year-over-year (Q3 2016 to Q3 2017) gain for the PSR-TPI was 101 to 105, or 3.9%.
Overall, the global commercial truck industry is stronger than it has been in a number of years and is expected to continue to be strong moving into 2018. While there are still concerns about regional economies such as South America and Greater China, the global economies continue to improve.
The PSR-TPI measures truck production globally and across six regions: North America, China, Europe, South America, Japan & Korea and Emerging Markets.
This data comes from CV Link™, the proprietary database maintained by Power Systems Research.
While production in China also is expected to increase and South Asia also is expected to post gains, India is not expected to do as well. Japan and Korea are expected to decline this year.
With the exception of India, all of the countries of South Asia are expected to have a good year for medium and heavy commercial vehicle demand. Demand has slowed in India with the strict implementation of the BS-IV emission regulations on April 1, which increased the cost of the vehicles by 6% – 10%. There was very little truck pre-buy during Q1 2017, and there was a sharp decline in demand during the second quarter. However, demand appears to have stabilized in the third quarter.
Medium and heavy commercial truck demand are starting to see improvements in countries such as Brazil and Russia in which we expect to see double digit growth this year after a number of years with dismal demand levels. Along with a soft economy and the implementation of Euro VI emission regulations last year, Turkey is still struggling with demand levels.
In North America, medium and heavy commercial truck production is expected to increase by 2.3% this year compared with 2016. The class 8 heavy truck segment continues to improve and production is expected to finish slightly higher than 2016. The medium truck (class 4-7) segment is expected to remain strong with production increasing by 5.2% over last year primarily driven by a strong vocational segment. Demand for class 8 trucks declined last year but demand is improving and is expected to continue into 2018.
Also seeing improvement is Greater Europe. Here, production for medium and heavy commercial vehicles is expected to increase by 5.5% this year compared with 2016. After a relatively strong couple of years in Western Europe, demand has moderated somewhat, but production has improved 3.6% compared to last year. After very low demand in Eastern Europe during the past few years, the market has stabilized and is expected to improve by 15.3% this year as fleets continue to upgrade their equipment.
Detailed comments are contained for each region with a corresponding regional graph in the attached downloadable PDF. PSR
Chris Fisher is the senior commercial vehicle analyst at Power Systems Research
Jim Downey is vice president -global data products at Power Systems Research
