NA Economic Outlook: Slower H1 2021, But Much Stronger H2 2021 Expected

Yosyf Sheremeta
Yosyf Sheremeta

SUMMARY.  In our previous forecasts, we have discussed some hope for a V-shaped recovery, it did not materialize.  Our conclusion was based on several factors, such as the current economic cycle, overall strength of the economy, fiscal policy, political landscape in the US and globally, etc. After managing through the early stages of the pandemic in H1 2020, we saw good trends in H2 2020 and we had reasons to be optimistic for a quick recovery.

However, the recovery took a slight pause during the last few months.  Unemployment continued to increase, and regional lockdowns prevented the necessary demand for a significant year-end growth.  Now that the elections are over, we’ll have yet to see what the new administration will be able to achieve during the next two years.  Specifically, if the long awaited infrastructure reform can be passed.  However, fiscal policy with near zero interest rates, which government has promised to keep in place for the near future, will provide a good platform for the economic recovery and allow us to look optimistically into 2021-2022.

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BorgWarner To Produce Vehicle Batteries in Brazil

BorgWarner said it will start producing battery systems for electric vehicles in Piracicaba-SP, Brazil, by Q1 2023 with declared annual capacity of 1,000 electric units.

The plant in Piracicaba formerly belonged to Delphi and was acquired by BorgWarner in 2020. The plant will receive a production line from Akasol, another company acquired by BorgWarner.

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We Expect 2020 NA Overall OEM Production To Be Flat

This article initially appeared in the February 2020 issue of PowerTALK News.

SUMMARY.  The North American economy remained stable in 2019 and pure economic conditions as well as fundamentals in the region were favorable. Most industries performed very well, and the short-term outlook remains stable to flat for most market segments. However, we see many new developments that could suggest a shift in the trend.

Yosyf Sheremeta
Yosyf Sheremeta

Consumer confidence declined slightly in December, following a moderate increase in November.  The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index stood at 126.5 in December, 1.4 points higher than in September 2019. 

Per Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board: “While consumers’ assessment of current conditions improved, their expectations declined, driven primarily by a softening in their short-term outlook regarding jobs and financial prospects. While the economy hasn’t shown signs of further weakening, there is little to suggest that growth, and in particular consumer spending, will gain momentum in early 2020.”

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Q4 2020 North American Gen-Set Outlook

The Q4 2020 PSR PowerTracker survey provides information on North American gen-set sales from manufacturers, consumers and retailers. Joe Zirnhelt, Power Systems Research, President and CEO, provides the analysis.

Transcript

Welcome to the PSR PowerTALK podcast, produced by Power Systems Research.

00:06 Joe Zirnhelt:

From Power Systems Research, I am Joe Zirnhelt. In today’s PowerTALK podcast we will discuss results from the fourth quarter of 2020 based on our ongoing PowerTracker survey.

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Boot 2020 Wraps Up Successful Boat Show

Natasa Mulahalilovic is PSR MarineLink Product Manager

Emiliano Marzoli is Senior Business Development Manager – Europe

Dalibor Sablic is Senior Business Development Manager – Europe

SUMMARY: The general mood at Boot 2020 this year was very positive. Most builders said they had a very successful nautical 2018/2019 year, and most said they are looking forward to a good year in 2020. The show drew 240,000 visitors who had an opportunity to meet 1,900 exhibitors from 71 countries.

The Sailing boats segment is coming back on track, motorboats of all sizes are doing well, the super yachts segment remains strong, and inflatable boats and tenders have gained in popularity.  The optimistic view for 2020 is based on good year-end results, continuous investments in new technologies, materials, equipment, design and exciting new boat concepts.

Natasa Mulahalilovic
Natasa Mulahalilovic

Modern designs, completely new looks, use of light and solid material, work on multi-functionality and openness of the boats is visible everywhere and in all segments.  Boats are open more than ever, providing more space and light, and bringing riders closer to the water.

The environmental awareness is growing, and a new generation of boaters is looking for cleaner solutions, not just comfort. That’s why the sailing segment is gaining ground, electric boats are appealing to the general curiosity, and small and medium motorboats are more attractive than in last 10 years when the trend was towards bigger motor yachts and super yachts.

17 Halls of Boats, Boats and More Boats

Duesseldorf, Germany–The Power Systems Research (PSR) team spent several days exploring the 17 halls at this year’s Boot 2020 Show, reviewing products and talking with pleasure boat builders, traders and other industry professionals about the latest achievements, innovations and trends.

The 51st edition of Boot 2020, Europe’s largest boat show, wrapped up January 26, after drawing attendance of 240,000 for the nine-day event. People came mainly from Europe, but they came from all over the world, as well.  

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PowerTracker™ Report Q2 2020: Coronavirus Generates its Own Demand

SUMMARY: Gen-set sales in Q2 2020 rose 4.5% from Q1 2020, due to the combination of a halting recovery from the coronavirus shutdowns and new demand generated by COVID-19. While “normal” demand for generators is still weak, evidenced by continuing declines in the power ranges above 50kW, it is being offset by new demand in the power ranges below 50kW. These changes were directionally consistent across fuel types.

Looking by application, Portables and Standbys were slightly positive, while Temporary, Peak Shaving, Baseload, and Cogeneration were all negative by double digits compared to Q1 2020. This translated into a 5% increase in sales to Private consumers, and about 6% decreases in Institutional and Industrial sales.

On a Year-on-Year basis, overall unit sales for Q2 2020 were up 1% compared to sales levels in Q2 2019, with Q1 2020 having almost completely wiped out the gains earned in Q3 2020 of last year.

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PowerTALK™ News, November 2020

If you use construction equipment, or if it’s important for you to know what’s happening in the construction segment in Europe or North and South America, you’ll want to participate in the free one-hour Construction Outlook Webinar produced by Power Systems Research and JCB Power Systems on Monday, Nov. 30, 2020, at 9:00 am CST. You’ll find the details in the November issue of PowerTALK News.

You’ll also find an analysis by Chris Fisher, senior commercial vehicle analyst at Power Systems Research, of the TRATON-Navistar merger. Other top items in this issue include:

  • NA: New Powerboat Sales Up
  • NA: MC Sales Climb
  • NA: B&S Exits Chapter 11
  • NA: Green Power Acquisition
  • NA: Zero MC Partners With Polaris
  • NA: Harley Launches E-Bike Brand
  • DataPoint: US Excavators
  • Europe: Marine Pleasure Market
  • Brazil: First E-Bus Operation
  • SA: Ford Transit Production
  • SA: Columbia Auto Sales Up
  • Japan: Makita Drops Products
  • Japan: Kawasaki Spins Off MC Business
  • Korea: Hyundai Plans Unmanned Plane
  • Thailand: EV Incentives Offered
  • India: Production Incentives
  • Russia: New Diesel Production
  • Russia: AutoVAZ Posts Sales Gains
  • Russia: KAMAZ Develops E-6 Engine

PowerTALK™ News, June 2020

COVID-19 continues to be the main topic of the day for the power industry tracked by Power Systems Research. Read about the impact on North American production of Agricultural and Construction equipment in the June issue of PowerTALK News. The analysis was contained in a June 17, 2020, webinar presented by the Heavy Duty Manufacturers Association (HDMA) and Power Systems Research.

The Top Stories in the June issue are:

  • NA: COVID-19 Webinar
  • NA: Lithium Revolution Is Missing
  • NA: DataPoint: Lawn & Garden Tractors
  • Brazil: Special COVID Report
  • Brazil: John Deere Grader Production
  • Brazil: Pepsico Acquires NG Trucks
  • Brazil: First Foton Assembled
  • China: Geely To Acquire CAMC
  • Japan: Domestic MC Recovering
  • SE Asia: Auto Sales Drop 80%
  • India: EV Outlook Brightens
  • Russia: Construction Machinery Sales
  • Russia: Autotor To Suspend BMW Production
  • Russia: KAMAZ Produces Mining Truck