North American Economic Outlook – March 2021

Yosyf Sheremeta, PhD,  Dir. of Prod. Mgt. & Customer Experience, analyzes the North American economic outlook with special emphasis on the Administration’s efforts to control emissions.

Transcript

Welcome to the PSR PowerTALK podcast, produced by Power Systems Research.

00:06 Jim Downey:

Good morning and welcome to this podcast by Power Systems Research. Today we’ll be discussing the North American market outlook for.2021. I’m Jim Downey, Vice President of Global Data Products here at Power Systems Research. I’m joined by my colleague, Yosyf Sheremeta, who is the Director of Product Management and Customer Experience.

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European Economic Outlook, April 2021

In this episode of PSR PowerTALK, Christopher Bamforth, European Market Analyst for Power Systems Research, comments on his outlook for the European economy.

Transcript

Welcome to the PSR PowerTALK podcast, produced by Power Systems Research.

00:06 Emiliano Marzoli:

From Power Systems Research, hello, I am Emiliano Marzoli, editor of PSR PowerTALK. And today we’re going to discuss the economic outlook for Europe with Christopher Bamforth, our European Market Analyst.

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NA Economic Outlook: Slower H1 2021, But Much Stronger H2 2021 Expected

Yosyf Sheremeta
Yosyf Sheremeta

SUMMARY.  In our previous forecasts, we have discussed some hope for a V-shaped recovery, it did not materialize.  Our conclusion was based on several factors, such as the current economic cycle, overall strength of the economy, fiscal policy, political landscape in the US and globally, etc. After managing through the early stages of the pandemic in H1 2020, we saw good trends in H2 2020 and we had reasons to be optimistic for a quick recovery.

However, the recovery took a slight pause during the last few months.  Unemployment continued to increase, and regional lockdowns prevented the necessary demand for a significant year-end growth.  Now that the elections are over, we’ll have yet to see what the new administration will be able to achieve during the next two years.  Specifically, if the long awaited infrastructure reform can be passed.  However, fiscal policy with near zero interest rates, which government has promised to keep in place for the near future, will provide a good platform for the economic recovery and allow us to look optimistically into 2021-2022.

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Russia Economic Outlook – April 2021

Maxim Sakov, Market Consultant-Russia for Power Systems Research, discusses his Q1 2021 economic outlook for Russia in this episode of PSR PowerTALK.

Transcript

Welcome to the PSR PowerTALK podcast, produced by Power Systems Research.

00:06 Emiliano Marzoli:

From Power Systems Research, hello everyone. I’m Emiliano Marzoli, editor of PSR PowerTALK, and today I will discuss the economic outlook for Russia with Maxim Sakov, our marketing consultant in Moscow. Maxim provides our clients with economic and production forecasts for Russia each quarter. And thank you for joining us today, Maxim.

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Forecast: Component Shortages and Supply Chain Disruptions

Chris Fisher
Chris Fisher

Since the latter part of last year, North American heavy commercial truck orders have been extremely strong as freight rates remain very high.  Both contract rates and spot rates are in record territory, primarily driven by consumer spending, a strong housing market and an improving manufacturing sector. 

The anticipation of the stimulus spending and increasing vaccination rates for Covid-19 are also driving optimism in the economy.  However, rising inflation could derail the improving economy.

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EPA Introduces Phase Three GHG Emission Standards

NORTH AMERICA REPORT
Chris Fisher
Chris Fisher

In early May, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) held a virtual public hearing regarding the Phase 3 greenhouse gas emission standards for heavy duty trucks.  There are various comments and opinions from the stakeholders that attended the hearing.  Along with introducing the Phase 3 Greenhouse Gas (GHG) rules to begin for MY 2028 trucks, the EPA also revised the Phase 2 GHG standards for the MY 2027 truck standards. 

This link from CCJ (Commercial Carrier Journal) is a good overview of the conference.

CCJ: ‘Destined to fail’: Trucking sounds off to EPA on new Phase 3 greenhouse-gas regs

The Environmental Protection Agency this week held virtual public hearings related to its Phase 3 greenhouse gas emissions standards for heavy-duty trucks, unveiled last month. Among the dozens who testified during the hearings, trucking industry stakeholders were part of a small minority advocating for EPA to take a step back and reconsider the proposed standards that would take effect beginning with model-year 2027 trucks.

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Recession May Come Before CASE Is Realized

GUEST EDITORIAL


President and Founder, Japan Electrification Research Institute, Ltd.

SUMMARY. The global auto industry is bubbling with changes and dramatic new ideas, but the current declining financial performances of Japanese auto OEMs may force them to drop out of the race temporarily before they can take advantage of the growing demand for autonomous vehicles.

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COVID-19 Cuts Results at Harley-Davidson, Polaris

Harley-Davidson Q1 2020 Sales Plunge 15.5%

Harley-Davidson said US sales were up 6.6% in the quarter before the pandemic ground the economy to a halt in mid-March. But sales wound up plunging 15.5% in America compared to a year ago and 20.7% internationally. Overall revenue slipped 8% from last year’s first quarter.

For the quarter, Harley-Davidson posted earnings of $69.7 million compared with $127.9 million in the same period a year ago.

Michael Aistrup
Michael Aistrup

Harley-Davidson’s share in the U.S. heavyweight motorcycle market share was down 2.2 percentage points, to 48.9% and the company’s share of the heavyweight motorcycle market in Europe was 7.6% in the first quarter.

In response to the COVID-19 crisis, Harley has reduced planned capital spending, frozen hiring, temporarily reduced salaries, eliminated merit increases for employees in 2020 and changed the timing of new product launches in order to preserve $250 million in 2020.

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