The Future of Commercial Vehicles. Perspectives for Brazil

Published in Automotive Business, August, 26, 2020

1. INTRODUCTION

The use of diesel in Commercial Vehicles and its alternatives has been studied and discussed globally over the past two decades. We have updated future trends annually based on the new platforms in our data and new models in development allowing us a 10-year horizon. In August 2019 we published an article on the subject for Automotive Business Brazil, which is now updating.

Carlos Briganti
Carlos Briganti

In the 2019 article we said that fossil diesel propulsion for commercial vehicles would be exposed to several alternatives and therefore the 20s decade would be a decade of significant changes, justifying yearly monitoring of the subject.

This whole range of studies was then impacted by COVID-19, a new event at the beginning of this decade that is another factor of change in this complex subject.

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2020, A Year to Forget for MHV; 2021 Is Looking Better

Chris Fisher
Chris Fisher

SUMMARY: In this article we provide a global overview on a regional basis of the medium and heavy commercial vehicle market (GVWR > 6 MT’s) along with current trends and OEM happenings in North America.

NORTH AMERICA. MHCV production in North America is expected to decline by 35% in 2020 compared to 2019.  However, orders for class 8 trucks improved significantly in Q4 2020 as large fleets placed their orders for a 2021 build.  This appears to signal an improvement in demand for 2021 as the market aligns itself with the expected freight level moving forward.  The consumer segment was strong during the last half of the year and the industrial segment is now expected to improve, as well. 

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Hydrogen Fuel Cell Truck News

NORTH AMERICA REPORT
Chris Fisher
Chris Fisher

During the past few years there has been plenty of talk about battery electric power replacing diesel-powered internal combustion engines in commercial trucks.  At some point this might be true for short and regional haul freight carriers, but what about the long-haul heavy truck segment? 

Currently, the lack of a sufficient charging infrastructure, range anxiety and the extreme weights associated with the batteries are significant deterrents to mass adoption of long-haul battery electric trucks.  However, hydrogen fuel cell trucks for long-haul applications appear to be a viable option in this segment.  Even though fuel cell trucks currently have a greater range and lighter weight than battery electric trucks, they have the same problem as electric trucks: a lack of refueling infrastructure.

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Power Systems Research Expands Forecast Capabilities and Focus on Technology Adoption 

Guy Youngs Joins PSR Team
Guy Youngs
Guy Youngs

Power Systems Research (PSR), a leading source of global production and forecast information for powered equipment, has expanded its capabilities with the addition of Guy Youngs, an experienced market intelligence specialist.

Youngs, who has more than 30 years’ experience as an industry market analyst, most recently spent 11 years working for Perkins Engines in the United Kingdom.

While at Perkins Engines, he led the development of important forecast tools, including the creation of a Market Model used by Perkins Engines’ global team as a single source for its market analysis and planning efforts.

At PSR, Youngs will assume the new role of Forecast and Technology Adoption Lead. He will be responsible for continuing to develop and adapt PSR’s industry forecast, overseeing the rate of technology adoption of alternative power sources into the future outlook and technology mix. 

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Hydrogen Fuel Cell Truck Happenings in Europe

Chris Fisher
Chris Fisher

We have heard during the past few years that battery electric commercial trucks will ultimately replace the diesel-powered internal combustion engine for commercial trucks.  At some point in the future this might be true for short and regional haul freight carriers, but what about the long-haul heavy truck segment? 

Currently, the lack of charging infrastructure, range anxiety and the extreme weights associated with the batteries will be a significant deterrent to mass adoption of long-haul battery electric trucks. 

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Q2 2021 Truck Production Report

Chris Fisher, Senior Commercial Vehicle Analyst at Power Systems Research, discusses the Q2 2021 global production facts and related forecasts for medium and heavy trucks, as reported in the quarterly PSR Truck Production Index.

Transcript

Welcome to the PSR PowerTALK podcast produced by Power Systems Research.

00:06 Joe Delmont

From Power Systems Research, I’m Joe Delmont, editor of PSR PowerTALK.

Today we’ll discuss global truck production with Chris Fisher. Chris is Senior Commercial Vehicle Analyst at Power Systems Research.

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Brazil Is Key To Emissions Strategies for Oil Companies

Recently, European BP, Shell, Equinor and Total signed the agreement to meet the zero net emissions target by 2050. These companies see the Brazilian market as a key component in meeting this goal while they assemble the projects portfolio with Photovoltaic, Offshore Eolic and biofuel.

Source: AB Solar     Read The Article

PSR Analysis: Brazil has a clean matrix and tradition in biofuel tradition since it began using Ethanol in the 70’s and 80’s. Some companies, such as Shell, operate with biofuel in Brazil, producing and distributing Ethanol, and plan to expand this position to meet future emissions targets. PSR

Fabio Ferraresi is Director Business Development – South America for Power Systems Research

Beiqi Foton Motors and Cummins Set Joint Investment

CHINA REPORT
Jack Hao
Jack Hao

Beijing Foton Motors and Cummins said they will further strengthen their strategic cooperation in the Southeast Asian region and sign a joint investment agreement with the Foton Cummins Thailand engine factory to provide powertrains for the Foton Zhengda vehicle base and Southeast Asian business.

This signing would mark a further strategic cooperation between Foton Motors and Cummins, targeting a wider range of regional markets and providing more diversified power solutions to global customers.

As a global emerging economy, ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) has become one of the regions with the greatest development potential in the world. In recent years, Foton Motors has had significant business expansion in Southeast Asian countries including Thailand, Malaysia, and the Philippines. Their market share has gradually increased in trucks, buses, and other specialized vehicles, and they have built their reputation in the local market.

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TRATON-Navistar Merger Impacts Engine Development

Chris Fisher
Chris Fisher

In November, Volkswagen’s TRATON group and Navistar announced a merger agreement in which TRATON will acquire all outstanding shares of Navistar.  Previously, TRATON held 16.7% of Navistar’s common shares.  The deal is valued at $3.7 billion and is expected to be finalized in mid-2021.

Navistar has been in collaboration with TRATON’s brand MAN for a number of years, primarily with regard to engine development.  PSR believes additional engine offerings will be one of the primary goals to improve profitability and long-term market share improvement within the class 8 truck segment.

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Q1 2021 Truck Production Report

In this episode of PSR PowerTALK, Chris Fisher, senior commercial vehicle analyst at Power Systems Research, talks about the reasons for the 42.5% first quarter 2021 drop in global truck production.

Transcript

Welcome to the PSR PowerTALK podcast, produced by Power Systems Research.

00:06 Joe Delmont:

From Power systems Research I’m Joe Delmont, editor of PSR PowerTALK. Today we’ll discuss global truck production with Chris Fisher, PSR, senior commercial vehicle analyst.

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