Search Results for: psr-forecasts-slow-growth-global-truck-market-2020

Q4 2020 Truck Production Jumps 35%

PSR-TPI-Q4-2020-Jan2021-1Download

St. Paul, MN — The Power Systems Research Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) increased from 109 to 147, or 35%, for the three-month period ended Dec. 31, 2020, from the Q3 2020. The year-over-year (Q4 2019 to Q4 2020) gain for the PSR-TPI was 121 to 147, or 21%.

The PSR-TPI measures truck production globally and across six regions: North America, China, Europe, South America, Japan & Korea and Emerging Markets.

This data comes from OE Link™, the proprietary database maintained by Power Systems Research.

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2020-03-10

Moscow Boat Show 2020 Much Different than Previous Years

MOSCOW–The Moscow Boat Show conducted here March 5-9 in the Crocus City Expo center occupied two exhibition halls with total square of 19,000 sq.m., but it was much different in several ways than previous shows.

Maxim Sakov
Maxim Sakov

The number of boats shown was 30% less than during last year’s event. And the organizers of the show left a lot of empty space even in the dedicated halls. This looked strange because often there were only narrow passages between boats.

Surprisingly, more than 50% of the boats at the fair were produced domestically. Jeanneau, Beneteau and some other brands were also here, brought by a local dealer, but in smaller sizes and numbers than last year’s show. Some EU and Turkish shipyards exhibited at the fair, but did not bring anything besides marketing materials.

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2024-04-17

Global Lawn and Garden Equipment Market

GLOBAL REPORT
Michael Aistrup

The global lawn and Garden Equipment Market, which includes commercial and residential equipment, is projected by Power Systems Research to reach sales of $46.16 billion by 2030. This is a projected increase of $15.96 billion dollars from 2023 to 2030, an increase of 52.8%.

The global impact of COVID-19 is stating to wane and the market is returning to a normal growth rate. Individual homeowners are still interested in lawn and garden care, just not as much as during COVID-19. More people are returning to recreational activities.

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Q1 2020 Power Systems Research Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) falls 31.1%

PSR TPI Q1 2020

ST. PAUL, MN — The Power Systems Research Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) decreased from 122 to 84, or 31.1%, for the three-month period ended March 31, 2020, from Q4 2019. The year-over-year (Q1 2019 to Q1 2020) loss for the PSR-TPI was, 116 to 84, or 27.6%.

The PSR-TPI measures truck production globally and across six regions: North America, China, Europe, South America, Japan & Korea and Emerging Markets.

This data comes from CV Link™, the proprietary database maintained by Power Systems Research.

All Regions: Prior to the spread of the Coronavirus, most regions were experiencing a slowdown in commercial truck demand. Depending on the duration of the virus, several countries are expected to slip into recession or a significant economic slowdown as a result.

Global Index: The possibility of a global recession now exists but it is uncertain how severe this may be. Some regions will fair better than others.

North America: The introduction of the Coronavirus along with an overcapacity of heavy trucks will lead to significantly lower demand in 2020. Prior to the Coronavirus outbreak, concerns about the Chinese tariffs and an overall slowdown in global economic growth were causing some headwinds for truck demand. PSR

Jim Downey is Vice President – Global Data Products at Power Systems Research

Chris Fisher is the Senior Commercial Vehicle Analyst at Power Systems Research

2021-01-22

NA Economic Outlook: Slower H1 2021, But Much Stronger H2 2021 Expected

Yosyf Sheremeta
Yosyf Sheremeta

SUMMARY.  In our previous forecasts, we have discussed some hope for a V-shaped recovery, it did not materialize.  Our conclusion was based on several factors, such as the current economic cycle, overall strength of the economy, fiscal policy, political landscape in the US and globally, etc. After managing through the early stages of the pandemic in H1 2020, we saw good trends in H2 2020 and we had reasons to be optimistic for a quick recovery.

However, the recovery took a slight pause during the last few months.  Unemployment continued to increase, and regional lockdowns prevented the necessary demand for a significant year-end growth.  Now that the elections are over, we’ll have yet to see what the new administration will be able to achieve during the next two years.  Specifically, if the long awaited infrastructure reform can be passed.  However, fiscal policy with near zero interest rates, which government has promised to keep in place for the near future, will provide a good platform for the economic recovery and allow us to look optimistically into 2021-2022.

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2022-01-22

MHV Production Growth Expected in 2022-2023

Chris Fisher
Chris Fisher

Summary: Global demand for Medium and Heavy Commercial Vehicles (MHV) rebounded in 2021 but overall growth in the segment was flat.  Going forward, we expect the growth to accelerate in 2022 and 2023.   The exceptions to this rebound trend are in China and India, which continue to decline and sharply drive overall global production numbers into negative territory. 

We expect global production volumes in 2022 to gain 3.7% vs 2021, with a positive trend in all regions, except for China, where we expect production volumes to be down -3.6% in 2022 vs 2021.  China experienced a surge in demand during 2020 due to the change in emissions regulations, so 2021 was down significantly, about 20%. 

North America: While supply chain disruptions continue to negatively impact the commercial vehicle market, medium and heavy commercial vehicle production is expected to finish 2021 15.8% higher than 2020.  The forecasted production growth rate is expected to continue to show improvement through 2023 as supply chain disruptions ease and truck capacity in the market begins to align with demand.  The disruption in the supply chain and on-going issues with Covid will continue to impact the market this year.

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Global: Recovery Is Strong, but Uneven

GLOBAL REPORT
Yosyf Sheremeta
Yosyf Sheremeta

SUMMARY.  The global economy performed very well in 2021 and continues to recover, along with trade, employment and incomes. But the revival is unbalanced, with regions/countries, businesses and people facing very different economic realities. Recent improvements also conceal structural changes, which means that some sectors, jobs, and technologies will not return to their pre-pandemic trends. Based on the most recent economic developments and trends, Power Systems Research remains somewhat optimistic about the global recovery.

Many of us hoped to be in the post-Covid phase by now, but it is evident that there is no quick way out.  The pandemic has had a profound impact on the world economy, and it will continue to challenge established norms of life and business into the foreseeable future.  As we start the new year, many challenges remain, new and old alike: re-surgency of COVID variants, restrictions on travel, supply chain challenges, shortages of materials/goods, inflation, and employment, as well as renewed geopolitical tensions across many parts of the globe.

Power Systems Research witnessed a strong economic recovery globally in 2021, despite regional differences.  Output in most OECD countries has now either surpassed or is about to reach pre-pandemic levels, but lower-income economies, particularly those where vaccination rates are low, are at risk of being left behind.  Furthermore, the rebound will continue to vary widely among different market segments.  

Global inflation re-surfaced in 2021 and presents a real risk to economic recovery in all regions. The renewed inflationary pressure risks lasting longer than was expected a few months ago.  The surge in retail and wholesale energy costs in late 2021 will undermine economic growth prospects for large parts of Europe and Northeast Asia well into 2022.  Rising food and energy prices already have impact on low-income households in particular. 

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2020-02-04

Near Term Recession Fears Recede in North America

SUMMARY.  The North American economy remained stable in 2019 and pure economic conditions as well as fundamentals in the region were favorable. Most industries performed very well, and the short-term outlook remains stable to flat for most market segments. However, we see many new developments that could suggest a shift in the trend.

Yosyf Sheremeta
Yosyf Sheremeta

Consumer confidence declined slightly in December, following a moderate increase in November.  The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index stood at 126.5 in December, 1.4 points higher than in September 2019. 

Per Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board: “While consumers’ assessment of current conditions improved, their expectations declined, driven primarily by a softening in their short-term outlook regarding jobs and financial prospects. While the economy hasn’t shown signs of further weakening, there is little to suggest that growth, and in particular consumer spending, will gain momentum in early 2020.”

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