Search Results for: agricultural-test-0
We Expect 2020 NA Overall OEM Production To Be Flat
This article initially appeared in the February 2020 issue of PowerTALK News.
SUMMARY. The North American economy remained stable in 2019 and pure economic conditions as well as fundamentals in the region were favorable. Most industries performed very well, and the short-term outlook remains stable to flat for most market segments. However, we see many new developments that could suggest a shift in the trend.
Consumer confidence declined slightly in December, following a moderate increase in November. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index stood at 126.5 in December, 1.4 points higher than in September 2019.
Per Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board: “While consumers’ assessment of current conditions improved, their expectations declined, driven primarily by a softening in their short-term outlook regarding jobs and financial prospects. While the economy hasn’t shown signs of further weakening, there is little to suggest that growth, and in particular consumer spending, will gain momentum in early 2020.”
COVID-19 2020 North American Impact: Ag, -12%, Construction, -14%
HDMA-PSR COVID Webinar Presentation
COVID-19 continues to batter production of off-highway equipment as we continue to move through 2020. The effects of the virus on Agricultural and Construction equipment production in North America were analyzed in a June 17 webinar presented by the Heavy Duty Manufacturers Association (HDMA) and Power Systems Research (PSR). The webinar updated information presented in PSR’s webinar in April.
The PSR webinar team was Jim Downey, PSR vice president-global data products , and Yosyf Sherementa, PhD, PSR director-product management and customer experience.
PSR projects AG to be down 9.4% and CN to be down 11.3% when comparing global production for this year (2020) to last year (2019).
China and India which have the largest volumes for ag machinery are the lower side for production percentage drops this year. China which is also the largest producer of construction equipment is not expecting a decline this year.
A slight recovery for Construction equipment is expected in 2021, but not until 2022 for Agricultural machinery. Ag sector recovery will ultimately depend on overall economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic.
The construction segment will not return to pre-virus production volumes for another few years, at best. We’re looking out to 2024 or possibly 2025 to get back to 1.48 million units.
We don’t see a V-shaped type scenario on the horizon in North America, but rather recovery will look like something between a “U” and an “L.” Somewhat of a swoosh shape or upward sloping L. Economic activity will slowly return to a sense of normalcy as the curve of new COVID-19 cases flattens.
Government support and intervention will be needed, and stimulus will provide an economic backstop. We expect modest growth in 2021. Pent-up demand and continued economic stimulus should also help with rebound.
Global Recovery: Opportunities and Challenges
SUMMARY. The global economy, especially within the Engine, OEM and Components industries, has felt the immediate impact from COVID: assembly line shutdowns, labor issues, supply chain issues, logistics and transportation to name a few. The pandemic has exposed many weak links in the global economic chain. However, by end of summer, most of these challenges were either completely resolved or temporary solutions had been put in place.
Diversification has become the theme during the pandemic recovery, and we expect this trend to continue. Not only are companies looking for new markets and suppliers to grow top and bottom line revenue as well as to minimize risks, but we see a shift into new industries. Furthermore, rapid developments of new technologies create massive opportunities for OEMs and suppliers as well as posing real threats to OEMs that solely rely on traditional products that are powered by fossil fuels.
North American Economic Outlook – April 2021
In this episode of PSR PowerTALK, Yosyf Sheremeta, PhD, Dir. of Prod. Mgt. & Customer Experience, discusses why the North American economy could post record growth of more than 6% in 2021.
Transcript
Welcome to the PSR PowerTALK podcast, produced by Power Systems Research.
00:06 Joe Delmont:
From Power systems Research I’m Joe Delmont, editor of PSR PowerTALK.
Today, we’ll discuss the economic outlook for North America. This forecast has been developed by Yosyf Sheremeta, Director of Product Management and Customer Experience at Power Systems Research. Yosyf provides our clients with economic and production forecasts each quarter. Thanks for joining us today Yosyf.
Fabio discusses YTD Ag Equipment Outlook 2021
Fabio Ferraresi directs PSR new business development efforts in South America. Today, he discusses the outlook for Ag Equipment Production in Brazil. Production in the first quarter of 2021 was the best since 2013 and he sees annual growth of about 25% moving forward.
Transcript
Welcome to the PSR PowerTALK podcast, produced by Power Systems Research.
00:06 Joe Delmont:
From Power Systems Research I’m Joe Delmont, editor of PSR PowerTALK. Today we’re talking with Fabio Ferraresi about the outlook for ag equipment production in Brazil.
2021 Global Economic Outlook
Yosyf Sheremeta, PhD, Director of Product Management and Customer Experience, analyzes the Global economic outlook by region and industry segment.
Transcript
Welcome to the PSR PowerTALK podcast, produced by Power Systems Research.
00:06 Joe Delmont
From Power Systems Research I’m Joe Delmont, an editor of PSR PowerTALK.
Today we’ll talk with Yosyf Sheremeta about his global economic outlook. Yosyf is Director of Product Management and Customer Experience for Power Systems Research.
Fabio Discusses Electrification of MHV
Today, Fabio Fabio Ferraresi, Director of Business Development in South America, discusses Brazil MH vehicle production and trends in MHV propulsion and powertrains.
Transcript
Welcome to the PSR PowerTALK podcast produced by Power Systems Research.
00:06 Joe Delmont
From Power Systems Research I’m Joe Delmont, editor of PSR PowerTALK. Today we’ll talk with Fabio Ferraresi about transportation trends in Brazil, especially as they apply to medium and heavy vehicles. We’ll discuss 2021 Brazil production forecasts, and we’ll also look at trends in propulsion and powertrains for medium and heavy vehicles.
Brazil Government Announces US$ 65 Billion Agriculture Funding Plan
The Brazil government announced June 29 the new Safra Plan for 2022/2023 with a total of R$ 340 Billion (US$ 65 Bi) to fund business related to Agriculture, including Agricultural Machines and Trucks for product transportation. The amount is 36% higher than the previous year plan.
Source: Automotive Business Read The Article
PSR Analysis: While the volume of funds is higher, the interest rates are also higher. In addition, the prices of agricultural supplies are higher than in the previous cycle. Agricultural Machines should maintain its high production and sales trend while Trucks should grow due to pre-buy caused by Proconve P8 (Equivalent to Euro 6) by January 2023. PSR
Q2 2023 Economic Update Is Mostly Positive
GLOBAL REPORT
SUMMARY. There are several factors that could contribute to modest growth in the second half of this year as we await final numbers for the quarter. This should lead to total production globally growing at +2.6% in 2023 (vs 2022). Given this 2023 growth, the outlook for the years into 2028 remains positive.
Apart from Russia and Ukraine, the main country to show a decline is South Korea, while Japan is barely positive. However, the segment picture shows some differences.
- Fuel prices have eased recently, but they remain a serious concern.
- Supply chains remain constrained.
- The war in Ukraine shows no sign of a speedy conclusion, despite recent successes by Ukraine.
- Ukrainian exports of wheat, other grains and fertilizer continue but are still low compared to pre-war levels.
- Inflation continues to be a concern and central banks are raising their interest rates. This will pose a risk to economic growth in all regions. Inflation and price increases are putting OEMs in a tricky situation.
- Risk of recession appears in several countries including the USA and Germany.
- Covid is still lingering with global deaths now at over 6.9 million, but the death rate has slowed considerably.
- Latent demand for machinery keeps bursting out into the open.
