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Trucking News: Ask the Expert
The Current Status of Electric Commercial Vehicles
During the past decade, PSR has followed the progress of alternative fuels and technologies such as gas and diesel hybrid, natural gas, and electric along with other renewable fuels. To date, alternative fuels have been relegated to more niche segments and have not penetrated the larger end of the market.
Chris Fisher Segments such as transit and school buses along with short distance segments like refuse have been the primary adopters of natural gas since they tend to be close to their terminals for refueling and recharging. The bus market along with pickup and delivery trucks are the target segments for electric vehicles in the near term.
Late last year, Amazon placed an order for 100,000 light commercial “Prime” vans from Rivian that will likely be the beta test for the viability of light electric commercial vehicles. These vehicles are expected to begin deliveries next year.
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On-Highway Batteries Serve as Emergency Backup Power
Audi and the utility EnBW are pioneering an energy storage facility built on retired electric vehicle (EV) batteries. This partnership is being billed as the solution to a major problem in each industry.
Tyler Wiegert For automobile manufacturers, the question of how to recycle retired batteries has been pressing for some time. Utilities have been struggling with the perverse problem that excess generation from renewable sources has been slowing adoption, as surges from those sources can disrupt the stability of power grids.
EV batteries have a functional life of 3-10 years after they are retired from vehicle use, making them a ready tool for use by utilities.
Portland General Electric Company (PGE) also is seeking to create a more resilient grid for the utilization of renewable energy sources. They are launching a pilot program to incentivize the installation of home battery systems to act as a virtual power plant.
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Daimler Pursues Fuel Cells on Multiple Fronts
In a statement released June 30, Daimler announced it will be investing “a very substantial sum” in achieving a CO2-neutral future for the transportation sector. Hydrogen fuel cell production facilities are currently in development, with an eye toward mass production of fuel cells and their component parts.
Tyler Wiegert Some of the hurdles Daimler is working to overcome are the needs for highly-filtered air and stable ambient temperature and humidity. The materials and components used in fuel cell production do not allow for an easy transfer in process from conventional engine manufacturing.
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MotorIndia Sponsors Commercial Vehicle Webinar
MotorIndia Magazine, one of India’s leading publications devoted to commercial vehicles, recently held an important panel discussion on the state of the country’s CV industry.
Jinal Shah The live webinar panel discussion June 3, 2020, was moderated by Jinal Shah, Regional Director-South Asia, for Power Systems Research.
Shah began with a market prediction of a 45-50% drop in CV sales in 2020 over 2019 figures, necessarily taking the industry back by a decade in terms…
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Kamaz Introduces First Mining Truck
KAMAZ says it has developed and built KAMAZ 65805 – first truck in its new mining truck portfolio. The product line will consist of dump trucks with wheel formula 8*4 and 10*6 and cargo capacity from 45 to 70 tons. The dimensions of the new truck will allow driving on regular automobile roads.
The new KAMAZ is powered by a 12-liter inline KAMAZ R-6 engine of 500 hp, and hydromechanical transmission with retarder.
The truck is introduced as “Autonomous ready,” and can be converted to a driverless vehicle by installing sensors and a decision-making chip.
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Autotor Plant To Suspend Assembly of BMW Cars
Autotor’s Kaliningrad plant plans to suspend assembly of BMW cars from the middle of June to the beginning of July because of a components shortage. This is told by CEO of the plant Ruslan Sadykov.
Stephen Teichert, head of BMW Russia, claims Autotor production capacity has been reduced by about 70%; however, in July the OEM plans to increase production to pre-COVID-19 level. Read The Article
PSR Analysis: The Autotor plant in Russia assembles passenger cars kits for BMW, Hyundai…
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Construction Machinery Sales Could Fall 18%
The market for construction machinery showed good results in Q1 2020, following ruble devaluation and the construction of hospitals. However, it began to decline in April, and the Association of European Business (AEB) expects an 18% decline for 2020 instead of the small growth forecasted earlier.
Maxim Sakov The most significant sales decline is expected for excavators, loaders and dump trucks. Only crawler tractors can avoid decrease, however, it’s still 32.6% worse than pre-crisis expectation.
Experts note that the largest decline is likely to be in more expensive applications, or where existing fleets have larger reserves. In cases where there are no support measures, the decline could be as much as 50% or more.
However, one positive signal is that there are no plans to reduce road construction projects.
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Small Signs of Recovery in Japan’s Domestic Motorcycle Market
Akihiro Komuro While car sales have been hit hard by the Coronavirus disaster, there are small signs of a recovery in the Japanese domestic motorcycle market. According to the Japan Mini Vehicle Association, new motorcycle sales in April 2020 (125 to 250cc) were up 2.0% YOY to 7,772 units.
This is the fourth consecutive month of YOY growth. Some observers believe this is a rebound from the decline following the October 2019 sales tax hike. This growth also is partly due to the growing need by commuters to use motorcycles as an alternative to public transportation to avoid coronavirus.
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COVID-19 2020 North American Impact: Ag, -12%, Construction, -14%
HDMA-PSR COVID Webinar Presentation
COVID-19 continues to batter production of off-highway equipment as we continue to move through 2020. The effects of the virus on Agricultural and Construction equipment production in North America were analyzed in a June 17 webinar presented by the Heavy Duty Manufacturers Association (HDMA) and Power Systems Research (PSR). The webinar updated information presented in PSR’s webinar in April.
Jim Downey The PSR webinar team was Jim Downey, PSR vice president-global data products , and Yosyf Sherementa, PhD, PSR director-product management and customer experience.
PSR projects AG to be down 9.4% and CN to be down 11.3% when comparing global production for this year (2020) to last year (2019).
China and India which have the largest volumes for ag machinery are the lower side for production percentage drops this year. China which is also the largest producer of construction equipment is not expecting a decline this year.
Yosyf Sheremeta A slight recovery for Construction equipment is expected in 2021, but not until 2022 for Agricultural machinery. Ag sector recovery will ultimately depend on overall economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic.
The construction segment will not return to pre-virus production volumes for another few years, at best. We’re looking out to 2024 or possibly 2025 to get back to 1.48 million units.
We don’t see a V-shaped type scenario on the horizon in North America, but rather recovery will look like something between a “U” and an “L.” Somewhat of a swoosh shape or upward sloping L. Economic activity will slowly return to a sense of normalcy as the curve of new COVID-19 cases flattens.
Government support and intervention will be needed, and stimulus will provide an economic backstop. We expect modest growth in 2021. Pent-up demand and continued economic stimulus should also help with rebound.
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Thoughts on Battery Change for New Energy Vehicle, using Big Data
Qin Fen The symposium of battery change mode for new energy vehicle was held June 15 in Xuzhou, Jiangsu. Data from National Big Data Alliance of New Energy Vehicles suggests that over 3 million new energy vehicles were in the system in 2019 and 900,000 vehicles are running daily. Data also suggest that new energy vehicle GVW range primarily falls under 4.5 tons.
Source: Sohu Read The Article
PSR Analysis: Many numbers are in the article, some contradictory. As one of the truck…
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