Subsidy Program for Scrapping Diesel Vehicles Ineffective

News: Industry Segments

2021-10-24

Subsidy Program for Scrapping Diesel Vehicles Ineffective

FAR EAST: SOUTH KOREA REPORT

About half of those who received South Korean government aid to scrap their old diesel vehicles early have purchased diesel vehicles again, according to a new study. The government spent 845.4 billion won (about 79.6 billion yen) in the last five years (2016-2020) to scrap 959,000 aging diesel vehicles, but the number of all diesel vehicles increased by 9% during the same period. The government has pointed out that diesel vehicles are the main culprit of particulate matter such as PM2.5 and has implemented a policy to “eliminate” them, but this policy has not been effective.

There is subsidy support if old diesel cars are scrapped depending on the level of emissions in operation. In addition, there are additional subsidies if you buy an eco-car or a gasoline/LPG car.

If old diesel vehicles with a gross weight of less than 3.5 tons are scrapped early, they can receive up to 6 million won (about 570,000 yen) in subsidies. According to data from the Ministry of the Environment, 48,757 people in the Seoul metropolitan area purchased new cars in the first half of last year after receiving subsidies to scrap their old diesel vehicles. However, of the cars purchased by these people, 21,686 (44%) were diesel vehicles. Moreover, 15,990 of them were used diesel cars, 2.8 times more than the number of new cars (5,696).

Source: Chosun Online

PSR Analysis: It is hard to say that this is a flaw in the system, but the reality is that this system has not achieved its purpose and has produced the opposite effect. The reason for this situation is simple: many of the users of trucks under 3.5 tons are small businesses, and considering their expenses, they do not choose gasoline vehicles, and new vehicles are not an option, so they choose used diesel vehicles.

EVs and fuel cell vehicles, which are now being widely reported, are attracting attention as vehicles equipped with next-generation technologies. However, especially in the case of commercial vehicles, the high initial cost is frowned upon. The market should take another look at the fact that inexpensive vehicles that can easily demonstrate their contribution to business will be selected. PSR

Akihiro Komuro is Research Analyst, Far East and Southeast Asia, for Power Systems Research

2021-10-23

Almaz-Antey Group To Develop Car Powered by Hydrogen Cells

Maxim Sakov
Maxim Sakov

This OEM is developing a passenger car dubbed E-NEVA which will use hydrogen as a fuel.

Almaz-Antey is a group of 60 enterprises, specializing in air defense weapons. With this current effort, OEM is making civilian products based on the developments from the military industry. In August, the concern introduced a self-propelled electric chassis that could be used  to create passenger cars on the basic chassis. The chassis includes two electric motors and a set of batteries of 90 kWt/hrs, providing up to 400 km on a single charge.

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Russian Car Sales in September Drop 22.6%

Sales on new passenger cars and LCVs in September 2021 declined 22.6%, according to the Association of European Businesses (AEB). In total, automotive salons and dealers have sold 119,4 000 cars, which is 34,9 vehicles less than in 2020 September.

According to AEB head Tomas Schterzel, “negative trend is going on” (in August the sales dropped 17%), although the totals for the first nine months of 2021 are showing 15.1% growth versus the same period in 2020. The shortage of vehicles on the market is connected to decreased production and the deficit of semiconductors. The energy crisis in China and UK, growing prices of raw materials and other problems will support negative trend in the market during the near term.

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PSR Analysis: The problem here is not only in components deficit, but primarily in the car prices going up and the consumer’s incomes going down. So, the negative trend will develop further. PSR

Maxim Sakov is Market Consultant – Russia Operations, for Power Systems Research

KAMAZ Increases Nine-Month Production 21%

KAMAZ has significantly increased production for the first nine months of 2021 versus the same period last year. Through September, the OEM produced 30,979 vehicles, up  21% from the same period in 2020, reports the company.

In September, KAMAZ made 4,067 vehicles (versus 3,676 vehicles in September 2020.

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PSR Analysis: KAMAZ has found ways to resolve the problem with components (mostly by offering simpler models), working with pent-up demand and increasing its market share.

Maxim Sakov is Market Consultant – Russia Operations, for Power Systems Research

Personal Mobility Segment Lacks Sparkle, Stocks, Demand Drop

Aditya Kondejkar

Passenger vehicles sales dropped 41% to around 160k units in September as the shortage of semi-conductors disrupted production at most of the OEMs. OEMs are facing supply shortages rather than demand problems. We are seeing robust customer demand as increasing preferences towards personal mobility increase.

2-wheel sales declined 17% to 1.5 million units in September. The Motorcycle segment is heavily impacted as sales is dropped 23% in September. Owing to high vehicle acquisition costs and high fuel prices, inquiries regarding new vehicles have dropped significantly compared with last years’ level.

“Indian automobile industry continues to face new challenges, said Kenichi Ayukawa, President, SIAM. “While on one hand, we are seeing a revival in vehicle demand, on the other hand, shortage of semi-conductor chips is causing a major concern for the industry. Many members have curtailed their production plans.”

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PSR Analysis: So, we believe the on road segments have witnessed a V-shaped recovery since the second wave of COVID-19 and won’t see a regular festive season spike for this year.   PSR

Aditya Kondejkar is Research Analyst – South Asia Operations, for Power Systems Research

Brazil Motorcycle In-Service Population Grows

Fabio Ferraresi
Fabio Ferraresi

During the pandemic, the number of motorcycles in Brazil grew with the demand for delivery and e-commerce and boosted other business, from clothes for motorcyclists to spare parts.

Source: M&T     Read  The Article

PSR Analysis: The effect is seen not only because of the incremental sales and consequent in-service population increase, but because of the profile of utilization that changed. Motorcycles in Brazil are used for last mile delivery and delivery in urban centers, because of the low cost of acquisition and the low cost of operation, flexibility, and agility in traffic. The pandemic accelerated some changes in e-commerce and food delivery and created some demands above the standards already in place. It’s time for many to analyze and grab opportunities that sudden changes bring.   PSR

By Fabio Ferraresi is Director, Business Development ,South America, for Power Systems Research

Volkswagen Truck and Bus and CBMM To Develop Niobium Battery for EV

Volkswagen Truck and Bus, part of the Traton Group, and CBMM, a Brazilian giant of niobium mining, announced an agreement to develop batteries with Niobium for Electric Vehicles. It promises to recharge a Truck Battery in less than 10 minutes and provide a traveling higher range. Volkswagen will start tests in 2022 to develop a functional vehicle with Niobium batteries by the end of 2022.

Source: Revista Oeste     Read The Article

PSR Analysis: Primarily used to improve the strength of high grade steels, Niobium is also used for super conductors and has been tested by CBMM and Toshiba in batteries for three years with positive results. The solution applied for MHV may put Brazil in a strong position in MHV EV segment, since 97% of the Niobium reserves in the world are in Brazil.

Fabio Ferraresi is Director Business Development , South America, for Power Systems Research

Komatsu To Expand Autonomous Truck Operation in Brazil

In line with global trends of automatization, Komatsu is expanding its autonomous Truck operation in Brazil. It already has six trucks operating in the mining complex of Carajás (PA) and other four trucks will be introduced this year. Komatsu says the autonomous driving technology brings 40% savings on tires and brakes, 13% on overall maintenance and 15% on productivity, considering the elimination of stops for driver changing and rest.

Source: M&T    Read The Article

PSR Analysis: Carajás is the biggest mining complex in the world. It makes sense that the leading edge of the technology is being used here. These trucks are a reality, and they will progressively replace trucks driven by people in the next few years in mining complexes such as Carajas and other big ones in Brazil and South America. PSR

Fabio Ferraresi is Director, Business Development, South America, for Power Systems Research

Q3 2021 Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) Falls 10.7%

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St. Paul, MN — The Power Systems Research Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) dropped from 131 to 117, or 10.7%, for the three-month period ended Sept. 30, 2021, from Q2 2021. The year-over-year (Q3 2020 to Q3 2021) loss for the PSR-TPI was 141 to 117, or 17%.

Except for China, all regions are expected to experience solid commercial vehicle demand growth this year and into 2022.  Chinese heavy truck demand is expected to decline this year primarily due to the implementation of the China VI emission regulations that adds cost to the vehicles but no significant improvement in fuel economy.

The PSR-TPI measures truck production globally and across six regions: North America, China, Europe, South America, Japan & Korea and Emerging Markets.

This data comes from OE Link™, the proprietary database maintained by Power Systems Research. PSR

Jim Downey is Vice President-Global Data Products, and Chris Fisher is Senior Commercial Vehicle Analyst at Power Systems Research.

2021-10-03

Second Wave of COVID-19 Hits India Commercial Vehicle Market

Motorindia-May_2021Download
Aditya Kondejkar

The second wave of COVID-19 has put the brakes on a rebound in India’s commercial vehicle market, reports Aditya Kondejkar, Power Systems Research Analyst for South Asia Operations, in the May 2021 issue of Motorindia magazine.

Kondejkar notes that the second wave of the pandemic has caused shortages of semiconductors and steel as well as weaker consumer demand. These forces have pushed commercial vehicle production down nearly 60% month-on-month (MoM) in April.

Kondejkar points out that the India CV market witnessed a strong performance in 2018 with more than 1.13 million
units produced, owing in large part to GST implementation and replacement demand. In 2019, however, the Indian CV market began shrinking as it faced headwinds from revised axle load norms, vehicle over-capacity, BS-VI transition, and a liquidity crunch.

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