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PSR Analysis: Record harvest and high commodities prices enable farmers to invest in Agricultural Machines. This situation supports and sustains our production forecast for the year. PSR
By Fabio Ferraresi, Director Business Development South America
Three OEMs have announced new fuel efficient products.
Scania has announced an 8% fuel consumption improvement with Super 13 liters engines and promises 50% maintenance stops reduction. Volvo has announced a new Euro VI line with Volvo Engine produced in Brazil, replacing MWM on the VM platform. VW fuel consumption improvement is in the 5% range and the company reports 4,000 units Euro VI sold in 2022 already.
GM has added a third shift at its plant in Joinville, SC, Brazil, to increase production capacity and supply engines for the Montana, the new Light Pickup below the S10 size. The capacity production increase forecast is 30%.
PSR Analysis: Thenew GM Montana pickup is aimed to complete with the Fiat Toro and Fiat Strada, and grab market share from the leaders. GM also expects to export engines, if the shortage of semiconductors can be solved, which will allow the plant to reach the desired production levels. PSR
Fabio Ferraresi is Director-Business Development, South America, for Power Systems Research
TheM&T Expo 2022 is one of the most important trade fairs in the construction and mining equipment industry throughout Latin America and this year the show featured more than 600 exhibiting brands in 54,000 square meters. Held in Sao Paulo Aug. 30-Sept. 2, 2022, the event had more than 30,000 visits in four days.
Disagreements between show organizers and exhibitors caused key players in the market to avoid the show. The list of missing exhibitors included Caterpillar, John Deere, Komatsu, JCB, CNH, and Volvo. Chinese companies, as well as Liebherr, took this opportunity to use large spaces at the event, both in area and in product portfolio with respective sales and engineering teams.
Formerly using chassis built by other companies, mainly BYD, Marcopolo has announced plans to build its own EV chassis. It plans to produce and offer a complete set of bus chassis and bus body. It plans to deliver of 30 units in different setups for Brazilian cities in 2023.
PSR Analysis: Marcopolo is betting that its own chassis is more competitive for the market from an engineering and product standpoint. While preparing to compete with its chassis suppliers and partners in the EV segment, it still depends on them for the main volume of transit and intercity buses that is ICE powered. PSR
Fabio Ferraresi is Director Business Development-South Americafor Power Systems Research
During the Lat.Bus show in São Paulo, the Sales Director of Mercedes, Walter Barbosa, affirmed the demand of 500 EV Bus in 2022 and 500 in 2023, but he expect no deliveries in 2022 and all delivered in 2023.
PSR Analysis: Mercedes is running against the clock to win the business in São Paulo. Although it is preferred by the public transportation companies, BYD is ahead with product already developed. Marcopolo shows as a solution with own chassis and body, but still in early stages of launch. PSR
Fabio Ferraresi is Director Business Development-South Americafor Power Systems Research
Volvo’s EV bus is now in the homologation phase in Brazil. Initially it will be produced in Sweden, with plans to be produced in Brazil for the South America market. The Curitiba plant engineering has participated significantly in the Bus Development.
PSR Analysis: Volvo adapt its line-up to compete in the Brazil and South America market that will demand significant part of the volume for the EV models. It is slightly behind Mercedes and Marcopolo with its own bus, but still able to catch-up and compete in main markets. PSR
Fabio Ferraresi is Director Business Development-South Americafor Power Systems Research
July registrations of implements (trailer and over-chassis) reached 13,133 units, above the January to May average of 12,500 units. ANFIR (National Association of Road Implement Manufacturers) forecast is to reach 165,000 unit registrations, slightly above the 163,000 registered last year.
PSR Analysis: The trailers and over-chassis implement supply chain has fewer constraints than the Truck supply chain. While the market is influenced by the same drivers, the atypical stops due to shortage of components make the Trailer market an indicator of the Truck Market without the constraints. The positive outlook either in terms of actual sales and the forecast made by the OEM reinforces the forecast of a strong MHV production and sales numbers for the second half of 2022. PSR
Fabio Ferraresi is Director Business Development-South Americafor Power Systems Research
The Brazil government announced June 29 the new Safra Plan for 2022/2023 with a total of R$ 340 Billion (US$ 65 Bi) to fund business related to Agriculture, including Agricultural Machines and Trucks for product transportation. The amount is 36% higher than the previous year plan.
PSR Analysis: While the volume of funds is higher, the interest rates are also higher. In addition, the prices of agricultural supplies are higher than in the previous cycle. Agricultural Machines should maintain its high production and sales trend while Trucks should grow due to pre-buy caused by Proconve P8 (Equivalent to Euro 6) by January 2023.PSR
Despite high demand, Mercedes announced its fourth temporary production stop at the plant in São Bernardo do Campo-SP, from July 4-15. In the announcement, Mercedes mentions the shortage of components and its effort to work with the supply chain to meet commitments with customers.
PSR Analysis. The shortage of components, particularly semiconductors, is taking longer than expected and is affecting the MHV market more than expected. It may affect market projections if the supply chains do not recover 2H 2022. PSR
Fabio Ferraresi is Director, Business Development-South America, for Power Systems Research
