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The Brazil Government has published a law starting the Truck and Buses Scrappage Policy, aiming to renew fleets, increase productivity and efficiency, reduce emissions and improve safety. Depending on the effectiveness of the program, it may affect the MHV market. See complete article translated in our webpage and the original from Automotive Business.
PSR Analysis: The launch of the Renovar program is a positive sign on the path of improving safety, logistics efficiency and environmental impact for Brazil, with genuine and relevant objectives.
Because it is a voluntary program, operating in phases, with regulations and parameters yet to be defined, it is too early to project the effectiveness and impact on the vehicle market.
We believe that Brazil still needs broader legislation for a long-term program with a gradual and geographically differentiated process to restrict the movement of older, less safe trucks and buses with lower efficiency and higher emission levels. Fleet owners, autonomous carriers, OEMs and the entire production chain need predictability for long-term planning to prepare for and assure feasibility for a broad and scheduled fleet renewal. PSR
By Fabio Ferraresi, Director Business Development South America, for Power Systems Research
The Transaction involving the Brazilian Tupy and the subsidiary of Traton Group is around US$ 186 Million and it is approximately four times the 2021 EBITDA of MWM, with revenue of US$ 580 million.
PSR Analysis: Tupy has been demonstrating its willingness to invest in engine research and development for cleaner propulsion and alternative ICE propulsion with Hydrogen and other alternative Fuels. With the knowhow and facilities of MWM added to Tupy, the outlook is positive for growth in new technology and better product offerings for customers and ultimately higher volumes for the new Tupy–MWM company. PSR
By Fabio Ferraresi, Director Business Development South America, for Power Systems Research
VWCO will increase the offer of homologated chargers and now it can be charged in more than 10 different wall boxes. In addition to the new chargers, VW is starting the sale effort in Colombia in agreement with Porsche Colombia, with versions of 11 and 14 tons.
PSR Analysis: Colombia is a market with high acceptance for EV and alternative propulsion and sales of this vehicle should grow fast. Total cost of ownership is still an issue for this product in Brazil, but many companies are investing in these products to associate the green and environmental appeal to its brands. PSR
Fabio Ferraresi is Director Business Development South America, for Power Systems Research
The São Paulo Government has announced the start of a BRT line, going through cities surrounding the São Paulo capital city with plans to be operating in 2023. This line has 17 km of extension and will use 82 Battery Electric Articulated 23 meter buses.
PSR Analysis: The cities surrounding São Paulo Capital have started deploying the initiatives of the main city, as expected. São Paulo City has a more aggressive plan for using BE Buses with 800 for 2022 and the average of 1600 per year from 2023 to 2032. PSR
Fabio Ferraresi is Director Business Development South America, for Power Systems Research
Taxes on Industrialized Products (IPI) will be reduced by 25% for most of industrialized goods, in a Governmental effort to boost Industry production. The total impact in federal revenue will be US$ 5 billion in 2022.
PSR Analysis: This should affect positively sales and profitability in all engine powered segments. However, profitability should be more impacted than volume. Construction Equipment should have the higher impact as well as spare parts. PSR
Fabio Ferraresi is Director Business Development-South America, for Power Systems Research
The program called Low Carbon FINAME is dedicated to the acquisition of new machines that contribute to carbon emission reduction, with a focus on EV Buses, EV Trucks and Off-Highway Machines electric and Hybrid. OEMs have to register their products before December 2024 to access lower interest rates.
PSR Analysis: The incentives for funding are an important driver to make an EV competitive when compared to an ICE in Brazil, a country with high interest rates and high cost of capital. Historically, lower interest rates caused high sales and bubbles in key segments as CE and MHV. We are closely monitoring the funding conditions and the impact it will bring to key market segments. PSR
Fabio Ferraresi is Director, Business Development-South America, for Power Systems
The 13 liters with Scania Twin SCR aftertreatment developed in Sweden is tested in Brazil for the new Proconve P8 products, already in place for new models and mandatory for all models by January 2023. The homologation process at IBAMA is already advanced but may show adaption needs to Brazilian environment. This engine is part of a completely new powertrain and brakes system with higher efficiency and lower emission. The power range vary from 420 to 560 hp and it is prepared for HVO use.
PSR Analysis: The use of edge technology at Scania Trucks in Brazil is in line with the amount of exports Scania makes to Europe and to lower emission regions. The higher efficiency will bring increased sales to South America as fleet owners seek lower fuel consumption. PSR
Fabio Ferraresi is Director, Business Development-South America, for Power Systems Research
Eve Urban Air Mobility, the branch of aircraft giant Embraer, says it has started the process to register its eVTOL, Electric Vertical Take Off and Landing, vehicle at ANAC, the Brazilian bureau for aircraft certification and tied to international bureaus. Getting this documentation is the most important step for starting its commercial operation programmed for 2026. With this certification Eve will meet international standards of air navigation and safety.
PSR Analysis: Although the aircraft business is not exactly at the scope of products we currently cover, this launch will impact the mobility industry and we are monitoring it closely. Eve has already set 17 partnerships and has a booking of 1700 units, more than many EV makers making a lot of noise in the industry and media. PSR
Fabio Ferraresi is Director, Business Development South America, for Power Systems Research
During the last week of 2021 and the first week of 2022, grain crops faced unfavorable weather conditions. At Mato Grosso and Paraná Regions the lack of rain has been the big problem, while in states like Tocantins and Bahia the problem is an excess of rain, influenced by the climatic phenomenon called La Niña. In some states , such as Paraná, the harvest forecasts are 40% lower than the initial forecast and the losses are estimated at US$ 5 Billion in Paraná.
PSR Analysis: The loss in Agribusiness affects farm cash flow directly and farmer’s ability to invest in Ag Equipment. Moreover, the mood of farmers could be negatively impacted in a year with new waves of COVID 19 and with political instability due to elections. Ag equipment forecasting in 2022 may be challenging and sales results may surprise OEMs, many who expect double digit growth. PSR
Fabio Ferraresi is Director, Business Development South America, for Power Systems Research
The Brazil trailer industry registered 163,000 new license plates in 2021 vs. 122,000 in 2020, growing 33.5%. The result could have been even better since the segment was affected by a lack of components, such as steel, tires, etc. Export sales climbed to 4,600 units vs. 2,100 units in 2021.
PSR Analysis: The growth is in line with truck sales that confirm the health of the transportation industry. The growth of exports confirms the recovery of key markets of Trailers and MHV.
Fabio Ferraresi is Director Business Development-South AmericaforPowerSystems Research
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