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Trucking Recovery To Be Driven by Supply Side?
Chris Fisher The signs of a freight recovery that appeared early this year are gone, replaced by a tough market where recovery will have to come from a supply-side correction, American Trucking Associations’ Chief Economist Bob Costello said at ATA’s 2025 Management Conference & Exhibition in San Diego.
Costello delivered a blunt and sobering economic warning: new tariffs, persistent stagflation, and a slowing labor market have created “absolutely unsustainable” conditions for many carriers, and the only way out, at least near-term, is to erase capacity from the highway.
“It’s not easy to talk about because it’s people’s livelihoods, but it’s a necessary evil,” Costello said, noting that freight demand is unlikely to improve anytime soon. “This has got to be a supply-driven change in the market.”
The current 18% effective tariff rate, nearly six times higher than it was during the first Trump administration, is a level not seen since the 1930s. Costello warned that the industry is only in the “bottom of the second or top of the third inning” of feeling the impact. “Any benefits of putting tariffs on foreign goods… are years in the future, but the cost hits much quicker,” he said.
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Q3 2025 Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) falls -8.5%
St. Paul, MN (Oct. 13, 2025)— The Power Systems Research Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) decreased from 117 to 107, or -8.5%, for the three-month period ending Sept. 30, 2025, from Q2 2025. The year-over-year (Q3 2024 to Q3 2025) loss for the PSR-TPI was, 109 to 107, or -1.8%.
The PSR-TPI measures truck production globally and across six regions: North America, China, Europe, South America, Japan & Korea and Emerging Markets.
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Truck Demand Expected To Remain Soft into 2026
Chris Fisher How things have changed. Less than a year ago the industry was gearing up for a huge 2026 class 8 truck pre-buy ahead of the phase 3 GHG emission regulations that would add significant cost to the price of a truck. Road freight was expected to rebound after the post covid freight recession, and the heavy truck replacement cycle was expected to begin. OEMs filled dealer lots in anticipation of strong demand starting in early to mid-2025 and lasting through all of 2026.
As a result of very strong freight shipments and supply chain disruptions during the Covid era, fleets were purchasing as many trucks as possible which resulted in very high truck sales from 2022 – 2024. This resulted in truck overcapacity within the market.
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EPA Plans To Drop Phase 3 Emission Regulations
Chris Fisher In July, the Trump administration proposed a draft rule rolling back the Greenhouse Gas Phase 3 rule, among the last of – if not the biggest – looming Biden-era emissions regulations facing the trucking industry.
The proposal was announced jointly with Environmental Protection Agency Administrator (EPA) Lee Zeldin’s call to revoke the Endangerment Finding that has allowed presidential administrations to regulate greenhouse gases since 2009.
The repeal of greenhouse gas regulations is a long road that includes a lengthy rulemaking process and likely numerous legal challenges.
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2025 Heavy Truck Production Expected To Decline
In 2025, Medium and heavy commercial vehicle production in South America, Greater China, South Asia and Japan/Korea is expected to increase while European and North American production is expected to decline somewhat significantly this year over 2024.
Global Index. Globally, medium and heavy commercial vehicle production is expected to decline by 1.9% this year over 2024. A moderate softening of the global economy along with negative impacts from increased tariffs has placed pressure on vehicle demand this year.
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2025 Russia Heavy Truck Sales Expected to Decline
Chris Fisher MOSCOW—(TASS) Sales of heavy trucks in Russia in 2025 may decline by 23% year-on-year to 85,000 units, Mikhail Matasov, Deputy General Director of the Russian truck producer Kamaz, told reporters. “The market will be poor in 2025. We currently estimate it at 85,000 units against 110,000 this year. We think that 85,000 is even optimistic,” he said.
Matasov noted that the decline in sales can be attributed to a decrease in demand for cargo transportation.
“If there is no construction, then there will be fewer dump trucks (needed). We also provide trucks for cargo transportation industry – if there are fewer of them, then there will be fewer haulage trucks,” he explained.
“The plan for 2025 is, in my opinion, 10,000 units. But we don’t know if there will be that many, because Chinese brands have large warehouse stocks,” Matasov added.
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Layoffs Begin in the North American Truck Segment
Chris Fisher Both Volvo and International Truck have initiated layoffs this year due to sluggish orders and high production capacity in preparation for a potential 2026 truck pre-buy ahead of the phase 3 GHG Emission Regulations scheduled for implementation in 2027.
Volvo Trucks North America plans to lay off up to another 350 workers from a Virginia plant as part of job cuts affecting up to 980 employees across the country since the beginning of the year.
Employees at the New River Valley plant in Dublin, Virginia, were notified of the workforce reduction this month, and their last day at the facility will be June 27, Volvo spokesperson Janie Coley said.
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Q1 2025 Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) drops 5.3%
St. Paul, MN (April 21, 2025)— The Power Systems Research Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) dropped from 113 to 107, or -5.3%, for the three-month period ending March 31, 2025, from Q4 2024. The year-over-year (Q1 2024 to Q1 2025) timeframe was flat for the PSR-TPI, 107 to 107, or 0%.
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Trump Tariffs Impact NA Truck Market
Chris Fisher It appears the two main goals for implementing US trade tariffs: to bring more manufacturing jobs to United States and to negotiate more favorable trade agreements to reduce the trade deficit with the rest of the world, could negatively impact the North American medium and heavy truck market. In 2024, the United States trade deficit was $918.4 billion which was a 17% increase from 2023.
April 9, President Trump paused his reciprocal tariffs on most countries for 90 days. The tariffs for most countries would be reduced to 10% during this period. Canada and Mexico will not be impacted by the 10% tariff for goods trading under the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement. However, tariffs on imported Chinese goods were raised to 145% after the Chinese implemented retaliatory tariffs on goods exported into China from the United States.
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