Anfavea has revised its 2026 Brazilian truck production forecast downward to 115,600 units, from 118,200 previously, a 6.8% decline compared with 2025. Truck exports were revised more sharply, from 25,300 to 22,500 units, representing a 16.6% annual contraction.
From January through September, Brazilian truck production reached 92,300 units, down 6.4% year-over-year, while exports fell 21.3% to approximately 17,000 units. Domestic registrations have been more resilient, leading Anfavea to slightly increase its full-year sales forecast to 107,000 units.
Source: Transporte Moderno / Anfavea
PSR Analysis. Anfavea is following a pattern seen repeatedly in recent years: maintaining market forecasts that tend to reflect the message it wants to convey to suppliers and policymakers, then adjusting them toward market reality in the fourth quarter and ultimately converging toward projections PSR had anticipated earlier.
In 2026, the delayed interest-rate easing cycle and increased election-related uncertainty justified downward revisions both in PSR’s forecasts and, later, in Anfavea’s outlook. The difference is timing: PSR reacts earlier to changes in underlying market conditions because its forecasts are designed to provide subscribers with the most realistic scenario available rather than to support an industry position. PSR
