St. Paul, Minnesota, USA— The Power Systems Research Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) increased from 107 to 116, or 8.4% for the 12 months ended Dec. 31, 2023. For the fourth quarter of 2023, ending Dec. 31, 2023, the index increased from 112 to 116, or 3.6%, compared to Q3 2023.

The PSR-TPI is a quarterly truck production report that measures global truck production across six regions: North America, China, Europe, South America, Japan & Korea and Emerging Markets. This data comes from OE Link™, the proprietary database maintained by Power Systems Research.

The next update of the Power Systems Research TPI will be in April 2024 and will reflect changes in the TPI during Q1 2024. PSR

Jim Downey is vice president – global data products at Power Systems Research and Chris Fisher is the senior commercial vehicle analyst at Power Systems Research 

St. Paul, Minnesota, USA— The Power Systems Research Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) increased from 107 to 116, or 8.4% for the 12 months ended Dec. 31, 2023. For the fourth quarter of 2023, ending Dec. 31, 2023, the index increased from 112 to 116, or 3.6%, compared to Q3 2023.

South America. Medium and heavy commercial vehicle production is expected to increase by 22.1% this year after a significant decline in 2023 primarily driven by a weaker economy and the implementation of the Proconve 8 emission regulations in Brazil last year.

The PSR-TPI is a quarterly truck production report that measures global truck production in six regions: North America, China, Europe, South America, Japan & Korea and Emerging Markets.

This data comes from OE Link™, the proprietary database maintained by Power Systems Research.

The next update of the Power Systems Research TPI will be in April 2024 and will reflect changes in the TPI during Q1 2024.  PSR

Jim Downey is vice president – global data products at Power Systems Research and Chris Fisher is the senior commercial vehicle analyst at Power Systems Research 

St. Paul, MN — The Power Systems Research Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) climbed from 104 to 108, or 3.6%, for the 12 months ended Sept. 30, 2023. The PSR-TPI dropped from 117 to 108, or 7.7%, for the three-month period ending Sept. 30, 2023, from  Q2 2023.

The PSR-TPI is a quarterly truck production report that measures global truck production in six regions:  North America, China, Europe, South America, Japan and Korea and Emerging Markets.

This data comes from OE Link™, the proprietary database maintained by Power Systems Research. The next update of the Power Systems Research TPI will be in January 2024 and will reflect changes in the TPI during Q4 2023. PSR

Jim Downey is vice president – global data products at Power Systems Research and Chris Fisher is the senior commercial vehicle analyst at Power Systems Research 

St. Paul, MN — The Power Systems Research Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) increased from 106 to 116, or 9.4%, for the three-month period ending June 30, 2023, from Q1 2023. The year-over-year (Q2 2022 to Q2 2023) gain for the PSR-TPI was, 112 to 116, or 3.6%.

The PSR-TPI is a quarterly truck production report that measures global truck production in six regions: North America, China, Europe, South America, Japan and Korea and Emerging Markets.

This data comes from OE Link™, the proprietary database maintained by Power Systems Research. The next update of the Power Systems Research TPI will be in October 2023 and will reflect changes in the TPI during Q3 2023. PSR

Jim Downey is vice president – global data products at Power Systems Research and Chris Fisher is the senior commercial vehicle analyst at Power Systems Research            

St. Paul, MN (April 8, 2023)— The Power Systems Research Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) decreased from 108 to 106, or -1.9%, for the three-month period ended March 31, 2023, compared to Q4 2022. The year-over-year (Q1 2022 to  Q1 2023) gain for the PSR-TPI was, 103 to 106, or 2.9%.

The PSR-TPI is a quarterly truck production report that measures global truck production in six regions:  North America, China, Europe, South America, Japan & Korea and Emerging Markets.

This data comes from OE Link™, the proprietary database maintained by Power Systems Research. The next update of the Power Systems Research TPI will be in July 2023 and will reflect changes in the TPI during Q2 2023.  PSR

Jim Downey is vice president – global data products at Power Systems Research
Chris Fisher is the senior commercial vehicle analyst at Power Systems Research

St. Paul, MN (Janaury 23, 2023)— The Power Systems Research Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) increased from 101 to 105, or 3.7%, for the three-month period ended Dec. 31, 2022, from Q3 2022. The year-over-year (Q4 2021 through Q4 2022) loss for the PSR-TPI was, 122 to 105, or -13.2%.

The PSR-TPI measures truck production globally and across six regions: North America, China, Europe, South America, Japan & Korea and Emerging Markets.

This data comes from OE Link™, the proprietary database maintained by Power Systems Research.

Global Index. Global medium and heavy vehicle production is expected to decline by 15.8% in 2022 when final numbers are available in Q1 2023, primarily due to a significant drop in heavy truck demand in China. Global MHCV demand is expected to improve by 4.6% in 2023 even with concerns of a slowing global economy.  Ongoing supply chain disruptions along with generally higher inflation and a risk of Covid variants returning are also a concern moving forward.

All Regions. Medium and heavy commercial vehicle production will be mixed in 2022 due to a variety of issues.  In China, truck overcapacity continues to hinder demand while the Russian-Ukraine war is significantly impacting demand and production in Eastern Europe.  While the global supply chain is showing improvement, it will remain a problem in 2023 for all regions.  There is serious concern about a major slowdown in the North American and European economy as a direct result of higher fuel and energy prices and overall inflation which doesn’t appear to be going away anytime soon.

North America. Medium and heavy commercial vehicle production is expected to increase by 12.5% in 2022 over last year primarily driven by improved class 8 truck production.  While not back to pre-pandemic levels, the supply chain has seen improvement during the past few months.  Within the class 8 truck segment, PSR expects truck demand to remain strong into the first part of next year as a result of significant pent-up heavy truck demand.  While commercial vehicle demand is expected to decline slightly in 2023, production levels are expected to remain strong through at least the first half of the year. PSR

Jim Downey is Vice President – Global Data Products at Power Systems Research

Chris Fisher is the Senior Commercial Vehicle Analyst at Power Systems Research

Global Truck Production REPORT

St. Paul, MN (October 24, 2022)— The Power Systems Research Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) dropped from 110 to 101, or 8.2%, for the three-month period ended September 30, 2022, from Q2 2022. The year-over-year (Q3 2021 to Q3 2022) loss for the PSR-TPI was, 117 to 101, or 13.7%.

The PSR-TPI measures truck production globally and across six regions: North America, China, Europe, South America, Japan & Korea and Emerging Markets.

This data comes from OE Link™, the proprietary database maintained by Power Systems Research.

All Regions. Medium and heavy commercial vehicle production will be mixed this year due to a variety of issues.  In China, truck overcapacity continues to hinder demand while the Russian-Ukraine war is significantly impacting demand and production in Eastern Europe.  The global supply chain will remain a problem through at least the end of this year for all regions.  There is serious concern about a major slowdown in the North American and European economies as a direct result of higher fuel and energy prices and overall inflation which doesn’t appear to be going away anytime soon.

Global Index. Global medium and heavy vehicle production is expected to decline by 13% this year primarily due to a significant drop in heavy truck demand in China.  A slowing global economy along with continued supply chain disruptions will continue to place pressure on demand moving forward.

North America. Medium and heavy commercial vehicle production is expected to increase by 9.3% this year over 2021 as the OEMs continue to struggle with the supply chain disruption that is expected to continue well into next year.   Freight demand continues to remain healthy but is expected to cool as the economy in general slows down primarily due to high inflation and energy costs along with higher interest rates and continued disruption within the overall supply chain.  Within the class 8 truck segment, PSR expects truck demand to remain strong into the first part of next year as a result of significant pent-up heavy truck demand.  PSR

Jim Downey is Vice President – Global Data Products at Power Systems Research and
Chris Fisher is Senior Commercial Vehicle Analyst at Power Systems Research

St. Paul, MN (July 13, 2022)— The Power Systems Research Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) increased from 104 to 116, or11.5%, for the three-month period ended June 30, 2022, from Q1 2022. The year-over-year (Q2 2021 to the Q2 2022) loss for the PSR-TPI was, 130 to 116, or -10.8%.

The PSR-TPI measures truck production globally and across six regions: North America, China, Europe, South America, Japan & Korea and Emerging Markets.

This data comes from OE Link™, the proprietary database maintained by Power Systems Research.

Global Index. Global medium and heavy vehicle production is expected to decline by 10% this year primarily due to a drop in demand in China and Eastern Europe. However, a slowing global economy will also place pressure on demand moving forward.

All Regions. Medium and heavy commercial vehicle production will be mixed this year due to a variety of issues. In China, truck and bus overcapacity will hinder demand while the Russian-Ukraine war will significantly impact demand and production in Eastern Europe. Global supply chains will remain a problem through at least the end of this year for all regions. There is critical concern about major slowdowns in the North American and European economies as a direct result of higher fuel prices and inflation which does not appear to be going away anytime soon.

North America. Medium and heavy commercial vehicle production is expected to increase by 4.7% this year over 2021 as OEMs continue to struggle with the supply chain disruptions that are expected to continue through at least the end of the year. However, the threat of an economic slowdown is increasing, primarily due to significantly higher fuel prices, increasing interest rates and overall inflation. Even with an impending economic slowdown, freight should remain strong through at least the first quarter of 2023 as the fleets continue to reduce supply chain backlogs.

Europe. European medium and heavy commercial vehicle production volumes will be mixed this year with higher demand in Western Europe and much lower demand in Eastern Europe. Production in Eastern Europe is expected to decline in many countries primarily due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Russian OEMs have continued to produce vehicles during the first half of the year but are hampered due to lower demand and low/inconsistent production rates due to significant supply chain constraints. Eastern European countries such as Kazakhstan, Lithuania and Uzbekistan will also see a production decline this year due, in part, to reduced truck kit assemblies coming from Russia. Ukrainian truck production has ceased through at least the remainder of the year.

South Asia. After a very strong recovery in medium and heavy truck demand, India production is expected to increase by 22% this year over 2021.  Solid growth is also expected next year before declining in 2024 partially due to it being an election year.  In India, the focus is moving toward more infrastructure spending which is good for the vocational market.  However, increasing use of rail freight, worker shortages and increasing commodity prices likely will place pressure on truck demand during the next few years.  All other South Asian countries are expected to experience slight to moderate demand growth this year.

South America. After exceedingly elevated levels of MHCV production in Brazil last year, overall production in South America is expected to increase by 3.2% this year. The increased truck capacity from last year’s high production along with the risk of higher interest rates in the second half of 2022 and some impact in agriculture due lack of fertilizers will pressure production levels throughout the year. Emission regulations Proconve 8 or P8, equivalent to Euro VI, is required by January 2023. The legislation considers MHV to be all CV vehicles above 3.8 tons. The additional vehicle cost of the P8 emission technology will have a negative impact on demand next year.

Japan/Korea. Medium and heavy commercial vehicle production in Japan and South Korea is expected to increase by 3.6% this year over 2021. Concerns surrounding a slowing global economy along with continued supply chain disruptions will impact vehicle demand throughout the remainder of this year and into 2023. Japan and South Korea have a sizable portion of the global vehicle export market most notably in the ASEAN region.

Greater China. Medium and heavy commercial vehicle production is expected to decline by 30% this year, driven by a slowing economy and the affects from Covid-related lockdowns. The slowdown continues to impact global supply chains. China is also carrying a significant amount of debt and home sales, which account for approximately 30% of GDP, are declining sharply. Home sales declined 34.5% in the first five months of this year compared with the same period last year. Many property developers are defaulting due to large unsustainable debts. China’s banking system is also under pressure and is showing signs of a contracting economy.

The next update of the Power Systems Research TPI will be in October 2022 and will reflect changes in the TPI during Q3 2022.  PSR

Jim Downey is Vice President – Global Data Products at Power Systems Research and Chris Fisher is Senior Commercial Vehicle Analyst at Power Systems Research.

ST. PAUL, MN — The year-over-year (Q1 2021 to Q1 2022) Power Systems Research Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) dropped 114 to 109, or 4.4%. For the three-month period ended March 31, 2022, Q1 2022, the TPI decreased 9.2%, declining from 120 to 109.

The PSR-TPI measures truck production globally and across six regions: North America, China, Europe, South America, Japan & Korea and Emerging Markets.

This data comes from OE Link™, the proprietary database maintained by Power Systems Research. PSR

St. Paul, MN (January 25, 2022)— The Power Systems Research Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) increased from 116 to 120, or 3.4%, for the three-month period ended December 31, 2021, from Q3 2021. The year-over-year (Q4 2020 to Q4 2021) loss for the PSR-TPI was, 190 to 120, or -37%.

The PSR-TPI measures truck production globally and across six regions: North America, China, Europe, South America, Japan and Korea and Emerging Markets.

This data comes from OE Link™, the proprietary database maintained by Power Systems Research.

Global Index: We expect global production volumes in 2022 to gain 3.7% vs 2021, with a positive trend in all regions, except for China, where we expect production volumes to be down -3.6% in 2022 vs 2021.  China experienced a surge in demand during 2020 due to the change in emissions regulations, so 2021 was down significantly, about 20%. 

All Regions: Global demand for Medium and Heavy Commercial Vehicles (MHV) rebounded in 2021 but overall growth in the segment was flat.  Going forward, we expect the growth to accelerate in 2022 and 2023.   The exceptions to this rebound trend are in China and India, which continue to decline and sharply drive overall global production numbers into negative territory. 

North America: While supply chain disruptions continue to negatively impact the commercial vehicle market, medium and heavy commercial vehicle production is expected to finish 2021 15.8% higher than 2020.  The forecasted production growth rate is expected to continue to show improvement through 2023 as supply chain disruptions ease and truck capacity in the market begins to align with demand.  The disruption in the supply chain and on-going issues with COVID will continue to impact the market in 2022.

Europe: Medium and heavy truck production is expected to finish up 17% over 2020.  While the truck segment showed solid improvement over a low production base in 2020, bus demand was still soft in 2021.  In 2022, production is expected to grow by 8% and continue to improve through 2024.  However, continued supply chain disruptions and possible negative impacts from COVID will likely continue through much of 2022.

South Asia: Medium and heavy commercial vehicle production in India is expected to finish 2021 at about 287,000 vehicles, an increase of 70% over 2020. Slight demand growth in India is expected in 2022 and 2023 before declining in 2024 partially due to it being an election year. In India, the focus is moving toward more infrastructure spending which is good for the vocational market. However, increasing use of rail freight, worker shortages and increasing commodity prices will slow truck demand during the next few years.

South America: Medium and heavy commercial vehicle production is expected to increase by 55.6% in 2021 over 2020, and production is expected to further increase by 10.4% in 2022 over 2021.  Continued supply chain disruptions along with uncertainty regarding the Omicron COVID variant will likely impact the market throughout the year.

Japan/Korea: Medium and heavy commercial vehicle production in Japan and South Korea is expected to increase by 16.7% in 2021 over 2020.  In 2022, production levels for the region are expected to grow by 4.7% over 2021.  Automotive production in Japan is starting to see improvement with strong gains over October and November.  While this is good news, the supply chain issues have yet to be resolved and the Omicron COVID variant will likely pose challenges throughout the year.  Component costs are expected to rise this year because of supplier’s air freighting parts that they are unable to ship by sea.

Greater China: The medium and heavy commercial vehicle market declined by approximately 20% in 2021 over 2020 partially due to a truck pre-buy ahead of the China VI emission standard implementation in July 2021.  The cost of the emission technology for China VI vehicles are not offset with any significant improvement in fuel economy.  In 2022, the market will still be unstable as the covid virus continues to impact the economy.  Demand is expected to decline slightly through 2023 before a slow recovery in 2024.  

The next update of the Power Systems Research TPI will be in April 2022 and will reflect changes in the TPI during Q1 2022.  PSR

Jim Downey is Vice President – Global Data Products at Power Systems Research and Chris Fisher is Senior Commercial Vehicle Analyst at Power Systems Research.