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2019-09-03

Welcome to the New Gilded Age of Gen-Sets

This forecast appeared in the September 2019 issue of Diesel Progress magazine.

SUMMARY. The underlying weak conditions in the global economic picture could put pressure on the North American power generation industry for the remainder of 2019 and through most of 2020. We forecast little or no growth for the industry through 2020.

Even though the power generation production market was up slightly (0.9% in 2018-2019), we see it declining about 1% over the next year. 

Tyler Wiegert
Tyler Wiegert

For those of you a few years removed from your high school U.S. History courses, the original Gilded Age was a period covering the 1870s-1890s that was marked by astonishing economic growth. Driven by the expansion of industrialization in the North and West, facilitated by growing railroad networks, real wages grew an enviable 60%.

But Mark Twain dubbed this period the “Gilded Age” rather than the “Golden Age,” because it was also marked by extreme poverty, and he represented it with gilded, decaying apple. The shiny outward appearance of growth was masking a rotten core of massive inequality.

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2021-01-22

NA Economic Outlook: Slower H1 2021, But Much Stronger H2 2021 Expected

Yosyf Sheremeta
Yosyf Sheremeta

SUMMARY.  In our previous forecasts, we have discussed some hope for a V-shaped recovery, it did not materialize.  Our conclusion was based on several factors, such as the current economic cycle, overall strength of the economy, fiscal policy, political landscape in the US and globally, etc. After managing through the early stages of the pandemic in H1 2020, we saw good trends in H2 2020 and we had reasons to be optimistic for a quick recovery.

However, the recovery took a slight pause during the last few months.  Unemployment continued to increase, and regional lockdowns prevented the necessary demand for a significant year-end growth.  Now that the elections are over, we’ll have yet to see what the new administration will be able to achieve during the next two years.  Specifically, if the long awaited infrastructure reform can be passed.  However, fiscal policy with near zero interest rates, which government has promised to keep in place for the near future, will provide a good platform for the economic recovery and allow us to look optimistically into 2021-2022.

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2021-04-25

Fastest NA Economic Growth Expected Since 1980s

Read the complete report in April PowerTALK™ News.

Yosyf Sheremeta
Yosyf Sheremeta

(April 1, 2021)–After the GDP declined 3.5% last year, the worst performance in almost 75 years, the US economy is set for a strong comeback.  In fact, we could see GDP growth exceeding 6% this year.

There are many reasons to be optimistic about 2021.  Strong readings of macro-economic factors combined with the economic cycle reset backed by the government initiatives and policies support our estimates for the current year and beyond. 

Our positive outlook is based on the reviews of the key economic indicators, including GDP, unemployment, and inflation.   In our previous forecasts, we discussed recovery trends for the post-pandemic period, stating a return of demand for most markets in 2021, especially during H2 2021.  

Based on our analysis of the expected growth trend and the economic reviews in major publications, we think US growth can surpass the growth level from 1984 – the highest one since 1950s. 

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2022-02-20

North American Economy Should Be Strong in 2022 But Grow at Slower Pace

Yosyf Sheremeta
Yosyf Sheremeta

SUMMARY.  2021 was a year of big hopes for economic recovery and pandemic management, and, overall, the economic rebound was strong.  Looking at the state of the economy in general, and the key economic indicators such as GDP, interest rates, employment levels, etc., the North America market finished the year on a very high note. At the same time, development of new pandemic variants as well as ongoing issues with supply chains have led to manufacturing issues.

The second half of 2021 brought steady economic activities and strong economic recovery.  Despite this strong performance, many existing and new challenges were seen.  Problems from pandemic-related supply chain disruptions, logistics backlogs, and semiconductor shortages to new virus variations and labor market issues have contributed to slower growth in Q4 2021 than during the first half of last year. 

Let’s break it down.  The “Great Resignation” means companies must make themselves more attractive to new hires, and it provides those workers who remain more leverage to change corporate cultures from the inside.

With help of government support and targeted fiscal policies, the US economy showed a strong comeback in 2021.  Furthermore, the growth trajectory is well positioned to continue to expand into the next few years, however, at much slower pace, than in 2021. 

At the same time, there are many reasons for us to be optimistic about this trend.  Our positive outlook is based on the reviews of key economic indicators, including GDP, unemployment, and inflation.  In our previous forecasts, we discussed recovery trends for the post-pandemic period, and called for a return of demand for most markets in 2021.   Last year, we witnessed a strong level of activities and an economic  rebound for

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2021-01-24

Trucking News: Asking The Expert

Chris Fisher
Chris Fisher

What is the current state of electric vehicle technology globally as well as the U.S.?

From a medium and heavy truck perspective, electric trucks are still in the early stages of testing and it will still be a few years before we know if the current technology will be effective.  Transit or city buses are much further along in the process since these are largely not for profit vehicles and have more dedicated routes that allow for more consistent recharge. 

China is probably the furthest along with electric bus adoption with almost half of all medium and heavy buses produced being electric.  While electrified bus adoption in North America and Europe is not nearly as strong as China, demand is increasing. 

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2021-02-22

Chris Fisher Truck News – February 2021

In this episode of the PSR PowerTALK Podcast Chris Fisher, Power Systems’ Senior Commercial Vehicle Analyst, discusses the Q4 2020 global production facts and related forecasts for medium and heavy trucks.

Transcript

Welcome to PowerTALK Truck podcast February 2021. Produced by Power Systems Research, the leading supplier of global production data and forecasts to the engine power products and Components industries. Here’s today’s host, Emiliano Marzoli, Manager of Power Systems Research, European Operations.

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2022-02-20

NA Medium and Heavy EV Market In Early Testing

Chris Fisher
Chris Fisher

Q. What is the current state of electric vehicle technology globally as well as the U.S.?
A. From a medium and heavy truck perspective, electric trucks are still in the early stages of testing, and it will still be a few years before we know if the current technology will be effective.  Transit or city buses are much further along in the process since these are largely not for profit vehicles and have more dedicated routes that allow for more consistent recharge. 

China is probably the furthest along with electric bus adoption with almost half of all medium and heavy buses produced being electric.  While electrified bus adoption in North America and Europe is not nearly as strong as China, demand is increasing.  In North America, natural gas buses (CNG and Propane) are currently the alternative fuel of choice.  However, government mandates will likely force bus electrification over the next decade or so.

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2024-03-17

Van Hool Making Major Changes

Emiliano Marzoli
Emiliano Marzoli

At a special works council recently, bus manufacturer Van Hool announced over 1,100 jobs will be lost at the company between now and 2027. The redundancies and other job losses are part of the ‘Van Hool Recovery Plan’ the company is introducing to get the business back on track.

The largest number of job losses – about 830 – are planned for this year.  Bus production is now being moved to Macedonia, while trailers, industrial vehicles, R&D will remain in Flanders. 

Source:  VRT News.     Read The Article      Read This Article, Too

PSR Analysis:   Van Hool has struggled recently under the pressure of competition from Chinese manufacturers.  Even in the Flanders, home of Van Hool, Chinese bus manufacturer BYD was able to win a public tender for the supply of 300 electric urban busses.  The biggest advantage of Chinese companies is the know how and attractive price they can offer on battery powered busses.   In recent time, Van Hool has invested heavily in Fuel cells busses, but this move has not pay off. 

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PowerTALK™ News, November 2021

PSR-PowerTALK_November_2021_FinalDownload

Akihiro Komuro, PSR’s analyst in Japan, reports on the expansion of VinFast EV subsidiary of the Vietnamese conglomerate VinGroup that is expanding to the US. VinFast has announced plans for a US headquarters and manufacturing plant in California. Other stories in this issue of PowerTALK include:

  • Global Economic Forecast: On Path To Recovery
  • DataPoint: North America AG Tractors
  • Europe: BMW Starts Production of EV Motorcycle
  • South America
    • Stellantis Confirms Second LCV
    • Higer Bus To Produce EV Buses in Brazil
    • Concessions for Proconve L7 Seen
    • Argentine Auto Sales Decline
  • China: Weichai Produces 150-Ton Mining Truck
  • Japan: NEDO Begins R&D on Hydrogen Aircraft
  • South Korea: Hyundai Launches Wage Half Price Plant
  • Vietnam: VinFast Launches EVs, Plans US HQ and Production Plant
  • India: Chip Shortage Batters Auto Industry
  • Russia
    • AutoVAZ Halts Production
    • Assembly of Russian Railway Kits Starts in India
    • Russian Mega-Project in Doubt