What is the current state of electric vehicle technology globally as well as the U.S.?
From a medium and heavy truck perspective, electric trucks are still in the early stages of testing and it will still be a few years before we know if the current technology will be effective. Transit or city buses are much further along in the process since these are largely not for profit vehicles and have more dedicated routes that allow for more consistent recharge.
China is probably the furthest along with electric bus adoption with almost half of all medium and heavy buses produced being electric. While electrified bus adoption in North America and Europe is not nearly as strong as China, demand is increasing.
In North America, natural gas buses (CNG and Propane) are currently the alternative fuel of choice. However, government mandates will likely force bus electrification over the next decade or so.
What type of growth do you project and in what segments?
At this point, we believe the growth will be in the transit bus and pickup/delivery segments where charging infrastructure is more readily available. Since transit bus purchases are typically controlled by local and state governments, this will be a prime segment for electrification. Many of the large cities in the United States have committed to 100% adoption of electric transit buses. For example, Los Angeles plans to be all electric by 2030 while Seattle, New York and the state of California plan to have all electric transit buses by 2040.
Can you share your thoughts on the future of EVs?
We think the majority of the transit bus segment will ultimately be electrified as various government mandates will require the cities to be zero emission compliant. The future of medium and heavy commercial trucks is uncertain.
Electrified trucks are early in the testing phase and it will still be a few years before the testing is complete. At this point, the barriers to large scale adoption are great and unless electric vehicle purchases are required by the government, I don’t see large scale adoption for at least a decade. Basically, there needs to be a strong motivation for-profit based companies to acquire electric trucks. Government incentives and regulation is currently the most likely driver of electric truck adoption.
What are the benefits and challenges of EV technology?
The advantages of electric vehicles include elimination of fuel cost and reduced maintenance cost since EV’s have significantly fewer moving parts than the traditional commercial vehicle.
However, electric commercial vehicles will continue to compete with other technologies such as natural gas and possibly hydrogen fuel cells. Fuel economy improvements to the traditional engines could also impact electric vehicle adoption rates.
One of the biggest challenges is the lack of a nationwide charging infrastructure. This will limit adoption rates in the regional and long-haul truck segments. Other challenges for electric trucks include high up-front costs, battery weight, range anxiety and range reduction in cold weather. In the refuse truck segment, high up-front costs and duty cycle issues are cited as major barriers to adoption. PSR
Chris Fisher is Senior Commercial Vehicle Analyst at Power Systems Research
