We Expect 2020 NA Overall OEM Production To Be Flat

This article initially appeared in the February 2020 issue of PowerTALK News.

SUMMARY.  The North American economy remained stable in 2019 and pure economic conditions as well as fundamentals in the region were favorable. Most industries performed very well, and the short-term outlook remains stable to flat for most market segments. However, we see many new developments that could suggest a shift in the trend.

Yosyf Sheremeta
Yosyf Sheremeta

Consumer confidence declined slightly in December, following a moderate increase in November.  The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index stood at 126.5 in December, 1.4 points higher than in September 2019. 

Per Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board: “While consumers’ assessment of current conditions improved, their expectations declined, driven primarily by a softening in their short-term outlook regarding jobs and financial prospects. While the economy hasn’t shown signs of further weakening, there is little to suggest that growth, and in particular consumer spending, will gain momentum in early 2020.”

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E-Battery Technology Increases Opportunities

Michael Aistrup

As battery technology increases, the opportunities for battery-powered equipment continue to grow, especially in the Lawn & Garden and recreational products segments. The factors of reduced weight, increased charging capacity and lower cost are making battery-powered equipment more attractive to consumers and commercial users in these segments.

Lawn & Garden. The capacity of lithium-ion battery technology to meet the horsepower needs of the homeowner and the commercial landscaper has grown significantly in the last couple of years. Battery-powered lawn and garden equipment can now match the power of traditional gas-powered lawn and garden equipment. Some brands now have available 56V which is more than double what was the standard power available. Batteries now charge quicker, last longer, and can hold a charge indefinitely.

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California May Ban Gas-Powered Lawn Mowers and Leaf Blowers

Michael Aistrup
Michael Aistrup

California may soon ban the sale of gas-powered leaf blowers and lawn mowers under a bill the Legislature passed and sent to Gov. Newsom.

Assembly Bill 1346 would direct the California Air Resources Board to phase out the sale of “small off-road engines” by 2024, or as soon as the board finds feasible, whichever is later.

The bill’s author, Assemblyman Marc Berman, D-Menlo Park, tweeted that the state will spend $30 million “to help gardeners transition to cleaner, greener equipment.”

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NA Economic Outlook: Slower H1 2021, But Much Stronger H2 2021 Expected

Yosyf Sheremeta
Yosyf Sheremeta

SUMMARY.  In our previous forecasts, we have discussed some hope for a V-shaped recovery, it did not materialize.  Our conclusion was based on several factors, such as the current economic cycle, overall strength of the economy, fiscal policy, political landscape in the US and globally, etc. After managing through the early stages of the pandemic in H1 2020, we saw good trends in H2 2020 and we had reasons to be optimistic for a quick recovery.

However, the recovery took a slight pause during the last few months.  Unemployment continued to increase, and regional lockdowns prevented the necessary demand for a significant year-end growth.  Now that the elections are over, we’ll have yet to see what the new administration will be able to achieve during the next two years.  Specifically, if the long awaited infrastructure reform can be passed.  However, fiscal policy with near zero interest rates, which government has promised to keep in place for the near future, will provide a good platform for the economic recovery and allow us to look optimistically into 2021-2022.

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North American Economy Should Be Strong in 2022 But Grow at Slower Pace

Yosyf Sheremeta
Yosyf Sheremeta

SUMMARY.  2021 was a year of big hopes for economic recovery and pandemic management, and, overall, the economic rebound was strong.  Looking at the state of the economy in general, and the key economic indicators such as GDP, interest rates, employment levels, etc., the North America market finished the year on a very high note. At the same time, development of new pandemic variants as well as ongoing issues with supply chains have led to manufacturing issues.

The second half of 2021 brought steady economic activities and strong economic recovery.  Despite this strong performance, many existing and new challenges were seen.  Problems from pandemic-related supply chain disruptions, logistics backlogs, and semiconductor shortages to new virus variations and labor market issues have contributed to slower growth in Q4 2021 than during the first half of last year. 

Let’s break it down.  The “Great Resignation” means companies must make themselves more attractive to new hires, and it provides those workers who remain more leverage to change corporate cultures from the inside.

With help of government support and targeted fiscal policies, the US economy showed a strong comeback in 2021.  Furthermore, the growth trajectory is well positioned to continue to expand into the next few years, however, at much slower pace, than in 2021. 

At the same time, there are many reasons for us to be optimistic about this trend.  Our positive outlook is based on the reviews of key economic indicators, including GDP, unemployment, and inflation.  In our previous forecasts, we discussed recovery trends for the post-pandemic period, and called for a return of demand for most markets in 2021.   Last year, we witnessed a strong level of activities and an economic  rebound for

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Off-Highway Truck Production

2019 NA Production About The Same as 2018

1400 Units

This information originally appeared in the August 2019 issue of PowerTALK.

Carol Turner is Senior Analyst, Global Operations

DataPoint

Fourteen hundred units is the estimate, by Power Systems Research, of the number of Off-Highway Trucks that will be produced in the United States and Canada during 2019. Estimated 2019 production will be about the same as 2018.

In 2018, production was 1412 units, down 55 units or 4% from 2017.

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Q2 2021 Truck Production Report

Chris Fisher, Senior Commercial Vehicle Analyst at Power Systems Research, discusses the Q2 2021 global production facts and related forecasts for medium and heavy trucks, as reported in the quarterly PSR Truck Production Index.

Transcript

Welcome to the PSR PowerTALK podcast produced by Power Systems Research.

00:06 Joe Delmont

From Power Systems Research, I’m Joe Delmont, editor of PSR PowerTALK.

Today we’ll discuss global truck production with Chris Fisher. Chris is Senior Commercial Vehicle Analyst at Power Systems Research.

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