We Expect 2020 NA Overall OEM Production To Be Flat

This article initially appeared in the February 2020 issue of PowerTALK News.

SUMMARY.  The North American economy remained stable in 2019 and pure economic conditions as well as fundamentals in the region were favorable. Most industries performed very well, and the short-term outlook remains stable to flat for most market segments. However, we see many new developments that could suggest a shift in the trend.

Yosyf Sheremeta
Yosyf Sheremeta

Consumer confidence declined slightly in December, following a moderate increase in November.  The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index stood at 126.5 in December, 1.4 points higher than in September 2019. 

Per Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board: “While consumers’ assessment of current conditions improved, their expectations declined, driven primarily by a softening in their short-term outlook regarding jobs and financial prospects. While the economy hasn’t shown signs of further weakening, there is little to suggest that growth, and in particular consumer spending, will gain momentum in early 2020.”

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Q2 2021 Truck Production Report

Chris Fisher, Senior Commercial Vehicle Analyst at Power Systems Research, discusses the Q2 2021 global production facts and related forecasts for medium and heavy trucks, as reported in the quarterly PSR Truck Production Index.

Transcript

Welcome to the PSR PowerTALK podcast produced by Power Systems Research.

00:06 Joe Delmont

From Power Systems Research, I’m Joe Delmont, editor of PSR PowerTALK.

Today we’ll discuss global truck production with Chris Fisher. Chris is Senior Commercial Vehicle Analyst at Power Systems Research.

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Q1 2021 Truck Production Report

In this episode of PSR PowerTALK, Chris Fisher, senior commercial vehicle analyst at Power Systems Research, talks about the reasons for the 42.5% first quarter 2021 drop in global truck production.

Transcript

Welcome to the PSR PowerTALK podcast, produced by Power Systems Research.

00:06 Joe Delmont:

From Power systems Research I’m Joe Delmont, editor of PSR PowerTALK. Today we’ll discuss global truck production with Chris Fisher, PSR, senior commercial vehicle analyst.

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Kubota Unveils First Fuel Cell Tractor

JAPAN REPORT
Akihiro Komuro
Akihiro Komuro

On March 28, Kubota unveiled the first prototype of a fuel cell-powered tractor. Although no release date has been set, the company will consider installing fuel cells in unmanned, automated tractors. Kubota is also developing battery-powered agricultural equipment, but the company believes that hydrogen-powered fuel cells will be effective for medium-large sized agricultural equipment.

Kubota is rushing to commercialize fuel cells because it believes demand will grow in developed countries such as Japan, Europe and the United States as a result of the trend toward decarbonization. The prototype machine has about 60 horsepower and has three hydrogen tanks installed above the cabin, which are used in Toyota’s Mirai fuel cell car. It generates electricity by reacting hydrogen with oxygen to power the engine. In the experiment, a tractor was equipped with a plowing unit to till the soil.

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Q1 2021 Power Systems Research Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) Falls 42.5%

St. Paul, MN (April 13, 2021)— The Power Systems Research Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) dropped 42.5% for the three-month period ended March 31, 2021, declining from 186 to 107, from the fourth quarter of 2020. The year-over-year (Q1 2020 to Q1 2021) improvement for the PSR-TPI was 15%, in which it climbed from 93 to 107.

The PSR-TPI measures truck production globally and across six regions: North America, China, Europe, South America, Japan & Korea and Emerging Markets.

This data comes from OE Link™, the proprietary database maintained by Power Systems Research.

Global Index. While the decline in commercial vehicle demand in China will lower global vehicle demand this year, improved demand is expected in all other regions.

All Regions. Except for China, demand for medium and heavy commercial vehicles has bottomed out and is expected to increase this year and into 2022 as the various economies improve and Coronavirus vaccinations increase.  The market will also experience periodic supply chain disruptions primarily due to the impact from the Coronavirus.

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Most Regions Will Post 20%+ Growth in Truck Production

Chris Fisher
Chris Fisher

Editor’s Note: This is an updated report from the Q2 2021 Truck Production Index report produced by Chris Fisher and Jim Downey, Vice President-Global Data Products, in July 2021.

Question: What is the global truck production picture? What is the outlook?

PSR Opinion: Overall, medium and heavy truck demand will finish the year on a strong note, and continued strength is expected into 2022.  On-going supply chain disruptions will continue to impact production throughout the rest of the year and likely into 2022.

Question: What kind of global production volume do you expect for this year?

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NA Economic Outlook: Slower H1 2021, But Much Stronger H2 2021 Expected

Yosyf Sheremeta
Yosyf Sheremeta

SUMMARY.  In our previous forecasts, we have discussed some hope for a V-shaped recovery, it did not materialize.  Our conclusion was based on several factors, such as the current economic cycle, overall strength of the economy, fiscal policy, political landscape in the US and globally, etc. After managing through the early stages of the pandemic in H1 2020, we saw good trends in H2 2020 and we had reasons to be optimistic for a quick recovery.

However, the recovery took a slight pause during the last few months.  Unemployment continued to increase, and regional lockdowns prevented the necessary demand for a significant year-end growth.  Now that the elections are over, we’ll have yet to see what the new administration will be able to achieve during the next two years.  Specifically, if the long awaited infrastructure reform can be passed.  However, fiscal policy with near zero interest rates, which government has promised to keep in place for the near future, will provide a good platform for the economic recovery and allow us to look optimistically into 2021-2022.

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North American Economy Should Be Strong in 2022 But Grow at Slower Pace

Yosyf Sheremeta
Yosyf Sheremeta

SUMMARY.  2021 was a year of big hopes for economic recovery and pandemic management, and, overall, the economic rebound was strong.  Looking at the state of the economy in general, and the key economic indicators such as GDP, interest rates, employment levels, etc., the North America market finished the year on a very high note. At the same time, development of new pandemic variants as well as ongoing issues with supply chains have led to manufacturing issues.

The second half of 2021 brought steady economic activities and strong economic recovery.  Despite this strong performance, many existing and new challenges were seen.  Problems from pandemic-related supply chain disruptions, logistics backlogs, and semiconductor shortages to new virus variations and labor market issues have contributed to slower growth in Q4 2021 than during the first half of last year. 

Let’s break it down.  The “Great Resignation” means companies must make themselves more attractive to new hires, and it provides those workers who remain more leverage to change corporate cultures from the inside.

With help of government support and targeted fiscal policies, the US economy showed a strong comeback in 2021.  Furthermore, the growth trajectory is well positioned to continue to expand into the next few years, however, at much slower pace, than in 2021. 

At the same time, there are many reasons for us to be optimistic about this trend.  Our positive outlook is based on the reviews of key economic indicators, including GDP, unemployment, and inflation.  In our previous forecasts, we discussed recovery trends for the post-pandemic period, and called for a return of demand for most markets in 2021.   Last year, we witnessed a strong level of activities and an economic  rebound for

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