Strong Growth Will Continue into 2022-23

Yosyf Sheremeta
Yosyf Sheremeta

The third quarter of 2021 brought steady economic activities and strong economic recovery in North America.  Despite this strong economic recovery, many existing and new challenges developed.  Pandemic-related supply chain disruptions, logistics backlogs, shortages within semiconductor products and new virus re-problems, labor market issues (shortages across service industry as well as skilled labor)- have contributed to slower growth in Q3 2021 than previously expected. 

With the help of government support and targeted fiscal policies, the US economy is showing a strong comeback in 2021.  Furthermore, it is on a positive trajectory to continue to grow in the next few years.  There are many reasons for us to be optimistic about this trend.  Our positive outlook is based on the reviews of key economic indicators, including GDP, unemployment, and inflation.  In our previous forecasts, we discussed recovery trends for the post-pandemic period, and we called for a return of demand for most markets in 2021, especially during H2 2021.  

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Brazil Highway Implement Registrations Continue High

BRAZIL/SOUTH AMERICA REPORT  

July registrations of implements (trailer and over-chassis) reached 13,133 units, above the January to May average of 12,500 units. ANFIR (National Association of Road Implement Manufacturers) forecast is to reach 165,000 unit registrations, slightly above the 163,000 registered last year.

Source: Automotive Business      Read The Article

PSR Analysis: The trailers and over-chassis implement supply chain has fewer constraints than the Truck supply chain. While the market is influenced by the same drivers, the atypical stops due to shortage of components make the Trailer market an indicator of the Truck Market without the constraints. The positive outlook either in terms of actual sales and the forecast made by the OEM reinforces the forecast of a strong MHV production and sales numbers for the second half of 2022.    PSR

Fabio Ferraresi is Director Business Development-South America for Power Systems Research

Acquisitions in Light/Medium EV Segment

NORTH AMERICA REPORT
Chris Fisher
Chris Fisher

2022 has been an interesting year on many commercial vehicle fronts including the medium and light electric commercial truck and van segment.  While large established OEMs such as Ford, who is expected to produce approximately 6,500 E-Transits at the Kansas City plant in 2022, there has been some shakeup within the electric commercial vehicle start-ups. 

During the past six months, Mullen Automotive, based in Brea, CA, has acquired the assets of the now bankrupt Electric Last Mile (ELMS) company and has acquired 60% of Bollinger Motors, which has yet to start vehicle production.

In September 2022, Mullen Automotive invested $148 million into Bollinger Motors, giving Mullen a 60% share of the company.  Bollinger plans on introducing their electric class 3 – 6 lineup of cargo vehicles starting in 2023 and it is likely that Bollinger will also manufacture the Mullen electric light commercial vans also starting production in 2023.

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Q2 2018 Shows Further Evidence of Paradigm Shifts Following 2017 Hurricanes

SUMMARY: Gen-set sales climbed 5% over Q1 2018 levels in anticipation of the camping season and end of fiscal year for many government and industrial consumers. While fewer dealers commented on specific-storm related residential demand this quarter, the 5% growth this quarter does seem to indicate that last year’s hurricanes may have raised the gen-set market up to a new normal, especially when compared to the 1.8% growth reported in Q2 of 2017.

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Enhancements Made in MHV Segment Data

Joe Zirnhelt
Joe Zirnhelt

As we move through the 2021 year, we at Power Systems Research are working to include enhancements within the data for our Medium and Heavy Vehicles segment that is available in OE Link™, CV Link™ and PartsLink™.

We have added several new fields to increase the value of the data to users as they analyze and further segment the markets.  These enhancements, now available as of March 31, 2021,  include:

OEM Assembly Information for Knockdown (Kit) Production. New fields including OEM Assembly Type (Kit vs. Full),  OEM Assembly Plant and OEM Assembly Country which will help in the analysis of OEMs involved in knockdown production (i.e. Kit) where initial production of the engine and chassis are different from the final OEM Country.

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NA Electric Motorcycle Segment Growing

Michael Aistrup
Michael Aistrup

Motorcycling in America is changing as industry leaders and new technology competitors are trying to attract newer/younger riders who want something different from Harley-Davidson’s big cruisers or screaming Japanese and European performance bikes.

The changes are in response to younger riders who are attracted to the efficiency and fun of two-wheel travel associated with e-motorcycles, while older riders are losing interest, or simply becoming unable to ride any longer.

At present, e-motorcycles remain a niche market. Riders are typically city dwellers in their early 40s–slightly younger than the average age of a U.S. motorcycle rider, which is 47, according to the Motorcycle Industry Council’s U.S. Motorcycle Owner Survey — and uses the bike to commute.

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VIETNAM REPORT: VinFast Enters Luxury Segment With New SUV

Vietnamese automaker VinFast has launched a luxury SUV, the VinFast President, to take on global brands like Lexus and Mercedes. To cost VND4.6 billion ($198,200), the seven-seater looks similar to VinFast’s first SUV, the Lux SA2.0, but with more advanced technologies and frills like massage and heated seats.

Akihiro Komuro
Akihiro Komuro

Its 420HP V8 engine can go from zero to 100 kilometers per hour in 6.8 seconds and offers a top speed of nearly 300 kph. VinFast will produce only 500 units and sell them exclusively in Vietnam. The first 100 customers will get a 17% discount on the price.

In its segment, the VinFast President costs 45% less than the Lexus LX 570 and 33% less than the BMW X7. Industry insiders say it lacks some premium features often seen in luxury cars such as captain’s chairs, TV screens and a high-end sound system. The vehicle signifies the ambition of VinFast, a unit of Vietnam’s largest conglomerate, Vingroup, to enter all segments of the auto market after bringing out its first vehicle in July last year.

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Powersports Segment Growth Ignores COVID-19

Michael Aistrup
Michael Aistrup

While much of the North American economy slowed to a crawl after COVID-19 shutdowns in 2020, the powersports industry posted significant growth. Many people, weary of staying at home, found a cure for cabin fever while riding an off-road vehicle or experiencing socially distant spaces on trails. By all indications, the sales increase in powersports equipment has been one of the few bright spots in an otherwise grim COVID-19 economy.

According to Jeremy Jansen, senior vice president of Wells Fargo Commercial Banking’s distribution financing business, “What started out as a slight uptick has just taken off to record sales levels,” he said. “Dirt bikes, ATVs, side by sides, personal transport vehicles — everything in the book is retailing well above prior year.” After plummeting briefly in mid-March amid the initial shutdown, powersports sales skyrocketed in the ensuing months.

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