Welcome to the New Gilded Age This forecast appeared in the September 2019 issue of Diesel Progress magazine.
SUMMARY. The underlying weak conditions in the global economic picture could put pressure on the North American power generation industry for the remainder of 2019 and through most of 2020. We forecast little or no growth for the industry through 2020.
This forecast appeared in the September 2019 issue of Diesel Progress magazine.
SUMMARY. The underlying weak conditions in the global economic picture could put pressure on the North American power generation industry for the remainder of 2019 and through most of 2020. We forecast little or no growth for the industry through 2020.
Even though the power generation production market was up slightly (0.9% in 2018-2019), we see it declining about 1% over the next year.
For those of you a few years removed from your high school U.S. History courses, the original Gilded Age was a period covering the 1870s-1890s that was marked by astonishing economic growth. Driven by the expansion of industrialization in the North and West, facilitated by growing railroad networks, real wages grew an enviable 60%.
But Mark Twain dubbed this period the “Gilded Age” rather than the “Golden Age,” because it was also marked by extreme poverty, and he represented it with gilded, decaying apple. The shiny outward appearance of growth was masking a rotten core of massive inequality.
What changes do you see in the PSR Truck Production Index in the fourth quarter compared to the third quarter of 2020?
Overall, we are seeing stronger momentum for commercial truck orders and sales which bode well for production in Q1 2021.
Supply chain issues will impact short term production as companies are still having difficulty with staffing numbers and various virus protocols that disrupt production. These problems are expected to continue throughout at least the first half of the year.
Editor’s Note: This report includes a conversation with Miguel Elizalde Lizárraga, the executive president of ANPACT (the National Association of Bus, Truck and Engine Manufacturers) and a visit to the Expotransporte 2022, the largest truck show in Latin America.
ANPACT represents the trucks, buses and engine manufacturers in Mexico. It participates actively with government organizations and other important related associations to ensure the truck and bus industry gets enough support, incentives, alliances, agreements and information to grow in the local market. Also, to continue with their outstanding role as one of the most important exporters of heavy duty vehicles globally.
The ANPACT gathers the most important trucks, buses and engine manufacturers in Mexico such as Kenworth, Freightliner, International, Mercedes Benz, Man, Volkswagen, Scania, Dina, Mack, Volvo, Isuzu, Hino, Detroit and Cummins.
During our conversation, Elizalde provided timely insights into the Mexican transportation industry and the major market challenges this country is facing today.
Vehicles manufactured in Mexico produce an important impact on the country’s economy, logistics and mobility. For example, 71% of the foreign trade value is moved to the US through heavy duty trucks. Much of the movement of goods in Mexico is through trucks, and people use buses as their main transportation.
According to ANPACT´s August statistics, manufacturers produced a total of 127,858 heavy duty vehicles from January through August this year. This is 18% more than 2021 production. Through August, export volumes increased by 15.7% (106,824 units) compared to 2021. Retail demand has increased so far by 20.5% (25,196 units).
Current challenges the transportation industry is facing today in Mexico include road safety, environmental regulations implementation, supply chain lead times, driver shortage, e-commerce, vehicles renewals, safety and energy infrastructure.
St. Paul, MN (Oct. 16, 2019)— The Power Systems Research Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) dropped from 128 to 1116, or 9.4%, for the three-month period ended Sept. 30, 2019, from Q2 2019. The year-over-year (Q3 2018 to Q3 2019) loss for the PSR-TPI was, 120 to 116, or 3.3%.
ST. PAUL, MN — The Power Systems Research Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) increased from 106 to 120, or 13.2%, for the three-month period ended June 30, 2019, from Q1 2019. The year-over-year (Q2 2018 to Q2 2019) loss for the PSR-TPI was, 122 to 120, or 1.6%.
Editor’s Note: This is an updated report from the Q2 2021 Truck Production Index report produced by Chris Fisher and Jim Downey, Vice President-Global Data Products, in July 2021.
Question: What is the global truck production picture? What is the outlook?
PSR Opinion: Overall, medium and heavy truck demand will finish the year on a strong note, and continued strength is expected into 2022. On-going supply chain disruptions will continue to impact production throughout the rest of the year and likely into 2022.
Question: What kind of global production volume do you expect for this year?
FAW Jiefang and CATL have set up a joint venture company, Jiefang (Jilin) New Energy Technology Co., Ltd., to do business in the new energy segment. The company is wholly-owned by Jiefang shidai New Energy Technology Co., Ltd., which is a joint venture between FAW and CATL with each party holding 50% of the JV’s shares.
The JV was established to sell new energy vehicles, batteries, battery parts, and electric vehicle charging equipment charging stations; Information system integration services; and Intelligent control system integration. It also will manufacture power transmission and distribution and control equipment.
In August 2022, CATL reached a strategic cooperation agreement with FAW Jiefang, proposing to invest 500 million yuan to establish a subsidiary for cooperation. CATL’s battery business mainly focuses on the passenger car market, and the cooperation between the two sides marks the beginning of CATL’s in-depth launch into the new energy commercial vehicle market.
The symposium of battery change mode for new energy vehicle was held June 15 in Xuzhou, Jiangsu. Data from National Big Data Alliance of New Energy Vehicles suggests that over 3 million new energy vehicles were in the system in 2019 and 900,000 vehicles are running daily. Data also suggest that new energy vehicle GVW range primarily falls under 4.5 tons.
Source: Sohu Read The Article
PSR Analysis: Many numbers are in the article, some contradictory. As one of the truck OEMs, XCMG does make some excellent points on the daily use of the battery-powered vehicle, using data collected from end-users, such as working hours, range anxiety and surprisingly, maintenance and downtime.
But I want to point out one potential issue that might travel under the radar: operating cost, more specifically, fuel cost. For large fleet owners like JD.com Inc. or SF Express, fuel cost might be a key factor in choosing a battery-powered vehicle over ICE-powered vehicle for urban delivery.
There are energy companies already working with large industrial businesses to install wind or solar power onsite to address their electricity bill issue. Once completed, giant companies like JD or SF Express will significantly cut down their operating expenses on fuel, in this case, electricity.
There is one game changer out there now. How will ICE-powered light duty trucks compete with battery-powered vehicles, when the latter runs free of charge and free of emission? What will happen to all the components suppliers for light duty trucks, especially urban delivery trucks? PSR
Qin Fen Is Business Development Manager in China for Power Systems Research.
St. Paul, MN — The Power Systems Research Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) increased from 113 to 127, or 12.4%, for the three-month period ended June 30, 2018, from the Q1 2018. The year-over-year (Q2 2017 to Q2 2018) gain for the PSR-TPI was 124 to 127, or 2.4%.
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