We Expect 2020 NA Overall OEM Production To Be Flat

This article initially appeared in the February 2020 issue of PowerTALK News.

SUMMARY.  The North American economy remained stable in 2019 and pure economic conditions as well as fundamentals in the region were favorable. Most industries performed very well, and the short-term outlook remains stable to flat for most market segments. However, we see many new developments that could suggest a shift in the trend.

Yosyf Sheremeta
Yosyf Sheremeta

Consumer confidence declined slightly in December, following a moderate increase in November.  The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index stood at 126.5 in December, 1.4 points higher than in September 2019. 

Per Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board: “While consumers’ assessment of current conditions improved, their expectations declined, driven primarily by a softening in their short-term outlook regarding jobs and financial prospects. While the economy hasn’t shown signs of further weakening, there is little to suggest that growth, and in particular consumer spending, will gain momentum in early 2020.”

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Mercedes-Benz Focuses on Autonomous Driving Trucks

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Daimler has realigned the focus of Mercedes-Benz on autonomous driving. Instead of self-driving cars, trucks are now at the top of its priority list.

Dalibor Sablic
Dalibor Sablic

The German car maker initially planned to concentrate on autonomous cars, explained Daimler CEO Ola Kallenius in a conversation with journalists at the canceled Geneva Motor Show. The group believes that self-driving trucks are initially the more attractive area, says the Daimler boss, according to the news platform news.com.au.

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COVID19 Special Report – Brazil Market Update

Power Systems Research published in the June 13  issue of Automotive Business magazine a high level update on perspectives of MHV and Off-Highway segments. See the article at the link below and translated presentation.

Carlos Briganti
Carlos Briganti

Source: PSR at Automotive Business     Read The Article

PSR Analysis: Although ANFAVEA published a decreased forecast, we believe that the decrease will be lower than the Light Vehicles decrease. Metrics we follow, such as Diesel consumption and the number of Vehicles going through tolls by weight category, show a lower impact in Commercial Vehicles. Other factors: a smaller than expected reduction during the pandemic isolation, agribusiness remaining strong and a lower than expected impact on mining/construction.

Carlos Briganti Is Managing Director, Power Systems Research – SA

PowerTALK™ News, March 2021

Power Systems Research has launched a weekly podcast show featuring interviews with its analysts. The shows run from five minutes to 20 minutes, depending upon content. Read more about the program in the March issue of PowerTALK News.

Also in this issue is a report on North American generator sales produced as part of the PSR PowerTracker series of quarterly surveys with dealers, distributors and consumers. Read Joe Zirnhelt’s report in this month’s issue of PowerTALK News.

Here are more articles in this issue:

  • Power Systems Research Webinar Series
  • DataPoint: US ATVs
  • Europe: 100% Hydrogen Ferry
  • South America
    • Brazil Corolla Exports Planned
    • Jacto Plans Facility
    • Foton Plans Electric Truck
  • China: Beijing Accelerates Battery Plan
  • Japan: Komatsu Targets 2050 Co2 Emissions
  • South Korea: Doosan Unveils Wheel Loader
  • Indonesia: China, South Korea Boost Investment
  • India: Semiconductor Shortage
  • Russia
    • TMH-RR Purchase Stalls
    • PSMA Begins Diesel Production
    • KAMAZ JV Expands Production

GAZ Increased LCV Production by 19% in Q1 2021

Maxim Sakov
Maxim Sakov

The GAZ plant in Nizhny Novgorod has made 11,300 LCVs in Q1 2021, according to the Trade Ministry of Russia. That’s 18.7% higher than the same period of last year. HD truck production by the GAZ Group increased by 29% in Q1 2021, from 1,700 to 2,200 units.

In total, according to the Russian Statistic bureau “Rosstat”, production growth of Russian on-highway vehicles increased by 13.7%. OEMs have made 402,800 units. LCV output has grown by 37.7%, trucks by 27.1%, and passenger cars by 12.1%.

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PSR Analysis: Statistics show that now we are seeing the realization of pent-up demand, which is especially active for commercial vehicles. For passenger cars, this process is also visible (four times sales growth during April), but already it is coming to an end, and after few months we can expect to see negative figures in this segment.    PSR

Maxim Sakov is Market Consultant-Russia Operations for Power Systems Research

PSR Database Basics

Joe Zirnhelt is president and CEO of Power Systems Research. Today, Joe will describe the landscape of databases available from Power Systems Research and how clients typically access and use the databases. Next week, in Part 2 of this discussion, he’ll explain how component modules are assembled to detail important attributes about the engines and equipment such as Turbos, Transmissions and Axles.

Transcript

Welcome to the PSR PowerTALK podcast, produced by Power Systems Research.

00:06 Joe Delmont:

From Power Systems Research I’m Joe Delmont, editor of PSR PowerTALK. Today, we’re talking with Joe Zirnhelt about PSR’s database offerings and how their clients use them to grow their markets. In the next episode, we’ll talk about some examples of component modules; which increase the power of their databases.

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Strong Post-pandemic Growth Expected into 2022-23 for North America

Yosyf Sheremeta
Yosyf Sheremeta

SUMMARY.  After the GDP declined 3.5% last year, the worst performance in almost 75 years, the US economy is set for a strong comeback.  There are many reasons to be optimistic about the economy for the next few years, including strong readings of macro-economic factors combined with the economic cycle reset backed by government initiatives and policies.

Our positive outlook is based on the reviews of key economic indicators, including GDP, unemployment, and inflation. 

During H1 2021, we witnessed a strong level of activities and a rebound for many industries.  As local governments eased lockdown restrictions, service-oriented industries gained traction and that translated to an overall increase of economic activities across many industries. 

We expect this level of rebound to continue and we now expect even stronger overall growth for 2021.  The US economy is on track to reach or even surpass the growth level of 1984 – the highest one since 1950s.  In the near term, consumer spending will help drive demand and support the strong growth trend.

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Global Economy On the Path To Economic Recovery, Despite Increased Uncertainty

Yosyf Sheremeta
Yosyf Sheremeta

The global economy is on a healthy rebound trend, but issues with supply chain, logistics and the re-surgency of COVID-19 during Q3 2021 remained.  Power Systems Research witnessed a strong economic recovery globally in H1 2021; however, many challenges still remain.  The rebound will continue to vary widely among different regions/countries, but a complete recovery is not expected until the global pandemic is under control.   With some minor changes among regions and market segments globally, our overall forecast from last quarter remains in place, and that is good news to our industry players, OEMs, powertrain, and component suppliers.

The global economic performance last quarter was in line with our initial projections from earlier this year.  As we projected last quarter, we did not expect any rapid economic recovery in H2 2021, however, we continued to witness a steady increase in economic activities.  During the last quarter of 2021 Power Systems Research expects this trend to remain in place.

Government support in the form of fiscal policies and public health management are driving the economic rebound and largely explain variations in performance across countries. With the targeted monetary support to consumers and certain industries, the demand for products and services globally is coming back, and we expect this trend to carry over into Q1 2022.

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Indonesia Aims at Lead in Integrated EV Production

INDONESIA REPORT
Akihiro Komuro
Akihiro Komuro

Investment related to EVs is gaining momentum in Indonesia. While the government is aiming to upgrade the industry by mainly using nickel as a battery material, Hyundai Motor of South Korea and Hon Hai Precision Industry of Taiwan have announced their plans to produce EVs and automotive batteries. If the concentration of industries advances, the country will compete with Thailand, which is also making efforts to attract related industries, for the leading role in EV production in Southeast Asia.

At the Indonesia International Auto Show, which started in the suburbs of Jakarta on Dec 11, Hyundai Motor’s compact EV “Kona” attracted much attention. The company will begin production in 2022 at its plant in West Java province, which will soon be operational.

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Global: Recovery Is Strong, but Uneven

GLOBAL REPORT
Yosyf Sheremeta
Yosyf Sheremeta

SUMMARY.  The global economy performed very well in 2021 and continues to recover, along with trade, employment and incomes. But the revival is unbalanced, with regions/countries, businesses and people facing very different economic realities. Recent improvements also conceal structural changes, which means that some sectors, jobs, and technologies will not return to their pre-pandemic trends. Based on the most recent economic developments and trends, Power Systems Research remains somewhat optimistic about the global recovery.

Many of us hoped to be in the post-Covid phase by now, but it is evident that there is no quick way out.  The pandemic has had a profound impact on the world economy, and it will continue to challenge established norms of life and business into the foreseeable future.  As we start the new year, many challenges remain, new and old alike: re-surgency of COVID variants, restrictions on travel, supply chain challenges, shortages of materials/goods, inflation, and employment, as well as renewed geopolitical tensions across many parts of the globe.

Power Systems Research witnessed a strong economic recovery globally in 2021, despite regional differences.  Output in most OECD countries has now either surpassed or is about to reach pre-pandemic levels, but lower-income economies, particularly those where vaccination rates are low, are at risk of being left behind.  Furthermore, the rebound will continue to vary widely among different market segments.  

Global inflation re-surfaced in 2021 and presents a real risk to economic recovery in all regions. The renewed inflationary pressure risks lasting longer than was expected a few months ago.  The surge in retail and wholesale energy costs in late 2021 will undermine economic growth prospects for large parts of Europe and Northeast Asia well into 2022.  Rising food and energy prices already have impact on low-income households in particular. 

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