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In this episode of the PSR PowerTALK Podcast Chris Fisher, Power Systems’ Senior Commercial Vehicle Analyst, discusses the Q4 2020 global production facts and related forecasts for medium and heavy trucks.
Transcript
Welcome to PowerTALK Truck podcast February 2021. Produced by Power Systems Research, the leading supplier of global production data and forecasts to the engine power products and Components industries. Here’s today’s host, Emiliano Marzoli, Manager of Power Systems Research, European Operations.
Yosyf Sheremeta, PhD, Director of Product Management and Customer Experience, analyzes the Global economic outlook by region and industry segment.
Transcript
Welcome to the PSR PowerTALK podcast, produced by Power Systems Research.
00:06 Joe Delmont
From Power Systems Research I’m Joe Delmont, an editor of PSR PowerTALK.
Today we’ll talk with Yosyf Sheremeta about his global economic outlook. Yosyf is Director of Product Management and Customer Experience for Power Systems Research.
The Hyundai Motor Group has announced its “Hydrogen Vision 2040,” which states that 2040 will be the first year of the popularization of hydrogen energy. The company plans to launch new models of all commercial vehicles, including heavy-duty trucks and buses, with hydrogen-electric and electric vehicles. The goal is to reduce the price of hydrogen-electric vehicles to the level of general electric vehicles by 2030 by developing a next-generation hydrogen fuel cell system that is inexpensive and has good performance.
The Hyundai Motor Group will not launch any new commercial vehicles powered by internal combustion engines in the future. It plans to mass-produce hydrogen-electric trucks in the country in the first half of next year and plans to apply hydrogen fuel cells to all of its commercial vehicle lineup by 2028.
Germany-based Torqeedo GmbH and Proton Motor Fuel Cell GmbH are jointly developing a hydrogen hybrid propulsion system for the marine industry. The ambitious and innovative project is provisionally named “Ma-Hy-Hy” (Marine Hydrogen Hybrid) and is funded by the Bavarian federal government until 2024.
Proton Motor Fuel Cell GmbH specializes in a high-tech innovative, climate neutral energy solutions, especially in CO2-neutral and emission-free hydrogen fuel cells and electric hybrid systems for stationary, automotive, rail and maritime applications. Development and production sites are located in the Munich area.
Torqeedo GmbH, as a part of the Deutz group, is a market leader in development and production of lithium batteries, solar charging equipment, electric and hybrid drives. It offers outboards and inboards, electric motors and hybrid drive systems ranging from 0,5 to 100 kW on motor level (up to 200 kW on system level).
VinFast, an automotive subsidiary of Vingroup, the largest conglomerate in Vietnam, announced that it ended orders for two types of gasoline-powered vehicles in early July. The models covered are SUVs and sedans, and the company now will only sell the Fadil, a compact gasoline-powered vehicle. The company has announced its plan to withdraw from the production of gasoline-powered vehicles by the end of this year and is hastening its shift to EV production.
VinFast states that the reason for the suspension of orders for the two models is that “procurement of parts has become difficult and the number of units delivered to customers was not as large as expected.” The company did not mention the timing of the suspension of orders for Fadil. The company began selling EVs in Vietnam in December 2021.
CNH Industrial Group says it is stopping the sales of construction machinery and equipment in the Chinese market after Dec. 31, 2022. This is another significant development by foreign brands in the Chinese market.
John Deere withdrew from the Chinese market after the original industrial structure was changed by the merger of the Chinese plant of Kobelco Construction Machinery Co., Ltd. At the same time, Hitachi Construction Machinery also made changes to Hitachi Construction Machinery (Shanghai) Co., Ltd., which is responsible for sales and services in China, and set up a new sales and service company, “Hitachi Construction Machinery Sales (China) Co., Ltd.”, which began operating Nov. 1, 2022.
On Dec. 29, 2020, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment announced that from Dec. 1, 2022, all off-road mobile machines below 560kw (including 560kw) produced, imported and sold and their diesel engines installed shall meet the requirements of the Chinese IV emission standard. The implementation time of Chinese IV emission of off-road mobile machinery above 560kw and its installed diesel engines has not been announced.
New Machinery requirements have been published for Europe and will replace the existing Machinery Directive Jan. 20, 2027. OEMs will have to be compliant with the new requirements on that day since there is no transition period.
With a heavy focus on safety, the environment and machine learning, the main takeaways are that these are EU regulations. This means that manufacturers will not have to wait for each member state’s upgrade of the regulation into law. This may streamline the process although it could mean big changes for some member states that previously had fewer requirements.
And there’s another important consideration. Since we have entered the digital age, all certifications and instructions can be in digital format. One exception is the non-professional machinery’s safety measures which must be included in paper format.
Daimler recently launched a class 4-5 medium-duty electric truck brand, RIZON, and Electrek got a chance to kick the tires and drive one around. They were impressed at how well it drives (for an 18k GVWR vehicle) and how comfortable it feels like it would be on long shifts.
Rizon is a new brand from Daimler Trucks focusing entirely on zero-emissions in the class 4-5 space. Trucks of this size don’t require commercial driver’s licenses, and you’re more likely to see them around your neighborhood, doing local delivery tasks, equipment rentals, moving businesses, and the like. So, it’s nice to have clean, quiet operation instead of noisy and stinky diesel vehicles.
A few years ago, the idea of manufacturing EV batteries in the US was fraught with hurdles, the key issue being the absence of a domestic lithium pipeline. The US had earned a reputation as the biggest producer of lithium in the world, as well as the biggest user of lithium in the world (it was even used in the drink 7Up), but this growth stopped over health concerns and the US dwindled down to just one operation by the time the EV market took off.
The lithium supply chain is still problematic to the extent that it involves digging new surface mines, but an alternative solution has been emerging in the form of geothermal brine, and the US Department of Energy is pulling out all the stops to promote it. In 2020, the US Geological Survey identified five states with major deposits: Arkansas, California, Nevada, North Carolina, and Utah.
In 2022, the penetration rate of new energy units in the commercial vehicle market exceeded 10%, and the penetration rate of heavy-duty trucks was close to 5%. The new energy subsidy policy was scheduled to be withdrawn at the end of 2023, but data for the January to October period is basically the same as the previous year. The share of new energy units for the commercial vehicle segment is far lower than the market share of 30.4% for new energy passenger vehicles.
With the accelerated adjustment of China’s transportation structure, it is expected that by 2025, the national railway and water freight volume will increase by 10% and 12%, respectively, compared to 2020, while the road freight volume will relatively decrease. In this context, bulk and ultra long-distance road transportation will gradually exit the market, and the advantages of short and point-to-point road trunk transportation with radii of around 500 kilometers and 300 kilometers will be further highlighted.
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