2020, A Year to Forget for MHV; 2021 Is Looking Better

Chris Fisher
Chris Fisher

SUMMARY: In this article we provide a global overview on a regional basis of the medium and heavy commercial vehicle market (GVWR > 6 MT’s) along with current trends and OEM happenings in North America.

NORTH AMERICA. MHCV production in North America is expected to decline by 35% in 2020 compared to 2019.  However, orders for class 8 trucks improved significantly in Q4 2020 as large fleets placed their orders for a 2021 build.  This appears to signal an improvement in demand for 2021 as the market aligns itself with the expected freight level moving forward.  The consumer segment was strong during the last half of the year and the industrial segment is now expected to improve, as well. 

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Recharging Slows Electrification of HD Trucks

CHINA REPORT
Jack Hao
Jack Hao

In 2022, the penetration rate of new energy units in the commercial vehicle market exceeded 10%, and the penetration rate of heavy-duty trucks was close to 5%. The new energy subsidy policy was scheduled to be withdrawn at the end of 2023, but data for the January to October period is basically the same as the previous year. The share of new energy units for the commercial vehicle segment is far lower than the market share of 30.4% for new energy passenger vehicles.

With the accelerated adjustment of China’s transportation structure, it is expected that by 2025, the national railway and water freight volume will increase by 10% and 12%, respectively, compared to 2020, while the road freight volume will relatively decrease. In this context, bulk and ultra long-distance road transportation will gradually exit the market, and the advantages of short and point-to-point road trunk transportation with radii of around 500 kilometers and 300 kilometers will be further highlighted.

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Volvo To Produce Trucks in China in 2022

Jack Hao
Jack Hao

Volvo Trucks expects to start production of the new heavy-duty Volvo FH, Volvo FM and Volvo FMX trucks in Taiyuan for local customers in China late next year.  Volvo Trucks has agreed to acquire a subsidiary of China’s Jiangling Motors Co to produce trucks for the local market starting late next year. JMC Heavy Duty Vehicle Co, which includes a manufacturing site in Taiyuan, capital of North China’s Shanxi province, will be purchased for $120.4 million (780 million yuan), said the Swedish truck maker.

Source:  China Daily     Read The Article

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CARB Is Phasing Out Heavy Trucks

NORTH AMERICA REPORT
Chris Fisher
Chris Fisher

In April, the California Air Resources Board (CARB) voted unanimously to finalize its Advanced Clean Fleets rule that requires all new medium- and heavy-duty vehicles sold or registered in the state of California to be zero-emission by 2036. 

Among these requirements is a new 2036 target for an end to diesel truck sales. This was lowered from an early 2040 target, with the thought that 2040 would be too late to reach California Governor Gavin Newsom’s goal for 100% zero-emission medium- and heavy-duty vehicles by 2045. 

The 2036 target is only one year after the 2035 target for passenger cars.  Also in the rule, state and local agencies must purchase 50% ZEV by 2024, and 100% ZEV by 2027.

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Mercedes-Benz Focuses on Autonomous Driving Trucks

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Daimler has realigned the focus of Mercedes-Benz on autonomous driving. Instead of self-driving cars, trucks are now at the top of its priority list.

Dalibor Sablic
Dalibor Sablic

The German car maker initially planned to concentrate on autonomous cars, explained Daimler CEO Ola Kallenius in a conversation with journalists at the canceled Geneva Motor Show. The group believes that self-driving trucks are initially the more attractive area, says the Daimler boss, according to the news platform news.com.au.

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Belaz Wins Tender To Sell 96 Mining Trucks To India

The world’s leading mining trucks OEM – Belaz – has won the opportunity to supply 96 mining trucks to India, taking the prize from US and Japanese manufacturers.

Maxim Sakov
Maxim Sakov

They are heavy 220-ton mining trucks. The supply will take two years. Twelve trucks will be shipped to India this year, and the rest will be sent in 2021. The total contract value exceeds US$ 300 million. Belaz also is completing a previous large contract with India for 77 trucks.

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PSR Analysis: Historically, Belarussian Belaz has supplied most of its trucks to Russian mines. However, this year it has suffered a dramatic decrease in demand from Russia. So, the OEM has had to shift its focus to other markets. Its product range includes dump trucks from 30 to 450 ton capacity, wheel loaders and dozers. OEM uses YAMZ, Cummins, MTU, Scania and Liebherr engines for its machines.   PSR

Maxim Sakov is a Market Consultant in Russia, for Power Systems Research

DATAPOINT: NA Off-Highway Trucks 2023 Production

1,600 units is the estimate by Power Systems Research of the number of Off-Highway Trucks expected to be produced in the United States and Canada in 2023. None of these trucks are electric units.

Unlike On-Road Trucks, Off-Highway Trucks are specifically designed to work in punishing environments and are made to haul material and debris around a work site. These purpose-built vehicles are not constrained by the weight limits of their smaller on-road counterparts.

Expect production to increase 5% by 2025 as the need for new equipment for mining operations increases.  It is speculated that there will be growth in the excavation of iron ore, nickel and bauxite followed by gold and copper.  PSR

Carol Turner is Senior Analyst, Global Operations, at Power Systems Research