Search Results for: russia-5-year-outlookmoving-stagnation-growth

2023-10-23

Global Economy Seeing Modest Growth with Positive Outlook

GLOBAL REPORT
Jim Downey

SUMMARY. Many factors are pointing to modest growth in Q3 2023. This should lead to total production globally growing at +2.4% in 2023 vs 2022 (it was 2.6% in Q2 2023), and the outlook for the next few years remains positive with growth accelerating from 2025.  Apart from Russia and Ukraine, the main countries to show a decline are South Korea, Slovakia, Netherlands. However, the segment picture shows some differences.

Several drivers are influencing the global economic picture.

  • Fuel prices eased earlier this year, recently they have grown slightly and are no longer showing signs of easing. This remains a serious issue.
  • Supply chains remain constrained and show no signs of improving.
  • The war in Ukraine shows no sign of a speedy conclusion, despite recent successes by Ukraine.
  • Ukrainian exports of wheat, other grains and fertilizer have declined massively following Russia’s ending on the Grain Deal. Alternative routes (overland, and via the Danube) simply don’t have the necessary capacity.
  • Inflation is easing, but it continues to be a major concern for central banks as they consider raising their interest rates. This will pose a risk to economic growth in all regions. Inflation and price increases are putting OEMs in a difficult situation.
  • Risk of recession continues in the background for several countries, notably China, USA and Germany, and this could drag other countries into recession.
  • Covid is still lingering with global deaths now at over 6.9 million, and a new variant has the medical world concerned.
  • Latent demand for machinery keeps building, which is a positive sign.
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2021-08-21

Most Regions Will Post 20%+ Growth in Truck Production

Chris Fisher
Chris Fisher

Editor’s Note: This is an updated report from the Q2 2021 Truck Production Index report produced by Chris Fisher and Jim Downey, Vice President-Global Data Products, in July 2021.

Question: What is the global truck production picture? What is the outlook?

PSR Opinion: Overall, medium and heavy truck demand will finish the year on a strong note, and continued strength is expected into 2022.  On-going supply chain disruptions will continue to impact production throughout the rest of the year and likely into 2022.

Question: What kind of global production volume do you expect for this year?

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2022-03-21

Russia Shuts Down Half of Auto Plants

RUSSIA REPORT
Maxim Sakov
Maxim Sakov

March 10, 2022–The volume of working auto production facilities in Russia has dropped by 45% since the invasion of Ukraine. On March 3, work continued in Russia on 55% of the facilities for assembling LCVs and passenger cars, comparing to 2021. Last year, domestic operations produced 83% of sales in Russia.

Work continues at AutoVAZ (in Tolyatti and Izhevsk), Stellantis and Mitsubishi alliance (PSMA Rus plant), Autotor (Kia and Hyundai assembly), Nissan, Haval, GAZ, UAZ, Mazda Sollers and Isuzu. The total number of vehicles produced by these enterprises has reached 766,000, which is 55% of the sales produced by the Russian automotive industry last year. The total annual production capacity of Russian automotive industry is about 2.7 million vehicles.

After implementation of Western sanctions and the volatility of currency exchange, automakers started raising prices and stopped production and shipping cars. Companies such as Volkswagen, BMW, Renault, Mercedes, Hyundai, Toyota, Sollers Ford have announced the temporary closing of factories. Closed import to Russia Audi, Porshe, GM, Jaguar Land Rover, Lexus, Volvo, Honda, Mazda and others.

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2020-03-23

RUSSIA REPORT, March 2020

This report includes updates on these manufacturers: Haval, Claas, Aurus, and KAMAZ.

Haval To Build Engine Plant in Russia

This article first appeared in the March 2020 issue of PowerTALK™ News

Haval, the Chinese manufacturer, said it plans to build its own engine plant in the Tula region of Russia. Work is scheduled start this month (March 2020). The planned investment in the project is US$ 270 million. This information comes from press-service of Haval Motor Rus.

Maxim Sakov
Maxim Sakov

It’s expected that the new plant will produce 80,000 engines annually, increasing the localization level of SUVs by several thousand units annually. Total personnel number in automotive plant exceeds 1000 people.    Read The Article

PSR Analysis: The first Russian Haval plant opened in May of 2019. Current production capacity is 80 Haval SUVs. The plant will be located on a 10,000 sq.m. site next to the Haval automotive plant. It will provide more than 300 jobs.

Claas is Shifts Production of Tucano 320 Harvester To Russia.

In April 2020, Russian plant Claas in Krasnodar will start producing the Tucano 320 grain combine. During the first two years, this model will be produced simultaneously in Germany and in Russia. Beginning in 2022, the plant in Krasnodar will became the sole maker for this model. The move opens opportunities to increase production and export volumes for the Russian plant.

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2021-12-19

New Cars in Russia Cost More Than in USA and Europe

The prices for cars in Russia now exceed the prices abroad. The high prices are caused by high custom taxes, certification for Glonass satellite systems and exchange rates of national currency. After many global OEMs built assembly plants in Russia, prices for cars were equal to cars in other markets, and after fall of the Ruble exchange rate in 2014, cars became even cheaper. However, in 2021 prices have grown significantly because of a shortage of semiconductors.

For example, the minimum price of a Hyundai Sonata in the USA is US$ 24,150, equivalent to about 1,725,000 rubles. In Russia, a similar car is priced at 1,799,000 rubles. A Kia Seltos in the USA costs US$ 22,490 (about 1,605,000 Rubles); in Russia, the minimum price is 1,734,000 rubles. Cars such as the Toyota Camry, Toyota Corolla and RAV4 are also more expensive in Russia by about US$ 3,000-5000.

Read The Article

PSR Analysis: Actual prices are even higher in Russia because of dealer mark-ups. Sometimes, to buy a car, it’s necessary to pay 1.5-2 times the prices as a cost for “options”. As a result, there has been a 20% fall of sales in the country.   PSR

Maxim Sakov is Market Consultant – Russia Operations for Power Systems Research

2019-11-14

2019 GIE+Expo Posts Strong Growth. Battery Technology Continues Hot

GIE+EXPO: The Green Industry & Equipment Expo

GIE+EXPO is the annual gathering for all segments of the outdoor power equipment and lawn and landscape industry. The event is sponsored by the Outdoor Power Equipment Institute, the Professional Grounds Management Society and the National Association of Landscape Professionals.

This year, the show drew more than 26,500 people from around the world. The indoor exhibit floor and the Outdoor Demonstration Area covered 24,000 net sq. ft. more than last year.

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2022-03-20

Caterpillar Plans To Stop Production in Russia

RUSSIA REPORT

March 10, 2022—The American company Caterpillar, specializing in construction and mining machines, has suspended work at its plants in Russia because of the situation in Ukraine. Caterpillar said it is donating more than US$ 1 million to the victims of the crisis.

“We are deeply saddened by the tragic events continuing to occur in Ukraine and hope for a peaceful resolution to the crisis. Through the Caterpillar Foundation, we are donating more than $1 million to support both urgent and long-term needs of the Ukraine humanitarian crisis. We are complying with all applicable laws and evolving sanctions, while remaining focused on our employees, dealers and customers. Operations in Russia have become increasingly challenging, including supply chain disruptions and sanctions, and we are suspending operations in our Russian manufacturing facilities” – said in the company statement.

According to the company website, it has a production plant in Tosno (Leningrad region) and a distribution center in Moscow region.

Read The Article

PSR Analysis: Evidently, Cat business in Russia continues, however in reduced size. It’s not possible to maintain production operation with absence of parts. Same reasons were stated in press-release of Hitachi, which has also suspended production in Russia with Cat and Komatsu.   PSR

Maxim Sakov is Market Consultant – Russia Operations, for Power Systems Research

2022-01-22

MHV Production Growth Expected in 2022-2023

Chris Fisher
Chris Fisher

Summary: Global demand for Medium and Heavy Commercial Vehicles (MHV) rebounded in 2021 but overall growth in the segment was flat.  Going forward, we expect the growth to accelerate in 2022 and 2023.   The exceptions to this rebound trend are in China and India, which continue to decline and sharply drive overall global production numbers into negative territory. 

We expect global production volumes in 2022 to gain 3.7% vs 2021, with a positive trend in all regions, except for China, where we expect production volumes to be down -3.6% in 2022 vs 2021.  China experienced a surge in demand during 2020 due to the change in emissions regulations, so 2021 was down significantly, about 20%. 

North America: While supply chain disruptions continue to negatively impact the commercial vehicle market, medium and heavy commercial vehicle production is expected to finish 2021 15.8% higher than 2020.  The forecasted production growth rate is expected to continue to show improvement through 2023 as supply chain disruptions ease and truck capacity in the market begins to align with demand.  The disruption in the supply chain and on-going issues with Covid will continue to impact the market this year.

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2020-10-28

Production of BelAZ Dump Trucks May Be Started in Russia

Minsk has offered to Moscow to localize production of heavy mining BelAZ trucks in Russia. It was announced by deputy of Trade Minister Mr. Evtukhov.

“At the moment Belorussian colleagues have offered to produce BelAZ trucks in Russian Federation, to localize… I think, this project could be implemented – says Mr. Evtukhov on joint meeting of trade committees of two countries.

Note, that in Belarus since 9 August the protests have started. BelAZ workers also participated in meetings and strikes.    Read The Article

PSR Analysis: BelAZ produces one of the world’s largest HHP mining trucks (up to 450 ton capacity), and Russia was one of its key markets until this year. However, now the import volumes to Russia have dropped significantly. Today, production of similar trucks in Russia is localized by Caterpillar. Similar projects also are developed by local OEMs (Tonar, KAMAZ). So, BelAZ is searching for ways to keep its market share.    PSR

Maxim Sakov is Market Consultant, Russia, for Power Systems Research