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John Krzesicki brings over 25 years of experience in software sales, implementation consulting, and marketing to Power Systems Research. He has a broad software background spanning from Product Lifecycle Management, Simulation Modeling, 3D Printing, to Business Intelligence. The corporate cultures he’s worked within are equally as diverse from small start‐up companies like BL 3Dimension, to large companies like SAS, and to companies like VSA and RuleStream —where he helped grow the company from a small start‐up to a medium sized company that was eventually acquired by Siemens. Mr. Krzesicki has a Master’s and Bachelor of Science Degrees in Industrial Management from Central Michigan University.
John Krzesicki talks with Carrie Goetz about the trends in edge computing, a movement that shifts data processing from the cloud to local data centers closer to the applications.
Transcript
Welcome to the PSR PowerTALK podcast, produced by Power Systems Research.
00:06 John Krzesicki
Hello, my name is John Krzesicki with Power Systems Research. I’m a business development manager for the US and with me today I have Carrie Goetz who is a fractional CTO for multiple companies. She’s been in the business for many years. She was also voted as being one of the most influential women in the tech industry in 2020.
The de-carbonization of the transport industry is heavily dependent on the scaling up of electric vehicle production rapidly and massively, and this rests on scaling up battery mineral mining and refining. This means Lithium.
Benchmark Mineral Intelligence counts 40 lithium mines that have been in operation and producing lithium in 2022. But, by 2050, the company sees a need for 234 more lithium mines if there’s no battery recycling underway (which, of course, is completely unrealistic but is a place to start from for such an analysis).
“The long term path for lithium is set, yet the supply chain scaling challenge has just begun,” said Simon Moores, chief executive of Benchmark. “What this data shows is that we are at just the beginning of a generational challenge, not one that’s going to be solved in the 2020s.”
The heavy truck industry fell in the first half of 2022 by more than 63% from the previous year. According to the latest statistics from the China Automobile Association, for January to June this year, the overall sales volume of the domestic heavy truck market was about 380,000 units, a decrease of 63.6% compared with the same period last year.
In June, the sales volume of China’s heavy truck industry was only 55,000 units, a year-over-year decrease of 65%. The main reasons for the decline in heavy truck sales this year are the upgrading of emission standard from “China V” to “China VI” last year, which caused a pre-buy in the market, and the impact of the epidemic this year, which depressed the logistics and transportation market, further curbing demand for new trucks.
The heavy truck industry is a cyclical industry, and its development cycle fluctuates due to changes in environmental protection policies and the overall economy. Following a 14 month decline in sales, the primary concern in the heavy truck industry is this: When will there be a turnaround?
Inside China a state subsidy is the norm, but outside of China the position is very different. The level of involvement by the central government feels a lot like a subsidy, one that undercuts local manufacturers. The problem is especially acute when it comes to electric car production.
Many of China’s car companies are looking more and more to export markets to absorb some of their production. But for some countries, the electric car onslaught coming from China is seen as a threat to local companies and their workers. The EV revolution was never intended to displace domestic industries and workers but that seems to be happening.
The prices for cars in Russia now exceed the prices abroad. The high prices are caused by high custom taxes, certification for Glonass satellite systems and exchange rates of national currency. After many global OEMs built assembly plants in Russia, prices for cars were equal to cars in other markets, and after fall of the Ruble exchange rate in 2014, cars became even cheaper. However, in 2021 prices have grown significantly because of a shortage of semiconductors.
For example, the minimum price of a Hyundai Sonata in the USA is US$ 24,150, equivalent to about 1,725,000 rubles. In Russia, a similar car is priced at 1,799,000 rubles. A Kia Seltos in the USA costs US$ 22,490 (about 1,605,000 Rubles); in Russia, the minimum price is 1,734,000 rubles. Cars such as the Toyota Camry, Toyota Corolla and RAV4 are also more expensive in Russia by about US$ 3,000-5000.
PSR Analysis: Actual prices are even higher in Russia because of dealer mark-ups. Sometimes, to buy a car, it’s necessary to pay 1.5-2 times the prices as a cost for “options”. As a result, there has been a 20% fall of sales in the country. PSR
Maxim Sakov is Market Consultant – Russia Operations for Power Systems Research
Rostselmash, the largest Russian AG machine maker, during the period into 2024 will increase investments for production development from US$ 275 million to US$ 390 million (19.9 billion Rubles to 28.5 billion Rubles, respectively).
Initially, the transmission plant was scheduled to make 90,000 gear units per year, but as soon as the plan of tractor production was corrected, planned output of the transmission plant was increased to 150,000 gear units per year. Also, three new painting lines were added.
In the beginning of September Rostselmash started building a new plant in Rostov-Don. It will make tractors, road construction and communal machines. The new plant will make 5,000 machines per year.
PSR Analysis: With the increased harvest in Russia, increased prices for grain and the remaining State support program, Rostselmash has increased resources for a larger investment program. However, another reason for increasing investment is the growing inflation, which requires additional spending. PSR
Maxim Sakov is Market Consultant – Russia Operations for Power Systems Research
SUMMARY. 2021 was a year of big hopes for economic recovery and pandemic management, and, overall, the economic rebound was strong. Looking at the state of the economy in general, and the key economic indicators such as GDP, interest rates, employment levels, etc., the North America market finished the year on a very high note. At the same time, development of new pandemic variants as well as ongoing issues with supply chains have led to manufacturing issues.
The second half of 2021 brought steady economic activities and strong economic recovery. Despite this strong performance, many existing and new challenges were seen. Problems from pandemic-related supply chain disruptions, logistics backlogs, and semiconductor shortages to new virus variations and labor market issues have contributed to slower growth in Q4 2021 than during the first half of last year.
Let’s break it down. The “Great Resignation” means companies must make themselves more attractive to new hires, and it provides those workers who remain more leverage to change corporate cultures from the inside.
With help of government support and targeted fiscal policies, the US economy showed a strong comeback in 2021. Furthermore, the growth trajectory is well positioned to continue to expand into the next few years, however, at much slower pace, than in 2021.
At the same time, there are many reasons for us to be optimistic about this trend. Our positive outlook is based on the reviews of key economic indicators, including GDP, unemployment, and inflation. In our previous forecasts, we discussed recovery trends for the post-pandemic period, and called for a return of demand for most markets in 2021. Last year, we witnessed a strong level of activities and an economic rebound for
In 2020, NEFAZ, a subsidiary of KAMAZ, made 202 electric buses. In 2021, it plans to double the production of this innovative transport.
Today, in Moscow has 400 working KAMAZ electric buses, half of which were supplied during 2020. “We can make machine, which became tech leader on domestic market. We could enter Moscow passenger transport market. It changes the scale of the business and our respect to own product,” says KAMAZ general director Sergey Kogogin.
Maxim Sakov is our Russia market consultant based in Moscow. He has been with Power Systems Research since 2011. Maxim has an MBA specializing in Marketing and has over 19 years of experience in the power products and drive train industry. He has worked as a Deck Officer in merchant marine, as a Sales Director for Unichimtek a Russian high-tech company and as Business Development Representative for Cummins Filtration in Russia. Maxim has extensive industry expertise in the technical, sales and marketing.
Transcript
Welcome to the PSR PowerTALK podcast, produced by Power Systems Research.
00:06 Emiliano Marzoli:
From Power Systems Research, hello everyone. I’m Emiliano Marzoli, editor of PSR PowerTALK, and today I will discuss the economic outlook for Russia with Maxim Sakov, our marketing consultant in Moscow. Maxim provides our clients with economic and production forecasts for Russia each quarter. And thank you for joining us today, Maxim.
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