According to a June announcement from the Ministry of Transport, 11 ministries and agencies—including the Ministry of Transport and the National Energy Administration—have developed the Implementation Plan for Promoting Large-Scale Application of New Energy Heavy-Duty Trucks.
The plan states that by 2030 the penetration rate of new energy heavy-duty trucks will reach 40%, with the total stock exceeding 1.6 million units, accounting for approximately 20% of the overall heavy-duty truck fleet. This initiative aims to accelerate the green and low-carbon transformation of the transportation sector.
In regions such as Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and the Fenwei Plain, the electrification rate for fixed-route short-haul transportation will surpass 80%. Leveraging the expressway network, charging and battery-swapping infrastructure for electric heavy-duty trucks will be developed to create zero-carbon highway freight corridors.
Under the plan, approximately 3,000 charging and battery-swapping stations for heavy-duty trucks will be supported and guided for construction, while hydrogen refueling stations and green fuel dispensing stations will be scientifically deployed in key scenarios. At the same time, the share of new energy heavy-duty trucks in expressway freight volume will reach 18%.
Source: MOT Read The Article
PSR Analysis. This plan sets a clear path for China’s heavy truck market. In simple terms, for every five trucks sold, two will be electric or hydrogen powered. Diesel trucks will be pushed out. The biggest growth will come from long-distance highway freight, the hardest area for new energy trucks to crack so far. The plan removes obstacles with hard targets: 30,000 km of zero-carbon corridors and around 3,000 charging and battery-swapping stations.
Truck makers will split into winners and losers fast. Giants like FAW, Dongfeng, and NHTC must go fully electric within four years, or lose 30%–40% of their market. New business models are now officially supported: truck-battery separation, battery leasing, and joint ventures between truck makers, logistics firms, and energy companies.
The real competition is no longer about who builds the best truck, it’s about who controls the full chain of vehicles, cargo, and charging. The supporting services market is where the real money is. Charging stations are the surest bet—demand fees for centralized facilities are waived until 2030.
Repair shops will boom because truck makers must now open their technology, ending the after-sales monopoly. Insurance must cover all new energy trucks, with premiums priced for safety performance, pushing makers to build safer vehicles. Battery recycling and asset management will become major industry on their own.
Exports are the most underestimated opportunity. With 1.6 million trucks running at home, Chinese new energy heavy trucks will become 15%–20% cheaper. Combined with unified standards and a complete “truck-road-energy-cloud” system, China can now export full packages—not just trucks, but the entire solution—to Southeast Asia, the Middle East, Latin America, and beyond. This is the same playbook that made Chinese electric cars dominate globally.
In short, the government is using its full power to force a diesel-to-new-energy switch in four years. Demand is no longer the question—the real challenge is whether battery production, the power grid, and skilled workers can grow fast enough to keep up. PSR
Jack Hao is Senior Research Manager – China for Power Systems Research
