Brazil’s vehicle distribution association Fenabrave projects that the total new vehicle market in 2026 will grow by approximately 3%, reaching around 2.7–2.8 million units in total sales across all segments compared with 2025 performance. This projection includes ~3% increases in passenger cars and light commercial vehicles, roughly 2.6–2.7 million units, and ~3.5% growth in truck registrations. Sales of buses are also forecast to rise ~3%.
The outlook is supported by expectations of improved credit availability, federal support programs such as Carro Sustentável and Move Brazil, and a strong commodities export environment, which bolsters freight demand. The heavy truck segment, which faced a steep decline in 2025, is expected to contribute to overall market expansion. Fenabrave’s forecast assumes modest macroeconomic improvement and continued easing of credit conditions.
Source: Automotive Business / Frenabrave Read The Article
PSR Analysis. The ~3% market growth projected for 2026 is consistent with updated industry fundamentals, particularly in commercial vehicles. While Power Systems Research initially assumed a lower growth for trucks and buses, actual December results came in below expectations, effectively lowering the comparison base.
With revised sales and production data now incorporated in the PSR database, and scheduled to be reflected in the Q2 2026 database revision, the growth outlook aligns closely with Fenabrave’s projections and stands above ANFAVEA’s expectations. This adjustment suggests that the 2026 expansion reflects a normalization from a weaker level in 2025, supporting a view of gradual recovery and improved stability. PSR
